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Old 11-02-2015, 05:00 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***



Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:
Spoiler!

Spoiler!

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 11-17-2015 at 09:49 AM..
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Old 11-09-2015, 02:10 PM   #211
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Originally Posted by WhawhaWhat View Post
Good list, thanks for posting.

I would think 4 or 5 for $80M would be the cap for the Royals with Gordon, and that may even be pushing it.

Seems like a Zobrist and Parra combo for the same money (and fewer years) as Gordon by himself may be a better long term fit.

Don't love Happ, but whatever. Pelphrey at that cost for back of the rotation would be ok.
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Old 11-09-2015, 02:16 PM   #212
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WTF? So we pass on a 3 year deal to Zobrist at $17mm per, but we sign Gordon to a 5 year deal at $21mm per? No
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Old 11-09-2015, 02:20 PM   #213
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I think I'd rather have Zobrist than Gordon. Fortunately, Moore is making those decisions and not me.
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Old 11-09-2015, 04:09 PM   #214
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Old 11-09-2015, 04:11 PM   #215
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If we were in a similar position like we were this summer, where some rentals could really make a difference in us going all the way or sputtering in the playoffs, what would we have available? Anything?
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Old 11-09-2015, 04:15 PM   #216
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Any reports on the young pitchers we just drafted from Indiana?
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Old 11-09-2015, 04:18 PM   #217
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So here's a question relating to the MLB trade rumors article: If the Royals are willing to pay Gordon a deal for 5/105, why on earth wouldn't they go 10/200 on 26 year-old Heyward with a mid-contract option? Heyward is exactly a DM type guy, too. Plus plus defense, puts the ball in play, plus base-running, hard-working and high character.
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Old 11-09-2015, 04:24 PM   #218
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So here's a question relating to the MLB trade rumors article: If the Royals are willing to pay Gordon a deal for 5/105, why on earth wouldn't they go 10/200 on 26 year-old Heyward with a mid-contract option? Heyward is exactly a DM type guy, too. Plus plus defense, puts the ball in play, plus base-running, hard-working and high character.
Far, far too many years. Taking the risk of injury or decline with a lot of money past 4 or 5 years would be insane for a team like the Royals.
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Old 11-09-2015, 04:25 PM   #219
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Though it is just the opinion of mlbtraderumors, it's a far cry from the people that thought he could be had at 5/$80-$85MM. I don't think he is taking $20-$25MM less to stay with the Royals.
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Old 11-09-2015, 04:28 PM   #220
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Far, far too many years. Taking the risk of injury or decline with a lot of money past 4 or 5 years would be insane for a team like the Royals.
While it is a long contract, you can mitigate injury risk with insurance and your decline risk is probably even lower than the Gordon deal given that Heyward is 26 and Gordon is 31. Furthermore, the back-end of the deal will be offset by greater revenues from the new TV contract and inflation.
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Old 11-09-2015, 04:28 PM   #221
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Far, far too many years. Taking the risk of injury or decline with a lot of money past 4 or 5 years would be insane for a team like the Royals.
26 year old outfielders aren't injury risks. Even if he sucks the last few years, that would be a bargain. $20mm per year 8 years from now will be league average for a starter.
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Old 11-09-2015, 04:53 PM   #222
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Let's just exist in fantasy land for a minute:

If you can get Glass to bump the payroll to 155, you could even look at adding Heyward, Gordon, Zobrist and a #5 SP type. (155M payroll shouldn't even be a stretch after considering the revenue the last two years has brought and the earnings potential going forward. Additionally, the increased value of the TV contract if he keeps the fan-base engaged with a winning team will have a substantial impact on the franchise's value.)

As an additional idea, you could even look at dealing a Jarrod Dyson/Omar Infante package to provide some payroll relief in this scenario. Talk about a monster of a lineup, though:

1) Heyward
2) Zobrist
3) Cain
4) Hosmer
5) Morales
6) Moose
7) Perez
8) Gordon
9) Escobar

You have improved every aspect of your line-up here. Plus you give Holland a Medlen-like deal that gives him a chance to rehab, perform and re-enter free agency. (2/5.5/10[M])

Last edited by Nightfyre; 11-09-2015 at 05:01 PM..
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Old 11-09-2015, 04:54 PM   #223
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This team is going to be rebuilding after 2017. We may never see a core group of guys like this again in our lifetimes. Why not sellout to keep Gordon and Zobrist, enter 2016 and likely 2017 as WS favorites, and who cares if that screws us for a few years after 2017?

Opportunities for a 4-year WS run basically never come along for a team like the Royals. We have to go for this.
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Old 11-09-2015, 04:59 PM   #224
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This team is going to be rebuilding after 2017. We may never see a core group of guys like this again in our lifetimes. Why not sellout to keep Gordon and Zobrist, enter 2016 and likely 2017 as WS favorites, and who cares if that screws us for a few years after 2017?

Opportunities for a 4-year WS run basically never come along for a team like the Royals. We have to go for this.
I don't know that we have to. We should be huge favorites to win the division this year. If we need to add expensive players, we can find it at the deadline.
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Old 11-09-2015, 05:00 PM   #225
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This team is going to be rebuilding after 2017. We may never see a core group of guys like this again in our lifetimes. Why not sellout to keep Gordon and Zobrist, enter 2016 and likely 2017 as WS favorites, and who cares if that screws us for a few years after 2017?

Opportunities for a 4-year WS run basically never come along for a team like the Royals. We have to go for this.
I agree we should sell out to win now, as you must strike while the iron is hot. But I wouldn't write off our long-term prospects either. We have excellent deals in place with Ventura and Perez that provide some cost control. Additionally, we have some high ceiling prospects that can supplement the organization in the near-term and replace some of the outflow in 2018.
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