6-10 Team with Chase Daniel

[Prison Bitch]

Someone at the game today made a comment that we should play Chase Daniel next year and "get rid of that clown Smith". Like always, I wanted to see what the data suggests.


We have almost no sample size for Daniel as he's played 2 games. We have a large sample size for Alex though. QB rating is extremely correlated to wins in the NFL. The average rating is 84: a team can expect an additional win (or loss) moving approximately 6 points from the median. Alex had a 93 rating and Daniel had a 75 rating today. That's an implied swing of 3 full games if we assume static performance.


While there is no way to know if Daniel would perform differently over the course of a season, it's doubtful any teams (or our own coaching staff) believe he could. Else, he'd be picked up as a starter. Whether Chiefs fans see any value finishing 9-7 vs 6-10 if you miss the playoffs regardless is another discussion.

[FloridaMan88]

Chase Daniel played like Alex Smith today.

[Pablo]

Originally Posted by Der Flöprer

Hey my bad if anyone thought I was advocating for Chase. I'm advocating a shit QB for 4 million per, versus a shit QB for 18 million.

I bet you're the sort of savage that would advocate dropping Bowe's $14 mil/per contract for some other average ass WR at 1/4 the cost too, huh?

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by Der Flöprer

Wanna know why I haven't given up on Alex yet? Because my choices are CHUEFS football or most likely no football. FML

I haven't given up on him, either.

I know there will be many moments of lulz to come.

Dance for me, clown.

[Mr. Flopnuts]

Originally Posted by Pablo

I bet you're the sort of savage that would advocate dropping Bowe's $14 mil/per contract for some other average ass WR at 1/4 the cost too, huh?

Actually, the circumstances of being able to walk from that with no penalty I absolutely would right now. Then I'd give that money to Jeremy Maclin.

[Mr. Flopnuts]

Or chip it in on Houston. Yeah, that's what I'd do. I'll take Houston over Hali and Bowe.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Originally Posted by Der Flöprer

Wanna know why I haven't given up on Alex yet? Because my choices are CHUEFS football or most likely no football. FML

Bullshit! You can become a Bowe Groupie with me! We'll stalk the poor, unsuspecting bastard-fans of whatever franchise elects to accept his greatness!

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Alex Smith is the equivalent of what the Brewers rolled out there last year. It wasn't awful. It was about the 20th best rotation in baseball.

Just crazy talk. In his last 55 games (a massive sample size for an NFL player), Alex has a 93.5 rating and is 38-16-1 or an 11-5 equivalent. In what bizarro world would that qualify as the "20th best" quarterback? We already know 16th spot is average which is an 84 rating.


Chiefs fans need to face reality: we aren't a very good team at most positions. This "juggernaut" ain't being held back by a quarterback.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Just crazy talk. In his last 55 games (a massive sample size for an NFL player), Alex has a 93.5 rating and is 38-16-1 or an 11-5 equivalent. In what bizarro world would that qualify as the "20th best" quarterback? We already know 16th spot is average which is an 84 rating.


Chiefs fans need to face reality: we aren't a very good team at most positions. This "juggernaut" ain't being held back by a quarterback.

And this juggernaught is never going anywhere with Alex Smith at QB, so I ask again, who gives a rat's ass?

[Lbedrock1]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Someone at the game today made a comment that we should play Chase Daniel next year and "get rid of that clown Smith". Like always, I wanted to see what the data suggests.


We have almost no sample size for Daniel as he's played 2 games. We have a large sample size for Alex though. QB rating is extremely correlated to wins in the NFL. The average rating is 84: a team can expect an additional win (or loss) moving approximately 6 points from the median. Alex had a 93 rating and Daniel had a 75 rating today. That's an implied swing of 3 full games if we assume static performance.


While there is no way to know if Daniel would perform differently over the course of a season, it's doubtful any teams (or our own coaching staff) believe he could. Else, he'd be picked up as a starter. Whether Chiefs fans see any value finishing 9-7 vs 6-10 if you miss the playoffs regardless is another discussion.

The problem with this is you are assuming that Chase has reached his cieiling. What I saw is Chase making passes that Smith would never attempt because he takes no chances at all which will keep this team mediocre.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by milkman

And this juggernaught is never going anywhere with Alex Smith at QB, so I ask again, who gives a rat's ass?

It probably won't, but in that case what should we do? Just stop playing football games? Purposely trot in a revolving door of QBs like the Raiders and Jaguars and Rams do and be a clown car of a team?

[aturnis]

Originally Posted by Gonzo

Nobody on any NFL team is more popular than the backup quarterback.

Nobody wants Chase Daniel. Not really anyway. Just pointing out that Alex is no better than any other 3 million dollar QB.

We might be best served to move on. Long term.

Short term, we can try to shore him up with a new everything else.

Where's your money?

[milkman]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

It probably won't, but in that case what should we do? Just stop playing football games? Purposely trot in a revolving door of QBs like the Raiders and Jaguars and Rams do and be a clown car of a team?

You build your team, find a cheap stop gap (read don't pay 2 2nd round picks and huge money)QB and bide your time till you find the right QB.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Just crazy talk. In his last 55 games (a massive sample size for an NFL player), Alex has a 93.5 rating and is 38-16-1 or an 11-5 equivalent. In what bizarro world would that qualify as the "20th best" quarterback? We already know 16th spot is average which is an 84 rating.


Chiefs fans need to face reality: we aren't a very good team at most positions. This "juggernaut" ain't being held back by a quarterback.

I wonder if Alex Smiths ultra conservative approach doesnt inflate his qb rating a bit with the lack of picks. He really doesn't play the position like anybody else in the NFL. Seems like with him you are comparing apples and oranges when putting his QBR up against guys that throw downfield.

You can inflate your record by beating a lot of bad teams by not turning it over and letting them beat themselves. Marty made a living at that.

[Prison Bitch]

Rating+ penalizes you for low yards/attempt. So you can't really game the system. And we know it correlates very well with wins....and we know turnover margin also correlates well. It works together.

If Alex was gaming the system it would show up in the standings. And he's winning a ton of games. Unless one argues this Chiefs team should've done better than 19-11 with him starting which I'd find baseless.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Rating+ penalizes you for low yards/attempt. So you can't really game the system. And we know it correlates very well with wins....and we know turnover margin also correlates well. It works together.

Yes. It's pretty obvious you can win a lot of games in the NFL by not turning it over and letting the other team beat themselves. Marty showed us sometimes you have to be able to go out and actually beat a team when you get to the playoffs.