Chiefs 6-10 Team with Chase Daniel - Page 15

Prison Bitch · 12-28-2014, 05:15 PM

Someone at the game today made a comment that we should play Chase Daniel next year and "get rid of that clown Smith". Like always, I wanted to see what the data suggests.

We have almost no sample size for Daniel as he's played 2 games. We have a large sample size for Alex though. QB rating is extremely correlated to wins in the NFL. The average rating is 84: a team can expect an additional win (or loss) moving approximately 6 points from the median. Alex had a 93 rating and Daniel had a 75 rating today. That's an implied swing of 3 full games if we assume static performance.

While there is no way to know if Daniel would perform differently over the course of a season, it's doubtful any teams (or our own coaching staff) believe he could. Else, he'd be picked up as a starter. Whether Chiefs fans see any value finishing 9-7 vs 6-10 if you miss the playoffs regardless is another discussion.

tk13 · 12-28-2014, 11:48 PM

What sets Seattle apart is they might have the best defense since the 00 Ravens or the 85 Bears. Wilson is an excellent QB and Lynch is an excellent RB. They play to their strengths, and do it efficiently, which might be the most important thing of all. But their defense is truly great. Peyton Manning and the Broncos had the greatest offensive season ever last year and the Seahawks just mauled them. And they've mauled everyone the last 5-6 weeks. If they continue to play defense like that, they are going to win. When you only have to score 10-14 points to win, you're going to be tough to beat.

ChiefsCountry · 12-28-2014, 11:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

how old are you?

If you're younger than 50, you're a ****ing reerun.

You can't rank guys you never ****ing watched.

You can compare history. Its not some evil thing. Its hard for you to see but whatever.

FloridaMan88 · 12-28-2014, 11:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Russell Wilson didn't have to beat anybody last year.

Russell Wilson still completed the occasional big pass play downfield when needed.

The Chiefs and their awful downfield passing game could not do that at all this season.

Also the Chiefs defense… especially in the secondary isn't anything close to what Seattle's was last year (and is this year).

Hootie · 12-28-2014, 11:51 PM

flip
flop
flip
flop

Alex is a top 12 QB. He's somewhere in the 12-18 range. People are acting like we were 3-13 this year.

He was 8-7 and as long as we were winning he always played good, efficient football. As soon as we started losing, his shortcomings all become shiny and bright.

He was a better QB this year than Matthew Stafford. Probably right up there with Joe Flacco. Shit, even Drew Brees.

This board is totally overreacting about how "shitty" Alex Smith is. He's not shitty. He's also in that tier of QB where the odds of a Super Bowl are slim and none.

But you flip floppers keep pounding your chest like you won some triumphant battle. I've always been realistic about Alex Smith. I knew he didn't suck, and I knew he wasn't great. When we traded for him I figured we'd be getting a Dilfer with Green upside which is basically what he has been.

ChiefsCountry · 12-28-2014, 11:52 PM

Wilson is an athletic version of Troy Aikman. Makes the big play when called on and is the leader of a bunch of crazies.

Hootie · 12-28-2014, 11:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

You can compare history. Its not some evil thing. Its hard for you to see but whatever.

so

since you NEVER watched Johnny Unitas play; what the **** are you comparing to come to the conclusion that Johnny Unitas > Peyton Manning

Seriously

I'm all ears.

Hammock Parties · 12-28-2014, 11:52 PM

No Green upside at all, though.

There are no alternate dimensions where he is #2 in passing.

In58men · 12-28-2014, 11:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

flip
flop
flip
flop

Alex is a top 12 QB. He's somewhere in the 12-18 range. People are acting like we were 3-13 this year.

He was 8-7 and as long as we were winning he always played good, efficient football. As soon as we started losing, his shortcomings all become shiny and bright.

He was a better QB this year than Matthew Stafford. Probably right up there with Joe Flacco. Shit, even Drew Brees.

This board is totally overreacting about how "shitty" Alex Smith is. He's not shitty. He's also in that tier of QB where the odds of a Super Bowl are slim and none.

But you flip floppers keep pounding your chest like you won some triumphant battle. I've always been realistic about Alex Smith. I knew he didn't suck, and I knew he wasn't great. When we traded for him I figured we'd be getting a Dilfer with Green upside which is basically what he has been.

Fans still happy with mediocrity. The Hunts love you.

GoChargers · 12-28-2014, 11:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

Alex is a top 12 QB.

Just stop posting and save yourself any more embarrassment. Oh wait, you can't... you're addicted to this site, as shown from how you literally tried to bribe your way back on when you got banned and finally snuck back in with a mult.

Pablo · 12-28-2014, 11:55 PM

Top 12 is a hilarious statement.

Hootie · 12-28-2014, 11:56 PM

well the board is acting like he's ****ing Ryan Leaf or something

Smith played some really good, efficient games this year and when we had a lead, he always protected the lead

he's terrible when we are trailing by 7+ and our team becomes one dimensional

and that's a huge issue

our future is very bleak with Alex Smith at QB, obviously everyone can see that

It's 2014. You have to throw the ball down the field. It isn't cute what Alex and Reid are trying to do to win football games. If he truly can't throw the ball down the field (and it's become apparent this might be the case), you have to move on.

He'll be the unquestioned starter in 2015, but it's time we start looking to the draft for replacements. A QB has to be drafted in the first 3 rounds this year.

tk13 · 12-28-2014, 11:57 PM

Smith isn't really Dilfer either though. He's much better than Trent Dilfer ever was. He really is. It's not like Dilfer was great at protecting the football, or even raised his level of play like Smith has in the playoffs.

People would be shocked if they ever went back and looked at Dilfer's stats. He wasn't even a game manager really. He completed less than 50% of his playoff passes and 150 yards was a good game for him.

Hootie · 12-29-2014, 12:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pablo

Top 12 is a hilarious statement.

is it hilarious?

Name 12 QB's that would have won more than 9 games on the Chiefs this year, without a doubt.

Smith is right there in that Flacco/Stafford/Cutler/Dalton tier. He's somewhere in the 12 - 18 range.

Were the Chiefs not competitive this year in 14 of 16 games? Am I missing something?

Smith is far from flashy. He's not anywhere close to the franchise QB who leads you to division title after division title...but there are only 4 or 5 of those guys.

After that? They all have flaws. Smith has some pretty obvious flaws.

But you'd be hard pressed to find 15 better guys than Alex Smith. Sure, 1 of them will throw the deep ball much better (Flacco) but do a lot of the other stuff much worse.

Try and be realistic.

Alex Smith hasn't had a losing year in 4 or 5 years now. He has the 3rd highest winning % in the NFL over the past 4 or 5 years. Say what you want, but Geno Smith will never have the 3rd highest winning % in the NFL, ever, because he makes too many mistakes.

I'm tired of Alex. I want, once in my life, an Aaron Rodgers.

But at least I can be realistic with the QB we have, rather than try and make shit up and pretend he's worse than Matt Cassel.

Hammock Parties · 12-29-2014, 12:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

well the board is acting like he's ****ing Ryan Leaf or something

He might as well be.

Homers love dope = haters no hope

In58men · 12-29-2014, 12:03 AM

10th anniversary of check downs coming 2015

12-28-2014, 05:15 PM
Prison Bitch Rabbi Goldmann Join Date: Nov 2012 Casino cash: $5450159	6-10 Team with Chase Daniel Someone at the game today made a comment that we should play Chase Daniel next year and "get rid of that clown Smith". Like always, I wanted to see what the data suggests. We have almost no sample size for Daniel as he's played 2 games. We have a large sample size for Alex though. QB rating is extremely correlated to wins in the NFL. The average rating is 84: a team can expect an additional win (or loss) moving approximately 6 points from the median. Alex had a 93 rating and Daniel had a 75 rating today. That's an implied swing of 3 full games if we assume static performance. While there is no way to know if Daniel would perform differently over the course of a season, it's doubtful any teams (or our own coaching staff) believe he could. Else, he'd be picked up as a starter. Whether Chiefs fans see any value finishing 9-7 vs 6-10 if you miss the playoffs regardless is another discussion.
Posts: 87,025

12-28-2014, 11:48 PM	#211
tk13 ... Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $-1997500	What sets Seattle apart is they might have the best defense since the 00 Ravens or the 85 Bears. Wilson is an excellent QB and Lynch is an excellent RB. They play to their strengths, and do it efficiently, which might be the most important thing of all. But their defense is truly great. Peyton Manning and the Broncos had the greatest offensive season ever last year and the Seahawks just mauled them. And they've mauled everyone the last 5-6 weeks. If they continue to play defense like that, they are going to win. When you only have to score 10-14 points to win, you're going to be tough to beat.
Posts: 56,751

12-28-2014, 11:51 PM	#214
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	flip flop flip flop Alex is a top 12 QB. He's somewhere in the 12-18 range. People are acting like we were 3-13 this year. He was 8-7 and as long as we were winning he always played good, efficient football. As soon as we started losing, his shortcomings all become shiny and bright. He was a better QB this year than Matthew Stafford. Probably right up there with Joe Flacco. Shit, even Drew Brees. This board is totally overreacting about how "shitty" Alex Smith is. He's not shitty. He's also in that tier of QB where the odds of a Super Bowl are slim and none. But you flip floppers keep pounding your chest like you won some triumphant battle. I've always been realistic about Alex Smith. I knew he didn't suck, and I knew he wasn't great. When we traded for him I figured we'd be getting a Dilfer with Green upside which is basically what he has been.
Posts: 56,356

12-28-2014, 11:52 PM	#215
ChiefsCountry The Insider Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Lake of the Ozarks Casino cash: $-1691248	Wilson is an athletic version of Troy Aikman. Makes the big play when called on and is the leader of a bunch of crazies.
Posts: 52,221

12-28-2014, 11:52 PM	#217
Hammock Parties I'll be back. Join Date: Nov 2002 Casino cash: $700478	No Green upside at all, though. There are no alternate dimensions where he is #2 in passing. __________________ Chiefs game films
Posts: 297,685

12-28-2014, 11:55 PM	#220
Pablo Ultrabanned Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Northland Casino cash: $-1990644	Top 12 is a hilarious statement.
Posts: 44,003

12-28-2014, 11:56 PM	#221
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	well the board is acting like he's ****ing Ryan Leaf or something Smith played some really good, efficient games this year and when we had a lead, he always protected the lead he's terrible when we are trailing by 7+ and our team becomes one dimensional and that's a huge issue our future is very bleak with Alex Smith at QB, obviously everyone can see that It's 2014. You have to throw the ball down the field. It isn't cute what Alex and Reid are trying to do to win football games. If he truly can't throw the ball down the field (and it's become apparent this might be the case), you have to move on. He'll be the unquestioned starter in 2015, but it's time we start looking to the draft for replacements. A QB has to be drafted in the first 3 rounds this year.
Posts: 56,356

12-28-2014, 11:57 PM	#222
tk13 ... Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $-1997500	Smith isn't really Dilfer either though. He's much better than Trent Dilfer ever was. He really is. It's not like Dilfer was great at protecting the football, or even raised his level of play like Smith has in the playoffs. People would be shocked if they ever went back and looked at Dilfer's stats. He wasn't even a game manager really. He completed less than 50% of his playoff passes and 150 yards was a good game for him.
Posts: 56,751

12-29-2014, 12:03 AM	#225
In58men I didn’t say mud, I said crud. Join Date: Jan 2012 Casino cash: $-1561974	10th anniversary of check downs coming 2015 __________________ Attendance Chief record 11-9
Posts: 30,926