LNBS: Can Alex Smith be "Fixed"?

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by O.city

Not turning it over is a skill, though and turnovers are usually a good predictor of W vs L's.


But when the not turning it over, comes at the expense of missing scoring chances, it starts to weigh the other way.

Exactly.

That's why it's imperative that they upgrade the WRs and OL significantly if they are going to give this plan of winning with Alex a real chance.


Can't give the guy that deal and then not relentlessly try to put the pieces around him that help him have every opportunity to have continued success.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Exactly.

That's why it's imperative that they upgrade the WRs and OL significantly if they are going to give this plan of winning with Alex a real chance.


Can't give the guy that deal and then not relentlessly try to put the pieces around him that help him have every opportunity to have continued success.

2 years ago, if somebody told you to build a team around Alex Smith starting from nothing, what would you say? I know what I'd say. Your defense better win games for you because your QB won't. Give him a good running game because you don't want him throwing all the time. Give him TEs because dude is too afraid to throw to receivers. The Chiefs at full health might have a top 3 defense. They have the best RBs in the league. They have a pretty good set of TEs.

The two areas where they're weak are two areas that Smith doesn't help... at all. He doesn't get rid of the ball quickly or read the blitz which doesn't help the OL. He won't throw to receivers unless they're wide open. Honestly, if the Chiefs add WR or OL options, with everything else Smith has as a supporting cast, there is no excuse for him not to be an AFC champion QB. I personally think even with those things, he's going to fall way short.

[ViperVisor]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

The two areas where they're weak are two areas that Smith doesn't help... at all. He doesn't get rid of the ball quickly or read the blitz which doesn't help the OL.

Repeating this ignorance doesn't make it true.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by ViperVisor

Repeating this ignorance doesn't make it true.

I guess because pro football focus said so, it must be true. It's refreshing to know Alex Smith is middle of the pack considering the guy almost never throws deep and considering the number of times he has a 3 step drop by playcall design.

[ViperVisor]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

I guess because pro football focus said so, it must be true. It's refreshing to know Alex Smith is middle of the pack considering the guy almost never throws deep and considering the number of times he has a 3 step drop by playcall design.

Middle of the pack? "To Throw" means total time behind the LOS.
When you are a mobile QB who runs 3 times a game it is going to be higher. Even so it is lower than mostly all run threat QBs at the top of the list.

Look at Avg Time to Attempt. Quick, as expected with the offense KC schemed.

Look at the Sack Time. Lower and sometimes a lot lower than most of the scramble/run QBs.

Stop making up crap and educate yourself.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by ViperVisor

Repeating this ignorance doesn't make it true.

LOL

You were spouting the same bullshit in the offseason.

Then Alex got sacked another 45 times.

LOL LOL LOL

He has been an oft-sacked QB ever since Harbaugh "fixed" him. And I bet he takes another 40+ sacks next year!

LOL LOL LOL

I bet if you look at his sacks per pass attempt over the last 4 seasons he's probably in the top 5.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by ViperVisor

Repeating this ignorance doesn't make it true.

Ok, that is some interesting data, and if you look beyond the sufrace completely supports the idea that Alex Smith holds on to the ball too long and supports the supposition that a lot of the sacks he takes are caused by him and not the offensive line.

First, let's look at the sack rates in the first 2.5 seconds. These sacks can be put fully on the OL, since they are getting beat so quickly and the QB doesn't have a prayer. Alex's sack rate is about 1.6% in the first 2.5 seconds, compared to a league average of 1.97%. He doesn't have anything close to the worst situation in the NFL in this regard, even if you allow for the fact that he uses his legs to bail him out of some situations. His passer rating in cases where he gets rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less is 103.4, compared to an NFL average of 96.8, again better than average.

Now let's look at what happens when he holds the ball longer than 2.5 seconds. We've all seen Alex cock his arm to throw the ball (presumably because he momentarily thought he saw an opportunity) then pull the ball down. Alex's sack rate after 2.5 seconds jumps up to 16.7%, compared to a league average of 10.5%. The blame on these sacks goes increasingly on the QB. For example, when playing behind the same OL, Nick Foles had a sack rate after 2.5 seconds of 4.2% while Mark Sanchez's sack rate is more than twice as high at 9.8%. Likewise Kurt Counsins' greater than 2.5 second sack rate was much lower than RGIIIs and Charlie Whitehurst's was much lower than the other Tennessee QBs. So many of the sacks that Alex took fall squarely on his shoulders.

And it's not like Smith is trading off sacks for better opportunities to throw the ball. Smith's passer rating when he holds on to the ball for 2.5 seconds or more drops to 76.3. compared to a league average of 80.8 in this situation. As he holds on the to ball longer, he gets sacked more than other NFL QBs and he becomes a worse QB than other NFL QBs. Bad things happen when he holds on to the ball. He does not see the field to find opportunities, he does not make things happen. He is best when he makes a quick read and dumps the ball, which is one of the things we criticize about him. But when he tries to do more than that, bad things happen. More than other QBs, he needs to make it a priority to get rid of the ball quickly in order to be successful.

Not all QBs follow this pattern. Ben Roethlisberer, Tony Romo, and and Aaron Rodgers all have QB ratings well over 110 when they hold the ball for more than 2.5 seconds. Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, and Ryan Fitzpatrick all have ratings over 90 when they hold the ball. Several QBs have a higher rating when they hold the ball than when they throw it quickly. They can afford to hold on the ball.