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Old 11-02-2015, 05:00 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***



Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:
Spoiler!

Spoiler!

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 11-17-2015 at 09:49 AM..
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Old 01-06-2016, 04:02 PM   #2311
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The context of my "eternity" comment was more about salaries.
Yeah, but as salaries go up, so does the value of team control.

If FA salaries go up 30% over the next 3 seasons, the value of those first 3 years at the league minimum goes up even more.
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Old 01-06-2016, 04:03 PM   #2312
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No dice because we have at least one real world example of how teams value draft picks.

Touiki Toussaint was the 16th overall pick for Arizona in the 2014 draft. In 2015 the Braves gave up nothing to acquire him and Bronson Arroyo. Arroyo was rehabbing from TJ surgery at the time and the Braves had no expectation of pitching him.

Instead they took on the remaining $10 million contractual obligation owed to Arroyo by the D-Backs in order to get Toussaint. And the industry savaged the D-Backs for it, BTW. It was largely seen as a steal, even though some were openly questioning if Toussaint had shown the ability to develop a 3rd pitch.

The Braves essentially traded $10 million for a first rounder when they assumed Arroyo's deal to get Toussaint.

I think $8-10 million is spot on.

I follow that. But the Kazmir signing seems to unwind much of that. There's no way Kazmir is worth.......(scratch all that, I just remembered Kaz has no comp pick)
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Old 01-06-2016, 04:05 PM   #2313
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I follow that. But the Kazmir signing seems to unwind much of that. There's no way Kazmir is worth.......(scratch all that, I just remembered Kaz has no comp pick)
That's also how Leake got what he got (no pick attached) and why Chen's market has been so slow to develop.
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Old 01-06-2016, 04:08 PM   #2314
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That's also how Leake got what he got (no pick attached) and why Chen's market has been so slow to develop.
The union needs to get rid of this asap. It's a clear transfer of value away from them. Whatever dipshit agreed to that needs to be fired.
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Old 01-06-2016, 04:11 PM   #2315
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The union needs to get rid of this asap. It's a clear transfer of value away from them. Whatever dipshit agreed to that needs to be fired.
It was a concession.
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Old 01-06-2016, 04:21 PM   #2316
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It was a concession.
What did the players get in exchange?
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Old 01-06-2016, 04:26 PM   #2317
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The union needs to get rid of this asap. It's a clear transfer of value away from them. Whatever dipshit agreed to that needs to be fired.
They weren't really given an option.

What I don't understand is why people are more upset by this system than they were the previous system. There have been compensation picks for decades and teams have always lost draft picks for signing upper tier FAs.

The only difference is that right now the team that used to have the player can control draft pick compensation whereas under the old system there was a ranking setup. Under the old CBA, there were Type A and Type B FAs. If you signed a Type A, you lost your pick to the team you signed them away from. Generally speaking there were more Type A free agents then than there are guys that get a QO now. The list for the last year of the old system included guys like Scott Downs, Mark Ellis, Carl Pavano, Dan Wheeler and Takashi Saito - you'd lose your first round pick if you signed those guys and they had been offered arbitration (which was actually cheaper than the QO was). The risk for offering those lower level guys was less, in fact, because arbitration was tied directly to performance so you weren't guaranteed that top end salary like you are now. You could offer Mark Ellis Arb and he'd get awarded what a mediocre 2b would, not the $15 million they're guaranteed under the new QO system.

The Cardinals got Lance Lynn for a pick they got after the Rays signed Troy Percival away from them. They'd picked up Percival off the scrap heap in June after he'd been away from baseball for a season. The Elias rankings system simply had screwiness all throughout it.

More teams used to lose picks than they do now. More players used to get offered arb than they get QOs now. It's not the new CBA that's doing this, it's the fact that league minimum salaries haven't gone up nearly as fast as FA salaries have and as a result, team control is now 10 times more important than it used to be.

It gets back to the same old saw - revenue disparity.

The MLBPA has nobody to blame here unless they're willing to just tell small market teams to **** off and die.
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Old 01-06-2016, 04:27 PM   #2318
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Old 01-06-2016, 04:33 PM   #2319
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Gordo press conference live now:
http://m.royals.mlb.com/kc/video/v537668483
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Old 01-06-2016, 04:47 PM   #2320
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Gordo press conference live now:
http://m.royals.mlb.com/kc/video/v537668483
Watching!
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Old 01-06-2016, 04:53 PM   #2321
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I love Alex in ways a straight, married man usually wouldn't love another man. Nice presser.
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Old 01-06-2016, 04:54 PM   #2322
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Alex looked very happy, as he should be.

The repartee between Moore and McCullough at the end was funny.
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Old 01-06-2016, 04:55 PM   #2323
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Which one of you bought him lunch today???

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Old 01-06-2016, 04:57 PM   #2324
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Which one of you bought him lunch today???

That's just hilarious.

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Old 01-06-2016, 06:24 PM   #2325
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Don't love it. That said, at least there's not a ton of risk in it.

There are few guys who are more 'sure bets' than Leake. That's not to say he's good - it's to say that you know pretty much exactly what you'll be getting out of him; a 4th starter that's going to give you about 2 WAR and 200 innings. Blah.

To me, they paid $15 million/season for a $12 million/season pitcher. It's an overpay, but one where I suspect they'll at least get solid production from him for the length of the deal and he's young enough that by the last 2 years of that deal, it's probably going to be below market given where salaries are trending.

Samardzija's is worse in that there's a better than average chance that he's a bullpen quality pitcher. His ceiling his higher than Leake's but man that floor is truly a crash point. I think Kazmir's is worse as well as I just don't see him holding up; the guy is a ticking timebomb, IMO.

I also look at the Cubs deal to Heyward that amounts to a 3 yr/78 million deal if/when he exercises his opt out as being absolutely insane. He's essentially the exact same player as Gordon and they just gave him $8 million more/season. Admittedly, its hard for me to be objective there, but that deal is just !@#$ing crazy to me.

There are some other nutty ones in there, but not as long term. Seriously, how the hell did Mike Pelfrey convince a team to give him 2/$16 million?

I don't have any problem with Leake. He is being fairly paid, because FA is an efficient system where players and teams have tons of info and data and even j side info. And since they don't always take the highest offer, we know that "grey zone" (zone of possible agreement) is quite efficient.


So it's not Leake or the terms. It's why they signed a SP anyway. The Cards are about 5th from the bottom of teams that need SP. Its a mis-allocation. You create way more value getting Holliday out of LF than the marginal value another SP gives you.


Of course, there's a reason they're running a perennial playoff contender while I'm building Legos with my toddler.
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