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Old 11-02-2015, 05:00 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***



Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:
Spoiler!

Spoiler!

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 11-17-2015 at 09:49 AM..
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Old 12-23-2015, 01:04 PM   #1861
mr. tegu mr. tegu is offline
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I don't get the desire for Kazmir. Just go look up his August through October splits the last three seasons. They are not good and represent a pretty consistent trend.
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Old 12-23-2015, 01:15 PM   #1862
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Well ok.....
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Old 12-23-2015, 01:17 PM   #1863
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Originally Posted by mr. tegu View Post
I don't get the desire for Kazmir. Just go look up his August through October splits the last three seasons. They are not good and represent a pretty consistent trend.

2013, he was actually better in he second half than the first. It also was is first year back to a starter's workload.

2014, he definitely had a rough August.

2015, he was pitching home games in a park that's a pretty bad fit for him (Mickey Mouse park is pretty awful for lefty flyball pitchers). This tracks with him having the highest HR/FB rate in his career in the second half.

Outside of 3 starts against RH-dominated lineups at MM, he had a 2.61 ERA over the rest of the second half.
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Old 12-23-2015, 01:29 PM   #1864
Anyong Bluth Anyong Bluth is offline
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I don't get the desire for Kazmir. Just go look up his August through October splits the last three seasons. They are not good and represent a pretty consistent trend.
I posted this earlier, but thank you for bringing it up again in light of his name being discussed again.

Unless the organization has a pretty good idea on how to keep the bottom from falling out on his numbers after the ASB, I fear signing him.

He's exactly the kind of guy who they keep in the rotation and let him "pitch through it."

That gets more and more costly as we inch closer to Fall and down the stretch.
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Old 12-23-2015, 01:36 PM   #1865
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I posted this earlier, but thank you for bringing it up again in light of his name being discussed again.

Unless the organization has a pretty good idea on how to keep the bottom from falling out on his numbers after the ASB, I fear signing him.

He's exactly the kind of guy who they keep in the rotation and let him "pitch through it."

That gets more and more costly as we inch closer to Fall and down the stretch.

See my post. I think if you dig more deeply, the picture doesn't look quite as described.

As far as lightening his load/keeping him fresh, he did seem to have August slides in 13 and 14. I'd suggest lightening the workload early as a way to keep him fresher there.

The other room for improvement may be in convincing him to throw his slider more frequently to lefties. He has become more FB/change past few years, and lefties have hit him better than they did when he used the slider more.
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Old 12-23-2015, 01:49 PM   #1866
KCCHIEFS27 KCCHIEFS27 is offline
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I think Ned will essentially have a 6 man rotation to work with next season. I don't expect Kazmir, if signed, will have a rough stretch at the end. He also has a curveball and cutter that he rarely worked on, but if signed, the royals would have no problem working on those two pitches exclusively through spring training. No matter how hard he gets hit.
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Old 12-23-2015, 02:10 PM   #1867
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See my post. I think if you dig more deeply, the picture doesn't look quite as described.

As far as lightening his load/keeping him fresh, he did seem to have August slides in 13 and 14. I'd suggest lightening the workload early as a way to keep him fresher there.

The other room for improvement may be in convincing him to throw his slider more frequently to lefties. He has become more FB/change past few years, and lefties have hit him better than they did when he used the slider more.
I think the slider is what damn near barbecued him in Tampa Bay.

I believe he's gotten away from it for self-preservation as much as anything. He just never learned to throw it in a way that doesn't put too much torque on the elbow so he appears to use it as a show-me pitch these days.

Can't argue too loudly against that given how close he was to out of baseball not too terribly long ago.
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Old 12-23-2015, 02:14 PM   #1868
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Oh boy.. http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2015/12/23/...o-re-sign-him/

4 years for $50 mil? I don't care if we have no chance to sign him, but don't insult the guy during the process. Jeesh.
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Old 12-23-2015, 02:20 PM   #1869
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I don't trust Jim Bowden. He could be right, but so far he's the only guy reporting that and it's been a couple weeks now. He's not a Buster Olney or Rosenthal.
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Old 12-23-2015, 02:24 PM   #1870
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I just don't see that they'd offer him Zobrist money. Hard to believe.
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Old 12-23-2015, 02:36 PM   #1871
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Yeah, I still don't buy the offer Bowden reported.
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Old 12-23-2015, 02:39 PM   #1872
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I think the slider is what damn near barbecued him in Tampa Bay.



I believe he's gotten away from it for self-preservation as much as anything. He just never learned to throw it in a way that doesn't put too much torque on the elbow so he appears to use it as a show-me pitch these days.



Can't argue too loudly against that given how close he was to out of baseball not too terribly long ago.

I wouldn't want him to use it heavily, but a slider or curve or cutter would seem to help him a bit against lefties.

He actually has started to develop platoon splits the past few years because he has the best separation between fastball and changeup amongst starters in baseball (like 14-15 mph).

That would play well against the RH-dominant teams in KC's division (as long as he isn't pitching in a bad box that turns lazy warning track fly balls in any other park into 4-rows deep HRs to LF).
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Old 12-23-2015, 02:44 PM   #1873
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I'm probably in the minority but as much as I like and have appreciated Gordon's play, I think it would be foolish to give him a 5/80+ contract.

He's had significant injuries the past two seasons and at his age, future injuries are likely.
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Old 12-23-2015, 02:58 PM   #1874
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I'm probably in the minority but as much as I like and have appreciated Gordon's play, I think it would be foolish to give him a 5/80+ contract.

He's had significant injuries the past two seasons and at his age, future injuries are likely.
I don't think we're going to sign him either. I just kind of want to get it over with so it's done.

I think it's all on Dayton... no way he wants to be paying someone $20M per when they're 34, 35, 36. Moore CAN afford him, but he won't want to. It was either Mellinger or McCullough that wrote earlier that Royals scouts think he's already lost a step in the field. They've spent the whole offseason trying to soften the blow because it will be a major PR hit.
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Old 12-23-2015, 03:14 PM   #1875
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Oh boy.. http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2015/12/23/...o-re-sign-him/

4 years for $50 mil? I don't care if we have no chance to sign him, but don't insult the guy during the process. Jeesh.
That's flat out bullshit. I don't buy that number or this jack off for a second.
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