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Old 12-28-2014, 05:15 PM  
Prison Bitch Prison Bitch is offline
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6-10 Team with Chase Daniel
Someone at the game today made a comment that we should play Chase Daniel next year and "get rid of that clown Smith". Like always, I wanted to see what the data suggests.


We have almost no sample size for Daniel as he's played 2 games. We have a large sample size for Alex though. QB rating is extremely correlated to wins in the NFL. The average rating is 84: a team can expect an additional win (or loss) moving approximately 6 points from the median. Alex had a 93 rating and Daniel had a 75 rating today. That's an implied swing of 3 full games if we assume static performance.


While there is no way to know if Daniel would perform differently over the course of a season, it's doubtful any teams (or our own coaching staff) believe he could. Else, he'd be picked up as a starter. Whether Chiefs fans see any value finishing 9-7 vs 6-10 if you miss the playoffs regardless is another discussion.
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Old 12-28-2014, 10:28 PM   #106
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GoChargers!!!!

Phillip was excellent today. He's a very clutch NFL QB.
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Old 12-28-2014, 10:28 PM   #107
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Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 View Post
Chase Daniel is a less good version of Alex Smith, is anyone arguing otherwise?
Daniel is better and cheaper. I'd definitely take Derek Carr over either one, though.
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Old 12-28-2014, 10:30 PM   #108
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GoChargers!!!!

Phillip was excellent today. He's a very clutch NFL QB.
Fivehead's still the biggest choker in history.
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Old 12-28-2014, 10:30 PM   #109
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QB passing rating is a fairly worthless stat. A high completion percentage with no interceptions inflates the system.

The best QB rating currently is the Total QBR. Its way more accurate in how a QB is actually doing that passing rating.
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Old 12-28-2014, 10:30 PM   #110
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I'd guess the first playoff game vs NO last year where he turned in a 9-18 103 yard 0TD dud.
But how many 3rd downs did he convert.
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Old 12-28-2014, 10:33 PM   #111
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QB passing rating is a fairly worthless stat. A high completion percentage with no interceptions inflates the system.

The best QB rating currently is the Total QBR. Its way more accurate in how a QB is actually doing that passing rating.
Rating is a very accurate predictor of wins, so it's hardly worthless. QBR correlates to wins almost identically as Rating does.
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Old 12-28-2014, 10:33 PM   #112
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He needs to brush Smiff's nuts out of the way of his screen first.
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Old 12-28-2014, 10:34 PM   #113
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anyone who takes Derek Carr over anyone is a moron

Derek Carr is legitimately awful
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Old 12-28-2014, 10:34 PM   #114
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Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry View Post
QB passing rating is a fairly worthless stat. A high completion percentage with no interceptions inflates the system.

The best QB rating currently is the Total QBR. Its way more accurate in how a QB is actually doing that passing rating.
Alex is 23rd this year by that metric.

On a side note, Manning has six of the ten best seasons of all time by that metric. Crazy.
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Old 12-28-2014, 10:36 PM   #115
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Alex is 23rd this year by that metric.

On a side note, Manning has six of the ten best seasons of all time by that metric. Crazy.
Crazy?

I guess people just don't understand he's the best QB ever.

Even his postseason QBR is the best ever.

But he sucks.
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Old 12-28-2014, 10:36 PM   #116
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anyone who takes Derek Carr over anyone is a moron

Derek Carr is legitimately awful
As you say this with your Alex Smith jersey on
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Old 12-28-2014, 10:37 PM   #117
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Crazy?

I guess people just don't understand he's the best QB ever.

Even his postseason QBR is the best ever.

But he sucks.
You'll never hear that argument from me. I'm not a blind homer like some.
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Old 12-28-2014, 10:39 PM   #118
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if people would actually trade Alex Smith for Derek Carr and then think "QB problem solved" they are COMPLETE morons
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Old 12-28-2014, 10:39 PM   #119
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But how many 3rd downs did he convert.
In the three playoff games last year, Russell averaged this line:

14-23 175yd 1td 0int

He really put that team on his back and willed them to the Title lulz
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Old 12-28-2014, 10:40 PM   #120
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Rating is a very accurate predictor of wins, so it's hardly worthless. QBR correlates to wins almost identically as Rating does.
Passing rating does not correlate to wins. You are a ****ing moron on that one.
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