Barnwell on Derek Carr

[the Talking Can]

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page...orget-help-nfl

Carr's offensive line allowed him to do things that were relative luxuries for Bortles and Bridgewater, like breathe in the pocket without fearing for his life. Carr was pressured on only 21.6 percent of his dropbacks, the fifth-lowest rate among starting quarterbacks. A quarterback who gets the ball out quickly can distort that number (see: Tom Brady), but other metrics suggest that wasn't the case with Carr. He took 2.44 seconds before his typical pass, 15th in the league. Carr's average throw traveled 7.67 yards in the air, which was slightly below league average and one full yard deeper than the typical Bridgewater pass (6.66)...


It's another Oakland credo to go after enormous receivers. Carr's average pass went to a receiver who was 74.3 inches tall (a little over 6 feet 2), giving him the fourth-largest receiving corps in football. (Jacksonville's grouping was third.) Sadly, they weren't always his friends. Oakland's pass-catchers, which will return virtually unchanged in 2016, dropped 5.1 percent of Carr's throws last year. That was the fifth-worst rate in the league. It's hard to see these receivers combining to drop as many passes in 2016, particularly Cooper, who should be healthier after struggling through plantar fasciitis a year ago. While analyses suggesting Cooper dropped 18 passes seem off the mark, ESPN Stats & Information has Cooper down for 10 drops on 126 targets, the second-highest total in the league behind Tampa's Mike Evans.

The one perhaps concerning quirk surrounding Carr's 2015 season is what happened as it went along: Namely, Carr got worse. A lot worse. His QBR during Weeks 1-9, covering Oakland's first eight games, was 11th in the league at 66.6. During Oakland's final eight games, Carr's QBR dropped to just 35.1, leaving him 28th out of 29 passers. Only Bortles, coincidentally, was worse. Carr's decline came under duress. He had the league's lowest pressure rate during the first half of the year, at 17.6 percent. Over the final eight weeks, that pressure rate leaped up to 25.0 percent. That was only eighth in the league, but it was enough to help throw Carr off track....


There is something that will have to improve, though, fluke or otherwise: Late in games, for whatever reason, Carr was a mess. He posted a 19.9 QBR in the fourth quarter and overtime, which was the second-worst mark in the league ahead of Nick Foles. Bortles, one spot ahead of Carr, finished at 31.2. Seven of Carr's 13 picks came in the fourth quarter and OT, despite the fact that he threw only 31 percent of his passes during that time frame. Only Matthew Stafford had a higher interception rate in the fourth quarter/OT (6.8 percent) than Carr (5.3 percent).

[vailpass]

Originally Posted by staylor26

What a stupid thing to say. There's no way of knowing that whatsoever. In fact, I'd imagine it's quite the opposite. Guys who a turnover machines usually don't change much. What happens when a QB who struggles with pressure no longer has a great OL? If Carr is a turnover machine now, he'll be ****ed when the Raiders have to pay him Mack and Cooper and can't just go get the top FA OL every other year.

3rd year pro QB whose QBR has trended up in his first two years and is widely held to be a future franchise QB.
32 TDs on 13 INTs last year.
Imagine he was a Chief with his first two years that look like this and tell me what you would say:

Year YDS TD INT Rating
2015 3,987 32 13 91.1
2014 3,270 21 12 76.6

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by staylor26

What a stupid thing to say. There's no way of knowing that whatsoever. In fact, I'd imagine it's quite the opposite. Guys who can't defend the run or beat starting OT's with multiple moves don't change much. What happens when an OLB who struggles with stopping the run or using a 2nd move no longer have production? If Ford is a terrible run defender and can't get pressure on good OT's now, he could be ****ed when the Chiefs have to cut him and the Chiefs can't just go get the top pass rusher in FA to replace him bc they are never available.

You should read this edited version.

You always say Ford will get better with no evidence but Carr won't?

[beach tribe]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

I am aware.

Just saying I disagreed with his assessment and cited my reasoning as to why.

And I agree.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by RunKC

You should read this edited version.

You always say Ford will get better with no evidence but Carr won't?

I've never said anything definitively about Ford. I'm sorry that I'm not an impatient whiny bitch about him like you and want to give him more than a half a season worth of starts before I give up on him.

As for Carr, I'm not saying that there's no hope, or that he can't get better. I'm saying we don't know whether the turnovers will decrease, just like I'm not aware if Ford will improve.

We literally just went through this shit less that a year ago with Fisher and look at where we are at now.

Also, everything you just said in that edit could be applied to a young Hali.

[beach tribe]

Originally Posted by staylor26

You can still score without turning the ball over, hence why our ball control offense was still top 10 in ppg, while the Raiders were 17th.

That PPG stat is a pretty solid one to base an argument on.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by staylor26

I've never said anything definitively about Ford. I'm sorry that I'm not an impatient whiny bitch about Ford like you and want to give him more than a half a season worth of starts before I give up on him.

I'm not saying that there's no hope for Carr. I'm saying we don't know whether the turnovers will decrease, just like I'm not aware if Ford will improve.

We literally just went through this shit less that a year ago with Fisher and look at where we are at now.

Carr has an overwhelmingly higher potential at this point. He's got the most TD's of any QB in their first 2 years and has actually done something. Ford got 3 sacks on a backup OT.

Ford has been in the NFL for 3 years now and he can't make a basic read on a run play to keep contain.

Carr is by far a better player than Ford right now and it's not even close.

[beach tribe]

Originally Posted by NWTF

I think he means the rate. I could be wrong.

IE if a QB passes for 35TDs you could/should expect him to have more picks than a QB that passed for 17TDs. Obviously the elite of the elite are the exception.

Generally to get high TDs you have to gamble and take risks to get some of those, and with those risks come more INTs. A lot of the offensive approach has to do with the strengths and weaknesses of the overall team.

Like Andrew Luck. He gets a lot of flack for his INTs but his D sucks so he has to make more drives count then say an Alex Smith or whoever the Broncos QB is this year, who can take a more cautious approach and pick and choose their battles knowing they have the lead, let the D do their thing, and maybe the next possession will be more favorable.

Andy Reid doesnt need Smith taking unnecessary risks when hes got a strong running game and defense thats the safer way to dictate the pace of the game more often than not. The colts dont have that luxury most of the time so turning Luck into a game manager isnt going to produce better results in the W L column. Still, QBs on teams that ask more of them still have to perform up to the level that is expected, so when they dont they still deserve a lot of the blame. Either their cut out to be a gunslinger or not. Failed gunslingers sometimes find success as game managers on well balanced teams later in their careers.

This is basically what I meant but it was worded incorrectly so....

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Carr has an overwhelmingly higher potential at this point. He's got the most TD's of any QB in their first 2 years and has actually done something. Ford got 3 sacks on a backup OT.

Ford has been in the NFL for 3 years now and he can't make a basic read on a run play to keep contain.

Carr is by far a better player than Ford right now and it's not even close.

Reading is fundamental:

To be clear, I'm obviously not comparing Carr and Ford on the same level here. Carr has clearly already proven he belongs as a starter, while Ford has yet to do that.

Also, it's been 3 years? One preseason game and he's already done with year 3? Interesting.

[RunKC]

He's off to a really bad start for a 3rd year player staylor. Even Andy agreed by subtling saying he played like shit last weekend.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by RunKC

He's off to a really bad start for a 3rd year player staylor. Even Andy agreed by subtling saying he played like shit last weekend.

Guys like Ingram, Hughes and Mercilus didn't break out till year 4, but you want me to give up on a Ford when he has significantly less real game experience than those guys did going into year 3?

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by staylor26

You can still score without turning the ball over, hence why our ball control offense was still top 10 in ppg, while the Raiders were 17th.

That's mostly due to our defense and special teams setting the offense up with favorable field position.

[ScareCrowe]

Originally Posted by Smellway

That's mostly due to our defense and special teams setting the offense up with favorable field position.

Of course it's also easier to set the offense up with good field position when the offense is punting & giving the defense a long field to defend.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by ScareCrowe

Of course it's also easier to set the offense up with good field position when the offense is punting & giving the defense a long field to defend.

you da real MVP

[New World Order]

Originally Posted by Mav

Again. This defense was NOT elite when Alex Smith got here. Go back and look. I was laughed at and mocked by suggesting Alex Smith helps the defense. Whether you like him or not, Alex's ability to control the game and not turn the ball over helps the Chiefs defense. Just facts.


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KC is first in starting field position per drive.

[Hammock Parties]

somehow a thread about david carr turns into dee ford

but it's all my fault rite guyz