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Old 11-02-2015, 05:00 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***



Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:
Spoiler!

Spoiler!

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 11-17-2015 at 09:49 AM..
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Old 12-28-2015, 12:56 AM   #1951
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My gut feeling is Gordon will wait to try to suck out as much as he can, but in the end stays in KC. I don't think the money difference will be enough to make him want to leave.
I hope you're right, and I think it's possible.
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Old 12-28-2015, 08:53 AM   #1952
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If the Royals really did offer him 4/50, I can't see how he'd want to stay. That's an almost insulting offer.
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Old 12-28-2015, 09:10 AM   #1953
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Originally Posted by Lex Luthor View Post
You really don't understand the difference in local television contracts, do you?

They Royals local TV deal with Fox Sports pays them $20 million per year, and it's an ironclad contract that lasts through the 2019 season. The Los Angeles Dodgers get $250 million per year from their TV contract. That's why the Royals have to be very careful about how they spend their money. It's not a matter of being ****ing cheap. When one team has an extra $230 million every ****ing year, they are the ones who will sign the expensive free agents. Alex Gordon is an expensive free agent who is 35 years old.

After 2019 it will be a much more level playing field, because the Royals will get a better local TV deal. It won't come close to what the Dodgers get, but it will hopefully be close to the deal the Cardinals just signed: $1 Billion over 15 years, with $50 million the first year and escalations every year. But Moustakas, Hosmer, Cain, Escobar and Davis aren't going to wait until 2019 to get paid. They all become free agents after the 2017 season.

And even if the Royals get a sweetheart deal that exactly matches the Cardinals' deal, that's still $180 million LESS than what Dodgers get. Every year.

That's why it makes perfect sense for the Royals to refuse to break the bank for a 35 year old Alex Gordon. If they do, they have $100 million LESS to try to retain their younger free agents after 2017. They'll be competing with teams like the Dodgers to sign Hosmer and Moustakas. The Royals will never outbid the Dodgers, but I'd like to see them have enough free money to at least offer them enough money to make them consider staying at a hometown discount.

If Alex Gordon were to give the team a hometown discount and come back for 4 years at $60 million, and the Royals were to manage to make it to a 3rd World Series, THAT would set a helluva precedent.
This. For small market teams it is all about outperforming payroll. The reason they are competitive is they are getting huge production out of low payroll with guys like Hosmer, Moose, Cain and Eskie on their early deals, Madson, Young, Morales on redemption contracts. The probability of Gordon outplaying a $100M contract is very low.
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Old 12-28-2015, 09:28 AM   #1954
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The Royals messed up signing the Fox contract deal, I've listened to local sports radio DJ's say that Fox should re-negotiate the contract because it is to low and the Royals should be receiving more money.

I laugh at people who think like that, Fox would be fools to do that.
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Old 12-28-2015, 09:46 AM   #1955
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The Royals messed up signing the Fox contract deal, I've listened to local sports radio DJ's say that Fox should re-negotiate the contract because it is to low and the Royals should be receiving more money.

I laugh at people who think like that, Fox would be fools to do that.
Unless they are worried about the Royals going somewhere else after the deal is up. They may add additional years at a higher price now vs. an even higher price later when the Royals can negotiate with everyone else.

Same thing with Salvy wanting a new deal.
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Old 12-28-2015, 10:52 AM   #1956
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If the Royals really did offer him 4/50, I can't see how he'd want to stay. That's an almost insulting offer.
I've always found it difficult to have any sympathy for professional athletes who get insulted by contract offers that would give them more money than they could possibly spend in their lifetimes.

If a player wants to say "I'm going to take the other team's offer for $100 million because I'd be a fool to turn down $100 million", that's fine. If a player says "I find that offer insulting", then he can go **** himself.

The Cardinals initial offer to Albert Pujols in 2011 was a 5 year contract for $130 million. Pujols wife told the press that Albert was insulted by that offer. I certainly don't blame Pujols for taking the $254 million contract from the Angels. But for him to say a $130 million contract offer is INSULTING shows how out of touch with reality most of these overpaid athletes are.
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Old 12-28-2015, 11:48 AM   #1957
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I've always found it difficult to have any sympathy for professional athletes who get insulted by contract offers that would give them more money than they could possibly spend in their lifetimes.

If a player wants to say "I'm going to take the other team's offer for $100 million because I'd be a fool to turn down $100 million", that's fine. If a player says "I find that offer insulting", then he can go **** himself.

The Cardinals initial offer to Albert Pujols in 2011 was a 5 year contract for $130 million. Pujols wife told the press that Albert was insulted by that offer. I certainly don't blame Pujols for taking the $254 million contract from the Angels. But for him to say a $130 million contract offer is INSULTING shows how out of touch with reality most of these overpaid athletes are.
Nonsense. You can insult an employee no matter how large the offer if it's not close to market-based.
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Old 12-28-2015, 12:04 PM   #1958
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If the Royals really did offer him 4/50, I can't see how he'd want to stay. That's an almost insulting offer.
I don't think the Royals are that stupid though.
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Old 12-28-2015, 12:22 PM   #1959
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I think I'm enjoying the World Series win more now than when it happened. Over the past few days, I've been watching the various specials on the Series and the fan-made tributes. It's just incredible. To share this with my kids has been even better. There aren't too many days that we aren't rocking our WS gear.

Thank you so much to this team. It's been a great season that will likely get better with age.
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Old 12-28-2015, 12:29 PM   #1960
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I don't think the Royals are that stupid though.
it's concerning to me that it's been reported from a couple of places, but Royals haven't done anything to refute it.
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Old 12-28-2015, 12:32 PM   #1961
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it's concerning to me that it's been reported from a couple of places, but Royals haven't done anything to refute it.
If it's a starting point in the negotiation and Gordon chooses not to take offense, then it's not a bad strategy.

Trust the process.
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Old 12-28-2015, 12:42 PM   #1962
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If it's a starting point in the negotiation and Gordon chooses not to take offense, then it's not a bad strategy.

Trust the process.
that means it's true though in that scenario. And to me, that IS an insulting offer. I'd have started at 4/$70
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Old 12-28-2015, 02:57 PM   #1963
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If a baseball player is so out of touch and immature that they are "insulted" by an offer worth more than 10 million a year, then I don't want that player on my team. If its too low, fine, but I'd expect both sides to be rational adults about a salary negotiation.
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Old 12-28-2015, 03:17 PM   #1964
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I've always found it difficult to have any sympathy for professional athletes who get insulted by contract offers that would give them more money than they could possibly spend in their lifetimes.

If a player wants to say "I'm going to take the other team's offer for $100 million because I'd be a fool to turn down $100 million", that's fine. If a player says "I find that offer insulting", then he can go **** himself.

The Cardinals initial offer to Albert Pujols in 2011 was a 5 year contract for $130 million. Pujols wife told the press that Albert was insulted by that offer. I certainly don't blame Pujols for taking the $254 million contract from the Angels. But for him to say a $130 million contract offer is INSULTING shows how out of touch with reality most of these overpaid athletes are.
Meh. I've been insulted by job offers that weren't even that good that I'm sure I could have found someone who would think I was lucky to get such an opportunity.

Just because they are in a different universe of earnings doesn't mean they can't be insulted by job offers.

Insulted is a really strong word. It could be reported that he's insulted, when in fact he's disappointed how far apart they are. If he's being a petulant child, that's one thing. Or if it is a case like King Carl of the management being a petulant child, that's another. You can still be technically insulted, but still willing to work with the other party without harboring ill will. The word insulted carries a lot of negative connotation that isn't necessarily always the case.
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Old 12-28-2015, 03:17 PM   #1965
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If a baseball player is so out of touch and immature that they are "insulted" by an offer worth more than 10 million a year, then I don't want that player on my team. If its too low, fine, but I'd expect both sides to be rational adults about a salary negotiation.
Exactly.

I remember many years ago when Rickey Henderson signed a contract that made him the highest paid player in baseball. He was all happy and smiling. Then a couple of months later (still in the same offseason), somebody else signed a bigger contract. Henderson got pissed off and said he wanted to renegotiate.

That's about the time I stopped giving a damn if a player gets insulted by a contract offer that pays him more for one season than most people make in their lifetimes.
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