Patrick Mahomes Might Force Chiefs Hand In 2017

[DaneMcCloud]

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/s...-hand-in-2017/

Patrick Mahomes might force Chiefs hand in 2017

The much-lamented quarterback class of 2017 is looking pretty good all of a sudden. Mitchell Trubisky is pushing the Bears decision-making process as much as John Fox can be pushed, Deshaun Watson is going to make Bill O'Brien at least think about his Week 1 status and, most interestingly, Patrick Mahomes has found himself in a perfect situation and is turning heads early.
Do you love Mahomes and consider him the most upside-riddled quarterback of this draft class? Congratulations! You are not actually a special snowflake. Everyone does. Mahomes has a cannon. It's unfair for Alex Smith, a genuinely nice human being who is an average-to-above average quarterback, that he finds himself once again squaring off against a young physical marvel on the depth chart. The good news for Smith is he looks really good this preseason. The bad news is so does Mahomes. Before we get to that, though, how much pressure can this guy actually put on Andy Reid? History tells us there is a good deal Mahomes could do to press Reid into playing him.

Reid waited a while to hand the starting job to the the first quarterback he ever drafted, Donovan McNabb, after taking the Syracuse product No. 2 overall in 1999. And when he finally did, in Week 10, the Eagles were out of the playoff race, sitting at 2-7. After letting McNab take his lumps in a relief role, it was time to see what the highly-drafted rookie had to offer as a full-time starter. McNabb got a rough welcome to the NFL when he made his NFL debut against the Bucs in Week 2, getting sacked six times by the eventual NFC Central champions (remember that this Bucs team was the basis for the eventual Super Bowl championship defense). In a fun twist of fate, the guy McNabb replaced as the starter was Doug Pederson, who is the current Eagles coach and former offensive coordinator for Alex Smith.

Andy Reid waited until Week 10 of Donovan McNabb's rookie season before naming him the starter. Two years later, Reid selected A.J. Feeley in the fifth round of the 2001 NFL Draft. That's not notable for Feeley being a guy who might have taken playing time, but he is another quarterback in a long list of Reid protégés who ended up being traded for a high draft pick. The point being, when Andy Reid latches onto a quarterback in the draft, people take notice. Reid went a long time between taking McNabb early and grabbing another quarterback. Again, notable. If Reid is spending high draft capital on a quarterback, there should be a belief he can win with said quarterback for a long time. He also probably thinks that quarterback is capable of winning and/or playing early. Patrick Mahomes was the 12th player drafted.

Kevin Kolb was the second quarterback taken by Reid with a high pick in his Eagles tenure. Kolb was taken out of Houston with a second-round pick in 2007 (the Eagles actually traded down out of the first round with the Cowboys who took Anthony Spencer). He didn't replace McNabb immediately, but Kolb is also a clear-cut historical marker in terms of Reid making sure he has quarterback insurance. McNabb was battling injuries during that stretch, coming off the Super Bowl loss to the Patriots, and would be gone after 2009.

That year featured a storm of controversy, too, with Michael Vick and Kolb nipping on McNabb's heels for playing time. Ultimately it was McNabb's team, but with Vick and Kolb on the roster, there were plenty of people chirping to see the other options. The backup quarterback is always the most popular guy in town, and that's been the case for Andy Reid's teams in the past.
Vick and Kolb ran the team in 2010 after McNabb left and then Kolb was traded. The "Dream Team" of 2011 followed, but it wouldn't be long before a draft pick caused trouble on the roster again. Nick Foles, taken in the third round of the 2012 NFL Draft, was firmly entrenched in Reid-style controversy within his first year. Foles started six games for Reid in 2012 and that led to serious concern about who should start in 2013, when Foles went 8-2 as a starter under Chip Kelly.

Ultimately what you see from Reid is a history of high draft picks playing early. McNabb was under center three quarters of the way through the season in his rookie year. Kolb was held at bay, but McNabb aged better than Reid expected and it still ended in McNabb being dealt to the Redskins. The Michael Vick thing was a different animal. Er, situation. Foles played quickly, starting multiple games his first year. Which brings us back to Mahomes, who has looked just absolutely tools-y this preseason. Mahomes, who played in Kliff Kingsbury's system at Texas Tech, is going to require some refinement. But he has everything you would want to see in a quarterback from a physical perspective. If you buy into Reid developing quarterbacks -- and why wouldn't you? -- Mahomes is a fascinating prospect. He has underrated speed and is strong enough too take hits and still make throws.

Mahomes is faster and stronger than just about everyone on the field. As a quarterback that is an undeniable advantage. He can shrug off blitzers but he can also deftly evade people coming at him on the rush. And if he needs to, Mahomes can whip a quick throw on short notice. All that is well and good, but the downside of Mahomes is he's not harnessed right now either. He can be, and it's easy to see Reid figuring out how. Mahomes might be a stronger, slightly slower, more twitchy version of McNabb with a better arm. Alex Smith is on notice, although he knew that coming into the preseason. The guess here, two weeks into the season, is that Smith won't lose his job as long as the Chiefs are winning.

If Kansas City falters or the offense looks flat, don't be surprised to see Mahomes. Reid's history makes it clear he is willing to run with a young talent he trusted in the draft. He believes in his quarterback development almost as much as he believes in his talent evaluation. Maybe more.

[Pablo]

I think Tyreek10 and Kelce87 will have a bomb ass time catching bullets from Mahomes15 for the rest of their careers.

[penbrook]

Originally Posted by Pablo

I think Tyreek10 and Kelce87 will have a bomb ass time catching bullets from Mahomes15 for the rest of their careers.

Kelce has his best seasons under Smith because all Smith throws to is tight ends and rbs. Hill will be good with Mahomes

[cooper barrett]

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

Hopefully Alex gets Trent Greened 1999 style this week and we can start the Mahomes era.

We did give a 1st round pick to St L for Green. 12th actually

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by penbrook

Kelce has his best seasons under Smith because all Smith throws to is tight ends and rbs. Hill will be good with Mahomes

Good ****ing grief, kid

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

44 Pending Free Agents to begin the 2018 season? Huh?

Hali - $7 million
Bailey - $6 million
Jah Reid - $3.2 million
DJ - $7 million
West - $1.75 million

West and Reid mightonly important be cut this year, although I hope they keep West.

Hali, Reid and DJ gives them about $11 million in cap space. Bailey would add another $6 million. I hope that Bailey has a great year and lives up to his contract but the fact remains that the Chiefs have taken DE's in the second round the past two seasons.

They're not going to need much space to sign their draft picks, so cutting Hali and DJ would give them more than ample space.

The smart move is to hang onto Smith, especially if he has a great season, in order to get something in return.

Some people think it costs 10's of millions to sign a draft class and all that Dane... Don't waste your breath. I've showed the math on it almost annually and it never sinks in around here. Probably have a $2 million net cap effect... I'll look at it when we know the draft slots.

That and the Chiefs don't have 44 out of 53 roster spots kicking rocks next season. These are mostly camp bodies that are gone this year anyhow.

The ones that will probably stand a good chance at making the roster are:

R. Nunez-Roches - RFA
R. Wilson - RFA
J. March-Lillard - RFA
T. Mitchell - UFA
A. Sherman - UFA
C. Santos - UFA
D. Colquitt - UFA
J. Jenkins - UFA
B. Logan - UFA
T. Bray - UFA
P. Gaines - UFA
D. Thomas - UFA
K. Pierre-Lewis - UFA
Z. Fulton - UFA
A. Wilson - UFA

That's 15. Of that group, basically you have RNR and Wilson probably getting the 1.8 million ROFR tenders. Mitchell and Santos I can see being signed. Maybe Colquitt. I have my doubts on the rest, less Logan who is a wildcard. Alot of bottom of the barrel type guys here that you just aren't going to spend much capital on. Probably will replace most with vet minimum types. The $25 million you've outlined is probably going to be plenty to cover their current projection of $4.4 over and these signings.

[Pablo]

Originally Posted by penbrook

Kelce has his best seasons under Smith because all Smith throws to is tight ends and rbs. Hill will be good with Mahomes

Hey get back to me in five years on this if you would.

[penbrook]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Good ****ing grief, kid

At least we know Smith can take a snap under center. What about Mahomes?

[penbrook]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Some people think it costs 10's of millions to sign a draft class and all that Dane... Don't waste your breath. I've showed the math on it almost annually and it never sinks in around here. Probably have a $2 million net cap effect... I'll look at it when we know the draft slots.

That and the Chiefs don't have 44 out of 53 roster spots kicking rocks next season. These are mostly camp bodies that are gone this year anyhow.

The ones that will probably stand a good chance at making the roster are:

R. Nunez-Roches - RFA
R. Wilson - RFA
J. March-Lillard - RFA
T. Mitchell - UFA
A. Sherman - UFA
C. Santos - UFA
D. Colquitt - UFA
J. Jenkins - UFA
B. Logan - UFA
T. Bray - UFA
P. Gaines - UFA
D. Thomas - UFA
K. Pierre-Lewis - UFA
Z. Fulton - UFA
A. Wilson - UFA

That's 15. Of that group, basically you have RNR and Wilson probably getting the 1.8 million ROFR tenders. Mitchell and Santos I can see being signed. Maybe Colquitt. I have my doubts on the rest, less Logan who is a wildcard. Alot of bottom of the barrel type guys here that you just aren't going to spend much capital on. Probably will replace most with vet minimum types. The $25 million you've outlined is probably going to be plenty to cover their current projection of $4.4 over and these signings.

We gotta start thinking about giving Peters a extension

[Pablo]

Originally Posted by penbrook

At least we know Smith can take a snap under center. What about Mahomes?

I'm glad he's mastered that going into year 13. Impressive.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by penbrook

We gotta start thinking about giving Peters a extension

Agree. It shouldn't have a gross effect on 2018 cap though, usually just prorated signing bonus which I'd guess will be in the 3-3.5 million range based on current CB contracts

[cooper barrett]

Originally Posted by penbrook

Kelce has his best seasons under Smith because all Smith throws to is tight ends and rbs. Hill will be good with Mahomes

One could only hope that Alex11 is going to start using all the weapons instead of having WRs just run for a living. He has to learn utilize all the weapons on the field to win the tight ones. If he doesn't then let him become a $17M bench warmer. Hopefully Mahomes instills the confidence in him to do so and the training Mahomes receives makes him ready to take over as needed.

[kccrow]

Here's the top guys by Cap Savings (shown as cap savings/dead money) in 2018.

I highlight the guys I think are top cut candidates.

A. Smith - 17.00/3.60
D. Ford - 8.72/0
D. Johnson - 8.00/2.25
J. Houston - 7.90/12.70
T. Hali - 7.00/1.58
A. Bailey - 6.00/2.00
R. Parker - 5.00/2.00
E. Fisher - 4.58/9.37
M. Schwartz - 3.50/4.20
J. Reid - -3.20/0.78
D. Harris - 2.00/0.20
D. Sorensen - 1.80/3.00
S. Ware - 1.75/0.33
C. West - 1.75/0.33
F. Zombo - 1.11/0.17
M. Morse - 1.07/0.41

[penbrook]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Here's the top guys by Cap Savings (shown as cap savings/dead money) in 2018.

I highlight the guys I think are top cut candidates.

A. Smith - 17.00/3.60
D. Ford - 8.72/0
D. Johnson - 8.00/2.25
J. Houston - 7.90/12.70
T. Hali - 7.00/1.58
A. Bailey - 6.00/2.00
R. Parker - 5.00/2.00
E. Fisher - 4.58/9.37
M. Schwartz - 3.50/4.20
J. Reid - -3.20/0.78
D. Harris - 2.00/0.20
D. Sorensen - 1.80/3.00
S. Ware - 1.75/0.33
C. West - 1.75/0.33
F. Zombo - 1.11/0.17
M. Morse - 1.07/0.41

The only one you highlighted where I see no chnace of cutting is Parker. Dude is a top 5 FS. Other than that if DJ is like old DJ he will stay but if he's a liability he's gone. Bailey will have to prove it this year. And Smitty needs to win the AFCCG if he doesn't want to get cut

[penbrook]

Curious question. With all the kneeling going on during the national anthem has anyone noticed any Chiefs players taking a knee. I have yet to see one.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by penbrook

Curious question. With all the kneeling going on during the national anthem has anyone noticed any Chiefs players taking a knee. I have yet to see one.

No, but there was this from last year.