2019 Draft Ranking for Positions

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Depends on whether or not they're actually the BPA.

If the 6th best DE is ranked 32nd on the big board and the #1 center is ranked 40th, I take the 6th best DE.

Again, Garrett Bradbury isn't a consensus first round pick. So if you're taking him, you better be damn sure you're not passing up better talent just because he's the best player available at that position. This team has needs all over the field on both sides of the ball.

Mostly true.

But its worth pointing out that Bradbury IS the consensus top of his position. In a vacuum that's not a huge consideration but it is when discussing opportunity cost, especially in a draft where you have 2 second rounders.

If you can have the 30th ranked player on your draft board who's the top of the C position with a clear drop off after or the 25th ranked player on your draft board who's mashed in the middle of a group of 6 similarly situated corners, it's a worthwhile gamble to see who's gonna end up coming back around to you in the 2nd.

It isn't just 'take the guy at the top'. It's also a question of setting yourself up for the rest of the draft to avoid being duplicative or boxing yourself in. When the strength of the CB class is its depth with no real standout, if most of that depth is still sitting there when you pick, you're probably better served letting the depth do some heavy lifting for you, taking the top off a different position and getting a 1a, b, c, d or whatever at the deeper position in the 2nd.

Basic positional scarcity as applied to the NFL draft. Your best bet is to be in the back of a run on similarly situated players, IMO. I hate being the guy that kicks a run like that off because you've done nothing with your additional draft capital and you're no more likely than anyone after you of getting a stud from it.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Mostly true.

But its worth pointing out that Bradbury IS the consensus top of his position. In a vacuum that's not a huge consideration but it is when discussing opportunity cost, especially in a draft where you have 2 second rounders.

If you can have the 30th ranked player on your draft board who's the top of the C position with a clear drop off after or the 25th ranked player on your draft board who's mashed in the middle of a group of 6 similarly situated corners, it's a worthwhile gamble to see who's gonna end up coming back around to you in the 2nd.

It isn't just 'take the guy at the top'. It's also a question of setting yourself up for the rest of the draft to avoid being duplicative or boxing yourself in. When the strength of the CB class is its depth with no real standout, if most of that depth is still sitting there when you pick, you're probably better served letting the depth do some heavy lifting for you, taking the top off a different position and getting a 1a, b, c, d or whatever at the deeper position in the 2nd.

Basic positional scarcity as applied to the NFL draft. Your best bet is to be in the back of a run on similarly situated players, IMO. I hate being the guy that kicks a run like that off because you've done nothing with your additional draft capital and you're no more likely than anyone after you of getting a stud from it.

But wouldn't you rather have the guy you have actually rated as the top of said supposed run of say, corners? Unless you have them all rated that similarly and if you do that, aren't you doing something wrong?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

But wouldn't you rather have the guy you have actually rated as the top of said supposed run of say, corners? Unless you have them all rated that similarly and if you do that, aren't you doing something wrong?

If I only had 1 pick, sure.

But if I have 2 picks, one of which I can then allocate elsewhere to a position with a starker drop-off and no similar depth, I'll use that pick on the more extreme tier and be comfortable that I can still get something awfully close to my preference with the other pick.

Because one thing you're forgetting is that deep tiers yield erratic rankings. My top of that tier may be the bottom for most other teams (and an irrelevant consideration for still others).

And that's how a Chris Jones happens.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

If I only had 1 pick, sure.

But if I have 2 picks, one of which I can then allocate elsewhere to a position with a starker drop-off and no similar depth, I'll use that pick on the more extreme tier and be comfortable that I can still get something awfully close to my preference with the other pick.

Because one thing you're forgetting is that deep tiers yield erratic rankings. My top of that tier may be the bottom for most other teams (and an irrelevant consideration for still others).

And that's how a Chris Jones happens.

So you're talking about the 2 2nd rounders? ok, i'm on board now.

What youre saying is if there are say 3 CB's you love and you're up at 61, take another position you love because you know one will be there at 63.

Ok, I got it. I'm not dumb.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

So you're talking about the 2 2nd rounders? ok, i'm on board now.

What youre saying is if there are say 3 CB's you love and you're up at 61, take another position you love because you know one will be there at 63.

Ok, I got it. I'm not dumb.

Nope, I'm gambling more heavily than that.

I'm saying that if I'm at 29 and there are 6 guys that I think are all within the ballpark, I don't want to take 1a at 29 only to see 1e go off the board at 59. I've gotten so little heavy lifting out of my additional 30 spots of draft capital and I've done no...is 'arbitrage' the right word here? I think it is.

I'm gonna gamble. I'm gonna take the risk that there are enough fungible assets between 29 and 61 that while 1e may not be quite as good as 1a, there's a chance he'll still be there due to board irregularities and even if he isn't, the difference in value from 1e to 1a is less than the difference in value between the guy I took at 29 and his 'replacement' further down.

[BryanBusby]

Bradbury is the top Center, but hell Jenkins and McCoy are right there with him.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

Bradbury is the top Center, but hell Jenkins and McCoy are right there with him.

I thought that at first blush but I think Bradbury has a level of athleticism that the other two don't have. And it comes out in his raw strength.

His feet absolutely blow McCoy out of the water and is a little better than Jenkins. And to combine that with exceptional raw strength - I think y'all are really underselling him. That's a combination of crazy strong and incredibly athletic that you just don't see very often.

He may not be seen as a consensus 1st rounder right now but I think A) there's a better than 50/50 chance he's not there for us when we pick and B) a better than 50/50 chance that we take him if he is.

I do think there's a much bigger gap between Bradbury and McCoy/Jenkins than you're suggesting. Hell, you can throw McGovern in that group and not see a noticeable dropoff, IMO. Michael Jordan may have a higher ceiling than all 3 of them. But Bradbury has the highest ceiling of all of them AND the highest floor. He's unquestionably the top of the IOL class, IMO. And as I looked into it more and more, I decided it probably isn't even very close.

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I thought that at first blush but I think Bradbury has a level of athleticism that the other two don't have. And it comes out in his raw strength.

His feet absolutely blow McCoy out of the water and is a little better than Jenkins. And to combine that with exceptional raw strength - I think y'all are really underselling him. That's a combination of crazy strong and incredibly athletic that you just don't see very often.

He may not be seen as a consensus 1st rounder right now but I think A) there's a better than 50/50 chance he's not there for us when we pick and B) a better than 50/50 chance that we take him if he is.

I do think there's a much bigger gap between Bradbury and McCoy/Jenkins than you're suggesting. Hell, you can throw McGovern in that group of 3 and not see a noticable dropoff, IMO. Michael Jordan may have a higher ceiling than all 3 of them. But Bradbury has the highest ceiling of all of them AND the highest floor. He's unquestionably the top of the IOL class, IMO. And as I looked into it more and more, I decided it probably isn't even very close.

It was more of a general statement that you can take either of those guys, plug them in and you have a 10 year starter.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

It was more of a general statement that you can take either of those guys, plug them in and you have a 10 year starter.

I think you can, but more of a Casey Weigman type of 10 year starter. Solid but not amazing.

I mean maybe a Billy Price type? Pat Elflein if you're unlucky. But if you're looking to get a Travis Frederick or, I dunno, Alex Mack? You're looking at Bradbury. His ceiling is well beyond theirs and I think his bust potential is nothing near theirs.

Argue that the Cowboys haven't won shit with a C who's arguably destined for the HoF if you'd like - it's not a completely unfair argument to make. But I think Bradbury has the ability to be something similar and I don't think there's much of an argument to make that Frederick isn't the best C in football. He has been for pretty much his entire NFL career. That's the blueprint for this pick. The potential is there for it to work out that well.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I think you can, but more of a Casey Weigman type of 10 year starter. Solid but not amazing.

I mean maybe a Billy Price type? Pat Elflein if you're unlucky. But if you're looking to get a Travis Frederick or, I dunno, Alex Mack? You're looking at Bradbury. His ceiling is well beyond theirs and I think his bust potential is nothing near theirs.

Argue that the Cowboys haven't won shit with a C who's arguably destined for the HoF if you'd like - it's not a completely unfair argument to make. But I think Bradbury has the ability to be something similar and I don't think there's much of an argument to make that Frederick isn't the best C in football. He has been for pretty much his entire NFL career. That's the blueprint for this pick. The potential is there for it to work out that well.

That was who I was kind of envisioning if that's the route they go. Really, Frederick isn't the reason they haven't won (I'd say taking a Rb at #4 overall would be a bigger reason but that's another argument) anything and he's a phenomenal talent. Sometimes we look at other teams and justify not taking x or y because they have the best and they haven't won.

It's hard as shit to win. Just give me as many blue chippers as you can. If I can come out of 29 with an all pro C, fine. I'll grit my teeth and do it.

I said it the other day but that would be a pick we'd all kind of bemoan and wine about but in 3 years when he's (ideally) the best C in the game, you'd love it.

It's not the route I hope they go, but if they did, I get it.

[chiefforlife]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I thought that at first blush but I think Bradbury has a level of athleticism that the other two don't have. And it comes out in his raw strength.

His feet absolutely blow McCoy out of the water and is a little better than Jenkins. And to combine that with exceptional raw strength - I think y'all are really underselling him. That's a combination of crazy strong and incredibly athletic that you just don't see very often.

He may not be seen as a consensus 1st rounder right now but I think A) there's a better than 50/50 chance he's not there for us when we pick and B) a better than 50/50 chance that we take him if he is.

I do think there's a much bigger gap between Bradbury and McCoy/Jenkins than you're suggesting. Hell, you can throw McGovern in that group of 3 and not see a noticable dropoff, IMO. Michael Jordan may have a higher ceiling than all 3 of them. But Bradbury has the highest ceiling of all of them AND the highest floor. He's unquestionably the top of the IOL class, IMO. And as I looked into it more and more, I decided it probably isn't even very close.

SOLD!!