Other Sports Warren Buffet will give you 1 billion for filling out a perfect March Madness bracket

Deberg_1990 · 01-21-2014, 06:23 PM

You can't win if you don't play.

http://www.latimes.com/business/mone...#axzz2r5963nwi

Even billionaires like Warren Buffett think watching sports is more fun with a little money on the line.
Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is insuring a Quicken Loans contest that will award $1 billion to anyone who can correctly guess the winners of all 67 games in this spring's NCAA men's basketball tournament.

Buffett said the idea for the contest was his. He said he was talking sports with Quicken Loans founder and Chairman Dan Gilbert in November when he pitched the idea to insure a $1-billion prize for a perfect bracket.

“I said, ‘Here’s a proposition that might be interesting to you,’ ” Buffett said in an interview with The Times. “It heated up three weeks ago. We quoted a price. They worked out the mechanics of it.”

Quicken and Berkshire announced the contest Tuesday. It will be free and will be open to the first 10 million people who sign up online. If one person submits a perfect bracket, he or she will have the option of taking 40 annual payments of $25 million each, or a lump sum of $500 million. Multiple winners would split the money.

“This will be the most fun. Just imagine if there’s one person left [with a perfect bracket] at the last game,” Buffett said. “I will go to that final game with him or her and I’ll have a check in my pocket. ... I think we’ll be rooting for different teams.”

Buffett said one of his insurance companies is writing the $1-billion policy in exchange for a premium, which neither he nor Quicken would disclose.

He said the deal is not that different from many other insurance transactions his companies conduct. He evaluated the potential risk and then set a premium that gives him an edge against the probability of having to make a payout.

“We own Geico. We insure 10% of all the cars in the United States. You evaluate the risk and you charge a premium of what you think is appropriate. Overall, if you’re pricing it right, you should end up with a profit.”

Duke University mathematics professor Ezra Miller estimated that he even a skilled sports handicapper had about a 1 in 1 billion chance of correctly guessing all 67 winners. So if 10 million experts entered the contest, Buffett would need to charge a premium of about $10 million to break even against his expected results.

“If I were Warren Buffett, anything over $10 million, I would probably do it,” Miller said. “If $1 billion were going to ruin me, I wouldn’t. But it’s not going to ruin Warren Buffett.
“If he has to pay out $500 million, sucks to be him. But for the most part it’s pretty much a free $10 million. It all comes down to calculations.”

Buffett said his company is big enough to survive such a hit.
“We’ve lost more money in a given event before,” Buffett said. “Hurricane Katrina probably cost us $3 billion.

“We will put more at risk in a given insurance transaction than anyone in the world. But we have more capital than anyone in the world,” he said.
Buffett said he would be willing to strike a deal with anyone who gets deep into the tournament with a perfect bracket.

“If you get to the Final Four with a perfect bracket, I may buy you out of your position,” Buffett said. “I’ll make you an offer you can’t refuse. I will accept your phone call, you better believe it.”

He said that Quicken will run the contest, but Berkshire will be in charge of security.
“One of the things you do in a contest like this is evaluate the chances of someone gaming it in some way,” Buffett said. “In terms of the security, that will be our job. It’s their contest, but we have to be sure it’s secure. There’s a long history of people trying to make sports bets after the game is over.”

Brock · 01-21-2014, 06:25 PM

Quicken

TambaBerry · 01-21-2014, 06:25 PM

im in

edit: If I win I will try to buy the Royals

Stad · 01-21-2014, 06:27 PM

Where do we sign up? lol

Sorter · 01-21-2014, 06:28 PM

I don't believe I've ever done a bracket.

**Buck** · 01-21-2014, 06:29 PM

Someone needs to come up with an algorithm that can fill out every possible combo.

Third Eye · 01-21-2014, 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buck

Someone needs to come up with an algorithm that can fill out every possible combo.

There are WAY more than 10 million possible combinations, which is the number of entries allowed.

**Dartgod** · 01-21-2014, 07:00 PM

So that's 2 billion now?

cosmo20002 · 01-21-2014, 07:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Third Eye

There are WAY more than 10 million possible combinations, which is the number of entries allowed.

What if you throw out the possibility of a #16 advancing?
How about taking out 15 beating a 2? I know a 15 has beaten a two (Mizzou

), but its really, really rare.

That should shave off a couple million combos.

cosmo20002 · 01-21-2014, 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sorter

I don't believe I've ever done a bracket.

I don't even know what these words mean.

Hog's Gone Fishin · 01-21-2014, 07:13 PM

Where's rainman ? He needs to set up a poll for each team combination and let the power of CP pull together.

01-21-2014, 06:23 PM
Deberg_1990 In Search of a Life Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: San Antonio Tx. Casino cash: $34454	Warren Buffet will give you 1 billion for filling out a perfect March Madness bracket You can't win if you don't play. http://www.latimes.com/business/mone...#axzz2r5963nwi Even billionaires like Warren Buffett think watching sports is more fun with a little money on the line. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is insuring a Quicken Loans contest that will award $1 billion to anyone who can correctly guess the winners of all 67 games in this spring's NCAA men's basketball tournament. Buffett said the idea for the contest was his. He said he was talking sports with Quicken Loans founder and Chairman Dan Gilbert in November when he pitched the idea to insure a $1-billion prize for a perfect bracket. “I said, ‘Here’s a proposition that might be interesting to you,’ ” Buffett said in an interview with The Times. “It heated up three weeks ago. We quoted a price. They worked out the mechanics of it.” Quicken and Berkshire announced the contest Tuesday. It will be free and will be open to the first 10 million people who sign up online. If one person submits a perfect bracket, he or she will have the option of taking 40 annual payments of $25 million each, or a lump sum of $500 million. Multiple winners would split the money. “This will be the most fun. Just imagine if there’s one person left [with a perfect bracket] at the last game,” Buffett said. “I will go to that final game with him or her and I’ll have a check in my pocket. ... I think we’ll be rooting for different teams.” Buffett said one of his insurance companies is writing the $1-billion policy in exchange for a premium, which neither he nor Quicken would disclose. He said the deal is not that different from many other insurance transactions his companies conduct. He evaluated the potential risk and then set a premium that gives him an edge against the probability of having to make a payout. “We own Geico. We insure 10% of all the cars in the United States. You evaluate the risk and you charge a premium of what you think is appropriate. Overall, if you’re pricing it right, you should end up with a profit.” Duke University mathematics professor Ezra Miller estimated that he even a skilled sports handicapper had about a 1 in 1 billion chance of correctly guessing all 67 winners. So if 10 million experts entered the contest, Buffett would need to charge a premium of about $10 million to break even against his expected results. “If I were Warren Buffett, anything over $10 million, I would probably do it,” Miller said. “If $1 billion were going to ruin me, I wouldn’t. But it’s not going to ruin Warren Buffett. “If he has to pay out $500 million, sucks to be him. But for the most part it’s pretty much a free $10 million. It all comes down to calculations.” Buffett said his company is big enough to survive such a hit. “We’ve lost more money in a given event before,” Buffett said. “Hurricane Katrina probably cost us $3 billion. “We will put more at risk in a given insurance transaction than anyone in the world. But we have more capital than anyone in the world,” he said. Buffett said he would be willing to strike a deal with anyone who gets deep into the tournament with a perfect bracket. “If you get to the Final Four with a perfect bracket, I may buy you out of your position,” Buffett said. “I’ll make you an offer you can’t refuse. I will accept your phone call, you better believe it.” He said that Quicken will run the contest, but Berkshire will be in charge of security. “One of the things you do in a contest like this is evaluate the chances of someone gaming it in some way,” Buffett said. “In terms of the security, that will be our job. It’s their contest, but we have to be sure it’s secure. There’s a long history of people trying to make sports bets after the game is over.”
Posts: 68,734

01-21-2014, 06:25 PM	#2
Brock Say hello to my little friend Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Larryville Casino cash: $9598422	Quicken
Posts: 47,314

01-21-2014, 06:25 PM	#3
TambaBerry MVP Join Date: Jan 2013 Casino cash: $-1564459	im in edit: If I win I will try to buy the Royals
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01-21-2014, 06:27 PM	#4
Stad Starter Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. Casino cash: $9658669	Where do we sign up? lol
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01-21-2014, 06:29 PM	#6
Buck Take a Chill Pill Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: South Carolina Casino cash: $5920295	Someone needs to come up with an algorithm that can fill out every possible combo.
Posts: 44,607

01-21-2014, 07:00 PM	#8
Dartgod Wasted away again... Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: in Margaritaville Casino cash: $3520000	So that's 2 billion now? __________________ If you shed a tear for me, please make it a tear of joy. -Joe Tracy (Nzoner) . .
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01-21-2014, 07:13 PM	#11
Hog's Gone Fishin Fish are scared of me Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $-1579523	Where's rainman ? He needs to set up a poll for each team combination and let the power of CP pull together.
Posts: 40,649