Barnwell on Derek Carr

[the Talking Can]

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page...orget-help-nfl

Carr's offensive line allowed him to do things that were relative luxuries for Bortles and Bridgewater, like breathe in the pocket without fearing for his life. Carr was pressured on only 21.6 percent of his dropbacks, the fifth-lowest rate among starting quarterbacks. A quarterback who gets the ball out quickly can distort that number (see: Tom Brady), but other metrics suggest that wasn't the case with Carr. He took 2.44 seconds before his typical pass, 15th in the league. Carr's average throw traveled 7.67 yards in the air, which was slightly below league average and one full yard deeper than the typical Bridgewater pass (6.66)...


It's another Oakland credo to go after enormous receivers. Carr's average pass went to a receiver who was 74.3 inches tall (a little over 6 feet 2), giving him the fourth-largest receiving corps in football. (Jacksonville's grouping was third.) Sadly, they weren't always his friends. Oakland's pass-catchers, which will return virtually unchanged in 2016, dropped 5.1 percent of Carr's throws last year. That was the fifth-worst rate in the league. It's hard to see these receivers combining to drop as many passes in 2016, particularly Cooper, who should be healthier after struggling through plantar fasciitis a year ago. While analyses suggesting Cooper dropped 18 passes seem off the mark, ESPN Stats & Information has Cooper down for 10 drops on 126 targets, the second-highest total in the league behind Tampa's Mike Evans.

The one perhaps concerning quirk surrounding Carr's 2015 season is what happened as it went along: Namely, Carr got worse. A lot worse. His QBR during Weeks 1-9, covering Oakland's first eight games, was 11th in the league at 66.6. During Oakland's final eight games, Carr's QBR dropped to just 35.1, leaving him 28th out of 29 passers. Only Bortles, coincidentally, was worse. Carr's decline came under duress. He had the league's lowest pressure rate during the first half of the year, at 17.6 percent. Over the final eight weeks, that pressure rate leaped up to 25.0 percent. That was only eighth in the league, but it was enough to help throw Carr off track....


There is something that will have to improve, though, fluke or otherwise: Late in games, for whatever reason, Carr was a mess. He posted a 19.9 QBR in the fourth quarter and overtime, which was the second-worst mark in the league ahead of Nick Foles. Bortles, one spot ahead of Carr, finished at 31.2. Seven of Carr's 13 picks came in the fourth quarter and OT, despite the fact that he threw only 31 percent of his passes during that time frame. Only Matthew Stafford had a higher interception rate in the fourth quarter/OT (6.8 percent) than Carr (5.3 percent).

[O.city]

Originally Posted by staylor26

Stafford threw 41 TD's in year 3. Matt Ryan's had a 30+ TD season early in his career, now he's putting up Alex Smith #'s with Julio at WR. Foles had one of the best 10 or so game stretches in NFL history with his 27 TD's. Blake Bortles just threw 38 TD's in year two, while still having a bad season overall.

If you're going to get a boner over the TD totals that's fine, but let's not ignore the end of the season regression, the interceptions, and the atrocious 4th quarter stats.

I don't know if 38 tds in a year make it a bad year, especially for a 2nd year qb.

Carr may regress and or never improve in areas he needs to improve in. But 32 tds in his 2nd year is good progress from year 1.

[O.city]

Put this way, if the chiefs had a 2nd year qb on the track carr is on, I'd be pretty happy with it and excited for the future

[rico]

Originally Posted by staylor26

Stafford threw 41 TD's in year 3. Matt Ryan's had a 30+ TD season early in his career, now he's putting up Alex Smith #'s with Julio at WR. Foles had one of the best 10 or so game stretches in NFL history with his 27 TD's. Blake Bortles just threw 38 TD's in year two, while still having a bad season overall.

If you're going to get a boner over the TD totals that's fine, but let's not ignore the end of the season regression, the interceptions, and the atrocious 4th quarter stats.

Is it me, or did it seem like Matt Ryan seemed to dwindle a bit when Tony Gonzalez retired??

Man...it's crazy how if 1-2 pieces become missing, how badly a QB's stats will flounder. Matt Ryan used to put up some #'s.

Another note on Matt Ryan...Didn't he put up a crazy amount of INT's his final year in college and was still drafted early? That is a QB that confuses me.

[RunKC]

Carr needs to tune finer parts of his game. Last weekend he missed 3 wide open guys by poor ball placement bc he threw off his back foot.

Carr would be so much better here with a coaching staff that actually knows what they're doing.

[jjchieffan]

I liked Carr and wanted the Chiefs to draft him. I was really discouraged to see the Faiders take him. Since he is in Chokeland instead of KC, I hope that I was wrong about him and that this regression continues.

[ChiefsCountry]

I love it when our 11 year veteran franchise QB is still compared to the 2 year nUb. I mean the 11 year vet can grow, the 2 year nUb can't.

[the Talking Can]

Originally Posted by O.city

Put this way, if the chiefs had a 2nd year qb on the track carr is on, I'd be pretty happy with it and excited for the future

everyone would be...these people jerk off to bray

[PunkinDrublic]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Carr needs to tune finer parts of his game. Last weekend he missed 3 wide open guys by poor ball placement bc he threw off his back foot.

Carr would be so much better here with a coaching staff that actually knows what they're doing.

Oaklands shitty coaching is what will ultimately doom him if he stays there.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

I love it when our 11 year veteran franchise QB is still compared to the 2 year nUb. I mean the 11 year vet can grow, the 2 year nUb can't.

So have you actually read the thread or are you just starting with the argument you want to have and hoping someone takes the bait?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

So have you actually read the thread or are you just starting with the argument you want to have and hoping someone takes the bait?

I'm not jumping in with him

But there is a little bit of not looking in our own mirror here.

Now, I've always been a fan of alex, I think he's better than he gets credit for.

But he's not asked to do the things carr was last year. Yeah, carr struggled in the fourth quarter and against pressure, but if it weren't for him, alot of those games aren't close in the fourth anyway.

[BossChief]

Why is it that Chiefs fans always feel the need to not give credit where it's due to opposing players?

Carr was pretty good in his sophomore season where a lot of QBs have down years and the team improved the OL in front of him to improve the O and made some big moves to improve their defense, as well. That's gonna help them win games and for Carr to improve as a passer.

I have little doubt that KC takes the division and I still think the Raiders are a year away from the playoffs, but Carr is a good QB that's gonna be a premier passer once the old guard all hang em up.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Why is it that Chiefs fans always feel the need to not give credit where it's due to opposing players?

Carr was pretty good in his sophomore season where a lot of QBs have down years and the team improved the OL in front of him to improve the O and made some big moves to improve their defense, as well. That's gonna help them win games and for Carr to improve as a passer.

I have little doubt that KC takes the division and I still think the Raiders are a year away from the playoffs, but Carr is a good QB that's gonna be a premier passer once the old guard all hang em up.

You answered your own question. Nobody is denying Carr's potential, but you talk as if he's arrived, and he has not. There's not enough evidence to say he's going to be one of the best QB's in the NFL. That is exactly why I say he's overrated. I made the same mistake with Stafford, Ryan, Foles, etc. early in their careers, and I'm not making it again, especially not when I take the bad from last season into consideration. He has a ways to go, and anybody that disagrees is not looking at his 2015 season objectively.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by staylor26

You answered your own question. Nobody is denying Carr's potential, but you talk as if he's arrived, and he has not. There's not enough evidence to say he's going to be one of the best QB's in the NFL. That is exactly why I say he's overrated. I made the same mistake with Stafford, Ryan, Foles, etc. early in their careers, and I'm not making it again, especially not when I take the bad from last season into consideration. He has a ways to go, and anybody that disagrees is not looking at his 2015 season objectively.

Exactly. The majority opinion in this thread is that Carr is a solid young QB who has room to grow but seems to be given credit for what he COULD be without actually getting there just yet.

I don't see the Carr hate that people are railing against here.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by staylor26

You answered your own question. Nobody is denying Carr's potential, but you talk as if he's arrived, and he has not. There's not enough evidence to say he's going to be one of the best QB's in the NFL. That is exactly why I say he's overrated. I made the same mistake with Stafford, Ryan, Foles, etc. early in their careers, and I'm not making it again, especially not when I take the bad from last season into consideration. He has a ways to go, and anybody that disagrees is not looking at his 2015 season objectively.

There's too many factors to say either way.

Look at the guys you've mentioned and the situations they play in. Stafford is a big arrmed douche, but the Lions have a pretty dysfunctional system. I've never been a big fan of Matt Ryan, but once they got rid of Mike Smith and brought in the Patriot crap, it's gone downhill quick.

Organizational stability, players around them, etc. Time being, it seems the Raiders have a good thing going in those terms.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Exactly. The majority opinion in this thread is that Carr is a solid young QB who has room to grow but seems to be given credit for what he COULD be without actually getting there just yet.

I don't see the Carr hate that people are railing against here.

Eh, clay stumbled in and all hell kind of broke loose.

Pretty much what you'd expect.