*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***

[duncan_idaho]

Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.

Spoiler!

11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates.
19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system.
20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task.

[DJ's left nut]

Congrats to you guys on keeping a homegrown star.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Steamer still likes him a lot, near 4 win protection (0 for Orlando). So now our team is up to 82 wins projected and we have 13M more to spend. Gallardo or Kennedy and you're pushing 85. That is in range already to win this sorry division, esp if you believe KC can keen exceeding the data projections.


Pitching is scary expensive now. We HAVE to hit on Zimmer or Almonte now. And soon.

I agree. Hitting on Zimmer, Almonte, or Mr. Unheralded Prospect will determine whether or not our competitive window stays open past 2017.

[Chiefspants]

Add in a Lincecum or Ian Kennedy and this will be a pitch-perfect offseason. I also would not be surprised to see us ink Holland to an incentive laden 3 year deal.

[DeepSouth]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Steamer still likes him a lot, near 4 win protection (0 for Orlando). So now our team is up to 82 wins projected and we have 13M more to spend. Gallardo or Kennedy and you're pushing 85. That is in range already to win this sorry division, esp if you believe KC can keen exceeding the data projections.


Pitching is scary expensive now. We HAVE to hit on Zimmer or Almonte now. And soon.

So PB, are you willing to give up the Royals 1st pick for Gallardo or Kennedy?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

His 2011 and 2012 seasons probably register as "great" offensive season, but he's been more of an above-average hitter than a great one.

At 8.4/WAR, he needs to produce 8.5 WAR for the Royals to break even. I think it's reasonable to hope he gives you one more great all-around season 4-4.5 WAR, legit all-Star level), one more above average, and then a couple as a quality/average type starter.

I expect he'll see some time at 1B in 2018 and 2019 as well (as will Salvador Perez), but still play some Lf (unless his defense in LF remains above-average).

Of course, if someone stakes a claim to 1B in the meantime, that could change. I

The 'per WAR' model is just so out of whack.

It says what the 'market' is but the market also includes absolute albatross contracts. It includes stuff like Josh Hamilton and CJ Wilson giving the Angels absolutely nothing for $40 million/season.

It's the average cost of a win share, sure - but it's not what a players true value should be measured as.

Look at it this way: A 'replacement level' team wins 48 games. If you figure a team were to go to the market and simply buy the additional 40 wins they'd need to be a playoff team then playoff teams would need in excess of a $300 million payroll at the $8.4 million/share level.

In order for a player to actually contribute surplus value to a team, I think they need to be at about $5 million/share. Paying retail isn't how you win championships so the retail market shouldn't be used as the barometer for success.

If the Royals only get 9 Wins out of Gordon over the next 4 seasons, that means he will have been a below average regular over those 4 seasons. An above average regular on a contender should be about a 2.5-3 win player. If you pay $18 million/yr and get a below average regular for your efforts, that's not a good contract, regardless of what the $$/WS model says.

A good target for Gordon should be about 12 wins over the life of that contract. It's attainable but not easy and for $18 million/yr, I don't think that's an unreasonable figure to ask to consider the contract a 'win'. That would make the threshhold for a successful contract about $6 million per win share and that's much more in line with what a successful team would hope to get.

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The 'per WAR' model is just so out of whack.

It says what the 'market' is but the market also includes absolute albatross contracts. It includes stuff like Josh Hamilton and CJ Wilson giving the Angels absolutely nothing for $40 million/season.

It's the average cost of a win share, sure - but it's not what a players true value should be measured as.

Look at it this way: A 'replacement level' team wins 48 games. If you figure a team were to go to the market and simply buy the additional 40 wins they'd need to be a playoff team then playoff teams would need in excess of a $300 million payroll at the $8.4 million/share level.

In order for a player to actually contribute surplus value to a team, I think they need to be at about $5 million/share. Paying retail isn't how you win championships so the retail market shouldn't be used as the barometer for success.

If the Royals only get 9 Wins out of Gordon over the next 4 seasons, that means he will have been a below average regular over those 4 seasons. An above average regular on a contender should be about a 2.5-3 win player. If you pay $18 million/yr and get a below average regular for your efforts, that's not a good contract, regardless of what the $$/WS model says.

A good target for Gordon should be about 12 wins over the life of that contract. It's attainable but not easy and for $18 million/yr, I don't think that's an unreasonable figure to ask to consider the contract a 'win'. That would make the threshhold for a successful contract about $6 million per win share and that's much more in line with what a successful team would hope to get.

Moving a team from replacement level to playoff level in a single season very likely would cost $300,000,000 for that season.

[alnorth]

huh, some of the salary is deferred, per Rosenthal. Wonder how much is deferred

[Sure-Oz]

So do they have enough money to get a SP and a RF

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by Sure-Oz

So do they have enough money to get a SP and a RF

Probably a starting pitcher. RF is going to be Dyson/Orlando.

[tk13]

What a great day. Hopefully Alex can stay healthy. I didn't think they'd be able to pull it off. Good for Dayton. I'm not surprised money is deferred. Anything past 4 years will be helped by the new TV contract.

Still expect us to go after a SP. We may not break the bank but I bet they make a move. Need more flexibility in the rotation.

[alnorth]

Gordon will be a 10/5 guy and have a full no-trade in 2 years. I'm not sure if I ever expected to have to care about 10-and-5 rights, since anyone we'd want to keep would probably be expensive.

[Lex Luthor]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Q

[ChiTown]

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

This deal just gets better and better:

Sources: Gordon salary in 1st yr of four-yr, $72M deal is lower, giving #Royals chance to make other moves. Deal also includes deferrals.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 6, 2016

I'm late to the party but,

#1. **** YES!!!

#2 THIS IS A ****ING AWESOME DEAL

#3 **** YES!!!!

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by alnorth

huh, some of the salary is deferred, per Rosenthal. Wonder how much is deferred

Probably smart to deferr some money to the 18/19 seasons. We will have some cheaper players on roster on their first time deal ie Mondesi/Starling etc.

[Great Expectations]

I might buy my first jersey.