*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***

[duncan_idaho]

Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.

Spoiler!

11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates.
19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system.
20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task.

[Prison Bitch]

Leake was the worst FA contract this year. I can't believe STL fell for it.

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by kcjayhawks5

The foul balls right back into his face are worrisome. It happens so often.

Concussions could end his career out of nowhere

Salvy refuses to wear the full head gear

His feet are constantly getting beaten up too


I cringe every time he get hit with a foul ball

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DeepSouth

If the Royals have to give up their 1st round draft pick, I'd rather have Wei-Yin Chen. In my opinion he is the best of the three.

This.

Chen is a no-shit #2 and really a fringe #1 if you get him away from Camden (to get his HR rate under control).

If you're giving up the pick anyway, Chen's easily the guy to pursue.

[Anyong Bluth]

This sends a message that no longer is every good player a la Damon, Dye, Beltran are just biding their time.

That's why all the so-called National guys reported as if they had inside information and kept "reporting" KC had no chance to re-sign Alex = bullshit!
Even dumb enough to claim the Royals offer was 4 years $50 million. That was an outright lie. Dayton isn't dumb, and the organization knows a range he's going to get salarywise.

You don't enter into negotiations by putting out an insulting number and create acrimony. I'm sure there offer was originally probably a 3 year deal to see if they could get it done. They knew full well that like Zobrist, some club could have overpaid and there's little to do if that was the case.

After the flurry at the start of FA died down, I have little doubt that discussions got more serious because teams, including the Royals, had a better feel for what and who they were competing with and ballpark numbers. So, Gordo probably got a 4th year conditional on a little less per year, and deferring a good amount until after the new TV deal as well as allowing the club to free up some available money to pursue FA now while the team is a contender.

Alex got his 4 years, overall more money, and his 1st choice of remaining a Royal, and coming back to play for a contender that just won a WS and have been there in back-to-back years.

The Royals fill their major hole in 1 of the corner outfield spots, get a structured friendly contract that doesn’t completely tie their hands until the new TV deal, and send a significant message to both the fans and the players in the clubhouse as well as potential free agents that the club is serious about winning and investing in talent.

Dayton really put the cherry on top, because having a more than likely lifer like Alex is a great ambassador for this community and the Royals place in it for the future. Is he Brett ? On the field, no, but as a face and recognizable icon on the 2015 WS team, definitely, and the younger fan base needs that so they have something to identify with and a desire to take their own kids to the park and cultivate the future Royals fans.

Ultimately, the money and years, and even if he doesn't earn every penny in the last year or two of his contract, doesn't mean a thing. What the Royals just acquired by him re-signing was a reprieve from the 90's and early 2000's. A ghost ship at sea with no captain, after Kauffman died, and everyone jumping overboard at first chance because it had become a glorified AAAA organization.

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah, but Leake may have anchored it a little bit as well.

Leake and Kennedy are projected for identical WAR's next season based on Steamer (which is usually pretty decent). Kennedy has those pretty K numbers that will give him value over Leake but Leake's athleticism and some additional durability could serve to even that out. Moreover, Leake's coming into his age 28 season whereas Kennedy is coming into 31.

I'd imagine they end up at similar AAVs, really. If there's enough interest, Kennedy can probably get the 4th year on there. 4/$60 doable for ya?

Probably. 4 years is a long time, but somewhere in the $54-60 range would be worth it IMO. At this point, you ride the wave and worry about a possible tear down later. Those flags in the outfield are worth it.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by Jerm

Hmm....

Said it before, losing a 1st sucks, but if he helps you defend a pennant is it worth it?

Anyone missing the guys we traded to get Zobrist and Cueto?

Didn't think so.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by Sully

Personalized.

Ageed.

I'm toying with getting a 'Yosted' jersey. Maybe, 15 for the jersey number.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by penguinz

Seen it, but still hilarious.

[suzzer99]

I'm still really surprised no one offered Alex 5. I really wonder if it was because they expected him to sign with the Royals anyway.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Leake was the worst FA contract this year. I can't believe STL fell for it.

Don't love it. That said, at least there's not a ton of risk in it.

There are few guys who are more 'sure bets' than Leake. That's not to say he's good - it's to say that you know pretty much exactly what you'll be getting out of him; a 4th starter that's going to give you about 2 WAR and 200 innings. Blah.

To me, they paid $15 million/season for a $12 million/season pitcher. It's an overpay, but one where I suspect they'll at least get solid production from him for the length of the deal and he's young enough that by the last 2 years of that deal, it's probably going to be below market given where salaries are trending.

Samardzija's is worse in that there's a better than average chance that he's a bullpen quality pitcher. His ceiling his higher than Leake's but man that floor is truly a crash point. I think Kazmir's is worse as well as I just don't see him holding up; the guy is a ticking timebomb, IMO.

I also look at the Cubs deal to Heyward that amounts to a 3 yr/78 million deal if/when he exercises his opt out as being absolutely insane. He's essentially the exact same player as Gordon and they just gave him $8 million more/season. Admittedly, its hard for me to be objective there, but that deal is just !@#$ing crazy to me.

There are some other nutty ones in there, but not as long term. Seriously, how the hell did Mike Pelfrey convince a team to give him 2/$16 million?

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

This.

Chen is a no-shit #2 and really a fringe #1 if you get him away from Camden (to get his HR rate under control).

If you're giving up the pick anyway, Chen's easily the guy to pursue.

Taking a successful pitcher away from a home run park has Moore written all over it.


http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/1...-contract.html
Wei-Yin Chen Seeking Five-Year, $100MM Deal
By Zach Links | December 17, 2015 at 12:10pm CST

Free agent pitcher Wei-Yin Chen is searching for a five-year, $100MM contract, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (on Twitter). At that price, Kubatko adds, it’s clear that the Orioles have moved on to other offseason targets. At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes projected that Chen would land a five-year deal worth $80MM. Apparently, the Scott Boras client is aiming higher.

[suzzer99]

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Rios was pretty terrible, no? I don't see how hard it would be to replace 450 largely ineffective PAs and sub-standard defense. And you didn't have Zobrist while you were pulling away from the rest of the central.

In the end, this was a no-brainer signing for the Royals, don't get me wrong (if nothing else, a healthy Gordon absorbs the 200 very similar ABs you got from Zobrist last year). But I think that only because I think he'll get the 12 WAR needed to 'beat' my calculus.

If he went out there and gave you 9 WAR over the life of this deal, I just don't see how that would be considered a good signing at that point.

Bottom line, Infante, and Rios in the regular season gave you zero. Literally, anything from those 2 spots ultimately means the club is better than last year in the regular season.
Not better than when you had Zobrist, admittedly, but I'm almost at the point where I feel Ben has taken only this mythical unicorn status.

I fully admit that my mancrush for Zobrist was big, and no doubt he was a fantastic pickup. Now reality is he's 32, and there absolutely no chance he earns his contract. The Cubs are serious contenders, and if he's part of them winning a WS, not a single **** will be given by the Cubs organization or fans. KC wasn't in that position moneywise, and unless they had a top 5 payroll in baseball, it's not a wise signing.

In light of our own pending free agents, who almost are still young and entering their prime typically, sinking that money instead of aggressively trying to ink Hos, Moose, Cain (maybe), Esky (maybe), and extending Sal, is doublely foolish.

Does no one think that come the trade deadline that if needed that a few guys who may potentially make this team more potent in the postseason won't be available?

Let's remember, Fallball and regular season baseball are 2 different animals. One's a marathon and you have to balance not fall behind the pack without leaving nothing in the tank. The other's a short track event. Get out of the break fast, warmed up and loose, and lean. There's no days off, you trim your rotation, and if you go on short rest it doesn't matter because the finish line is in sight right around the last turn.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

[chief4life]

Great day for Kansas City!