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Old 11-02-2015, 05:00 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***



Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:
Spoiler!

Spoiler!

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 11-17-2015 at 09:49 AM..
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Old 01-16-2016, 07:47 PM   #2596
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Who says there will be more inflation? The TV contracts are all set and in force for these deals. I'm predicting this is the ceiling outside of standard 3-5% raises
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Old 01-16-2016, 08:09 PM   #2597
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The CBA expires at the end of the year, and the obvious spot of contention will be the steep decline in player portion of revenues. Salaries are going to keep rising.
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Old 01-17-2016, 03:01 PM   #2598
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Duncan:

What are your thoughts on the Royals with the signing of Cain (along with the arbitrations signings of Dyson, et al) and the inking of Ian Kennedy?
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Old 01-17-2016, 03:42 PM   #2599
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Originally Posted by Lex Luthor View Post
Who gives a shit what Rany has to say about Dayton Moore's moves?
I do. Rany's been good, and understandably not as good now that he's significantly dialed down on the amount of time he devotes to following and writing on baseball. The guy's a dermatologist with a full-time practice and 2 offices, and little kids now. Other shit in life has dictated his lesser relevance, obviously, and he's been man enough to eat major humble pie for his original stance on the Shields / Davis trade for Myers. But, EVERYONE was coming out in criticism of the move and claiming Dayton made a desperate move out of fear of being fired.
Dayton laughed last and laughed hardest with a back to back World Series and a Championship ring along with Yost, who, again, EVERYBODY said was a doofus manager with no business being a major league skipper.

Ultimately, you know who cares about Rany's opinion? The Cubs new front office. The same one that came over from Boston and managed to fill their farm system with tons of young talent and are looking at being a legitimate contender for the WS next year. They interviewed him and offered him a job. If not for a new family with little kids and the a drastic paycut in giving up his medical practice, he would be part of one of the most respected front offices currently in baseball.
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Old 01-17-2016, 04:07 PM   #2600
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The CBA expires at the end of the year, and the obvious spot of contention will be the steep decline in player portion of revenues. Salaries are going to keep rising.
This is true - but only to the extent the depressed player portion of revenues is something that isn't caused by debt service on stadiums and team purchases. If it is, the union will have trouble grabbing that chunk.
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Old 01-17-2016, 05:40 PM   #2601
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This is true - but only to the extent the depressed player portion of revenues is something that isn't caused by debt service on stadiums and team purchases. If it is, the union will have trouble grabbing that chunk.
Why? Under that rationale, owners would just shield as much revenue as possible by purchasing hard assets. That only benefits the owners.
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Old 01-17-2016, 06:23 PM   #2602
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mosbonian View Post
Duncan:

What are your thoughts on the Royals with the signing of Cain (along with the arbitrations signings of Dyson, et al) and the inking of Ian Kennedy?

My thoughts are that the Cain deal is good for both sides. Year 2 is probably less than he gets in arb if he has another top 3 MVP finish, but more than he gets if he blows a hammy early in the year or regresses with the bat.

I'm pleased with the Kennedy signing. Think it makes this team better on day 1 of the season than a year ago.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Anyong Bluth View Post
I do. Rany's been good, and understandably not as good now that he's significantly dialed down on the amount of time he devotes to following and writing on baseball. The guy's a dermatologist with a full-time practice and 2 offices, and little kids now. Other shit in life has dictated his lesser relevance, obviously, and he's been man enough to eat major humble pie for his original stance on the Shields / Davis trade for Myers. But, EVERYONE was coming out in criticism of the move and claiming Dayton made a desperate move out of fear of being fired.
Dayton laughed last and laughed hardest with a back to back World Series and a Championship ring along with Yost, who, again, EVERYBODY said was a doofus manager with no business being a major league skipper.

Ultimately, you know who cares about Rany's opinion? The Cubs new front office. The same one that came over from Boston and managed to fill their farm system with tons of young talent and are looking at being a legitimate contender for the WS next year. They interviewed him and offered him a job. If not for a new family with little kids and the a drastic paycut in giving up his medical practice, he would be part of one of the most respected front offices currently in baseball.

Yeah. Rany is a bright baseball guy who was wrong and admitted it.

It's hard to get invited into the baseball community when you've established yourself as a legitimate professional in a real field. Hard to avoid a pay cut...
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Old 01-18-2016, 02:35 PM   #2603
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What's so bad about that contract? $23m a year for 7 years seems reasonable. If the going rate is $8m per WAR, he was worth $42m last year and $52m the years ago.

Is he not going to be worth 29 WAR over the next 7 seasons? That's all he needs to provide even if you don't account for inflation. Realistically, if he provides an average of 3 per season, it's a fair deal.
Yet more evidence that the $8 million/WAR calculus is a bad one.

Just another contract that actually fits when you run it through the $6 million/WAR analysis.
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Old 01-18-2016, 05:00 PM   #2604
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Yet more evidence that the $8 million/WAR calculus is a bad one.

Just another contract that actually fits when you run it through the $6 million/WAR analysis.
I'm not sure I follow...
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Old 01-18-2016, 05:09 PM   #2605
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Royals sign Cain to a 2 year contract to avoid arbitration.
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Old 01-18-2016, 05:12 PM   #2606
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I'm not sure I follow...
If Chris Davis at $23 million is a 'bargain' according to the $8.4 Million/WAR rule, it's more proof that the $8.4 million/WAR rule is silly.

A 1 WAR player isn't worth $8 million. A 9 WAR player isn't worth $75 million (Trout will not get that much in AAV).

Neither end of this scale ever works so why do we actually put any stock in the scale? Using it to justify an egregious overpay for a ridiculously flawed player is just absurd.
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Old 01-18-2016, 05:18 PM   #2607
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If Chris Davis at $23 million is a 'bargain' according to the $8.4 Million/WAR rule, it's more proof that the $8.4 million/WAR rule is silly.

A 1 WAR player isn't worth $8 million. A 9 WAR player isn't worth $75 million (Trout will not get that much in AAV).

Neither end of this scale ever works so why do we actually put any stock in the scale? Using it to justify an egregious overpay for a ridiculously flawed player is just absurd.
I was thinking that using the $6m number made the contract look dumb whereas the $8m number makes it look reasonable. I haven't spent any time analyzing whether or not those numbers are accurate, nor do I care to. I figure it's a good place to start in terms of a back of the napkin contract value analysis, though.
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Old 01-18-2016, 05:24 PM   #2608
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I was thinking that using the $6m number made the contract look dumb whereas the $8m number makes it look reasonable. I haven't spent any time analyzing whether or not those numbers are accurate, nor do I care to. I figure it's a good place to start in terms of a back of the napkin contract value analysis, though.
The 6 per figure requires that he managed 3.8 WAR/season for the life of the deal.

You've just made Chris Davis one of the top 10 highest paid position players in terms of AAV in all of baseball. I'd say expecting just a shade under 4 WAR/season is pretty fair.

You're not even asking him to hit 3/season to consider it a below market deal via the 8.4 analysis. To put that in perspective, Adam Lind managed 3.1 WAR last season and is a lefty hitter who plays 1b. Lucas Duda managed 2.99; another defensively limited lefty swinging 1b who's primary attribute is power.

If Chris Davis spends the next 7 years being a worse player than Lucas Duda and Adam Lind, that is NOT a good use of $23 million/season.
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Old 01-18-2016, 07:53 PM   #2609
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Dumb ass question from Big League Stew on Twitter.

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Old 01-18-2016, 08:37 PM   #2610
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