606 Points In A Season

[Rain Man]

Nice response. I've been thinking about this a lot lately, so it's good to get feedback.

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Three things jump out at me:

1 - Dumbing down the fan base. Exciting games "sell" tickets and make it a must see experience. I think in time, you'll see a shift back from what we have right now. Nothing that goes back to the 70s/80s, but they're overly sensitive to the injury concerns (concussions, lawsuits, etc) and while safety is a big part of it (right or wrong), it's making more games more fun to watch by a broader fan base... again, I don't think that's dumbing it down though.

I hope we see a bit of a swing back. I like passing as much as anyone, but there has to be some defense involved instead of just pitch and catch. But pitch and catch is what excites the casual fan, so there's no argument from a marketing perspective to swing the pendulum back. 400 yards is good and 500 yards is great, so next year let's be at 550.

I think the best chance is an injury analysis. More passing may be producing more concussions and more knee injuries, because it produces higher-speed collisions. That'll take a few years to play out, though.

The only other argument is for the balance of the game, but I don't think that's an issue for the NFL. They did a show on "The Forward Pass" on NFL Network a couple of months ago, and I was struck when one of the people said, "We may be on the verge of seeing an NFL game where a team doesn't run the ball at all." I think the NFL doesn't mind that.

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

2- Core fan base ... honestly, how many teams will sell out or reach a near sell out with two 6-8 teams battling it out for nothing in week 15? You're going to have your diehards that show up, win or lose. If you want to blame weak attendance on something, look at ticket prices, etc - not the rules changes.

Yeah, I probably misstated the "full stadium" part. But my point is that you can count on the diehards if they like the sport, even if their team stinks. However, if you change the game to the point where the sport is less enjoyable, you're going to lose some of them. And every one of them is important in those B- and C-grade games.

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

3 - Decline in ratings ... see #2 above. Few people want to watch crappy teams play on TV. There are so many things competing for our attention and long gone are the days of just sitting around all weekend and watching whatever games are on TV. There's just too much to do now and you can catch the highlights and recaps online any time after those crappy games are over.

The TV ratings thing is interesting. If the casual fans just watch the highlights and recaps, then they don't need to watch the games and likely have little interest in watching the games. Therefore, ad revenues decline and the big TV deals decline. Maybe they can make it up by ad revenues on the incredibly annoying nfl.com site, but in the big scheme of things, it seems like a bad thing for the sport if fewer and fewer people watch the games.

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

If anything, the rules changes that favor offense makes games between the Browns and Jags late in the season worth watching.

I agree that it's a bit watered down when you view it from a defensive perspective, but big stadiums, suites, crazy contracts... there are big bills to pay and they'll squeeze the fans out of every nickle we want to give them.

You can't just say on a whim "I think I'll take my family to a game in a couple of weeks". You might get tickets, but you're going to pay a ton of money when it's all said and done for a family of 4 to experience an NFL game.

That is what the league has as a major issue... that is why nobody wants to go watch the Jags suffer through a game.

Ticket prices is another big challenge they face. When most people have a high-definition big-screen TV that's indoors, it's harder to get people to buy tickets. And it's worse when those tickets are triple-digit costs. Technology alone may take the crowd out of the game in the long-term, and that dilutes the user experience. I think that's different than marketing issues, but I sure think it poses a problem for all professional sports in the long run.

Do we have a future end game scenario where tickets aren't even sold, and all events happen in a studio setting? Or will stadiums get smaller? How relevant are game-day crowds in the financial models now? And how important is the game-day experience in building a bond with a team that will inspire franchise loyalty? It's hard to imagine that live crowds will ever go away, but I do think we've passed the zenith of live attendance at professional sports.