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Old 11-02-2015, 05:00 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***



Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:
Spoiler!

Spoiler!

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 11-17-2015 at 09:49 AM..
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Old 02-19-2016, 05:46 PM   #3076
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Originally Posted by Saul Good View Post
I'm worried that Dayton is falling in love with reclamation projects. Between Soria, Hochevar, Medlen, Minor, Young, and Kennedy, we could have purchased a top of the rotation starter and a decent second baseman. Were talking about nearly $35,000,000 worth of salary for those players in 2016.
What's the punchline?
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Old 02-19-2016, 06:11 PM   #3077
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saul Good View Post
I'm worried that Dayton is falling in love with reclamation projects. Between Soria, Hochevar, Medlen, Minor, Young, and Kennedy, we could have purchased a top of the rotation starter and a decent second baseman. Were talking about nearly $35,000,000 worth of salary for those players in 2016.

I don't think it's that. I think it's finding good value. Those are all short deals with small individual risk. Spreading the money out improves your depth and leaves you less vulnerable to a single UCL.

You're also looking at, minimum, two rotation members and likely three (or around 450-550 IP). As well as two key bullpen arms, and someone who has a good chance to be in the rotation next year.
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Old 02-19-2016, 06:16 PM   #3078
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More starting pitching depth!

Dayton, I am naming my first kid after you.
Is there something we don't know soon to occur?
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Old 02-19-2016, 06:19 PM   #3079
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saul Good View Post
I'm worried that Dayton is falling in love with reclamation projects. Between Soria, Hochevar, Medlen, Minor, Young, and Kennedy, we could have purchased a top of the rotation starter and a decent second baseman. Were talking about nearly $35,000,000 worth of salary for those players in 2016.
Gotta be one in every crowd.
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Old 02-19-2016, 06:26 PM   #3080
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
I don't think it's that. I think it's finding good value. Those are all short deals with small individual risk. Spreading the money out improves your depth and leaves you less vulnerable to a single UCL.

You're also looking at, minimum, two rotation members and likely three (or around 450-550 IP). As well as two key bullpen arms, and someone who has a good chance to be in the rotation next year.
I get what he's doing, but were talking about a quarter of our entire payroll. I'd rather pay $20,000,000 for an ace, $10,000,000 for a quality 2B, and find a solid bullpen arm for $5,000,000. All of these things are very doable with the money that went to these guys.

$15,000,000 to Soria and Hochevar seems absurd to me when they aren't even our 8th or 9th inning guys and we have serious question marks at SP, 2B, and RF.
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Old 02-19-2016, 06:43 PM   #3081
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Boom. I called that a while back.

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Old 02-19-2016, 06:47 PM   #3082
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Originally Posted by Saul Good View Post
I get what he's doing, but were talking about a quarter of our entire payroll. I'd rather pay $20,000,000 for an ace, $10,000,000 for a quality 2B, and find a solid bullpen arm for $5,000,000. All of these things are very doable with the money that went to these guys.

$15,000,000 to Soria and Hochevar seems absurd to me when they aren't even our 8th or 9th inning guys and we have serious question marks at SP, 2B, and RF.
But we always have question marks at SP, 2B, and RF. The heavy investment in relief pitching has been aces the past two years. Not to mention, last year's crop of questionable/risky signings played an integral part of winning the WS. Does it bite us this year? Maybe. But until otherwise broken, might as well stay the course.
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Old 02-19-2016, 06:52 PM   #3083
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Old 02-19-2016, 07:27 PM   #3084
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Originally Posted by Saul Good View Post
I get what he's doing, but were talking about a quarter of our entire payroll. I'd rather pay $20,000,000 for an ace, $10,000,000 for a quality 2B, and find a solid bullpen arm for $5,000,000. All of these things are very doable with the money that went to these guys.

$15,000,000 to Soria and Hochevar seems absurd to me when they aren't even our 8th or 9th inning guys and we have serious question marks at SP, 2B, and RF.
Herrera for sure getting the 8th? I think that is Sorias.
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Old 02-19-2016, 07:30 PM   #3085
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saul Good View Post
I get what he's doing, but were talking about a quarter of our entire payroll. I'd rather pay $20,000,000 for an ace, $10,000,000 for a quality 2B, and find a solid bullpen arm for $5,000,000. All of these things are very doable with the money that went to these guys.



$15,000,000 to Soria and Hochevar seems absurd to me when they aren't even our 8th or 9th inning guys and we have serious question marks at SP, 2B, and RF.

In a one-year vacuum, I'm with you. But the risk with that ace signing is pretty huge.

Hochevar is making $5 million, so I think you're already lined up there.
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Old 02-19-2016, 07:54 PM   #3086
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ESPN poll of execs:

Worst FA signing
1. Ian Kennedy 15
2. Heyward 8


Best minor league FA signing

1. Dillon Gee 10
2. Bronson Arroyo 6
3. Travis Snider 4

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14...-mlb-offseason
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Old 02-19-2016, 08:11 PM   #3087
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
ESPN poll of execs:

Worst FA signing
1. Ian Kennedy 15
2. Heyward 8


Best minor league FA signing

1. Dillon Gee 10
2. Bronson Arroyo 6
3. Travis Snider 4

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14...-mlb-offseason
Oh all the execs that haven't been to back to back WS, and won it last year.
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Old 02-19-2016, 09:42 PM   #3088
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
In a one-year vacuum, I'm with you. But the risk with that ace signing is pretty huge.

Hochevar is making $5 million, so I think you're already lined up there.
I look at this season as a one year vacuum. I'm not screaming bloody murder or anything, but we seem to have a ton of payroll tied up in luxuries for a team with 2 glaring issues in our lineup.
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Old 02-19-2016, 10:24 PM   #3089
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
ESPN poll of execs:

Worst FA signing
1. Ian Kennedy 15
2. Heyward 8


Best minor league FA signing

1. Dillon Gee 10
2. Bronson Arroyo 6
3. Travis Snider 4

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14...-mlb-offseason

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Old 02-19-2016, 11:29 PM   #3090
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*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
ESPN poll of execs:

Worst FA signing
1. Ian Kennedy 15
2. Heyward 8


Best minor league FA signing

1. Dillon Gee 10
2. Bronson Arroyo 6
3. Travis Snider 4

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14...-mlb-offseason

Every expert on MLBN has questioned the Kennedy signing. I believe it was 3rd on the list of worst offseason moves.

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-w...016-offseason/
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