AV calcs are out: is Mitchell Schwartz best FA signing in NFL history?

[Prison Bitch]

ProFootballReference.com has an “AV” value assigned to every player in history. Scale 0-26, with the highest ever being Ladanian Tomlinson 2006. It was matched this year. The top 10:

Approximate Value
1. Lamar Jackson • BAL 26
2. Stephon Gilmore • NWE 21
Marcus Peters • 2TM 21
4. Minkah Fitzpatrick • 2TM 20
5. Ronnie Stanley • BAL 19
Tre'Davious White • BUF 19
7. Cameron Heyward • PIT 18
Michael Thomas • NOR 18
9. Dont'a Hightower • NWE 17
Patrick Mahomes • KAN 17
Ryan Ramczyk • NOR 17
10 (tie) Mitchell Schwartz * KAN 16

Yes our old friend Peters is 2 (tie). Sir Patrick led the league last year at 22. And if he played 16 games he’d be AV 19. But let’s talk Schwartz.



Mitch The Bitch signed a 5/$33m FA contract after four years with the Cleveland Clowns. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-c...cash-earnings/


His AV by year, Chiefs in bold:
7
5
6
6
10
14
20!
16


Last year he was the #2 most valuable player in AV behind Sir Pat. I don’t know how to evaluate OL but if this is close to accurate he’s the best FA signing ever and an unsung hero of the offense and keeping Sir Pat healthy.

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Cam’s 2015 was worth 20 AV.

This metric sucks

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

This metric sucks

I doubt they care what you think.

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

I doubt they care what you think.

Doesn't matter if they do because I'm talking to you, not them.

You could have easily posted a thread about Schwartz being a great FA signing without trying to prop it up with this shitty metric. Do better, Bitch.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

I doubt they care what you think.

It isn't very good.

It had a tendency to conflate quantity w/ quality. If you take a bunch of snaps, approximate value will love you for it. It's usually most obvious w/ DBs and OL.

Austin Reiter is a pretty good example. His AV last year was 3; this year it was 8. Reiter, in his time on the field, was a better player last year than he was this year and by quite a bit. But last year he played far fewer snaps.

So in terms of contributions to the team, it's fair to say he provided 'more' to the Chiefs this season just because he took so many more snaps. But in a vacuum, you'd look at his 8 this year vs. his 3 last year and think "man, he must have been twice as good" and that's just not accurate. I don't feel like digging, but in the past I've noticed it being even more jarring for CBs. For instance, Scandrick being 'worth' 2 AV last year and Ward being worth 1 - strictly a function of Scandrick getting more snaps and in no way representative of the quality of those snaps.

Long way of saying that it isn't a very good metric at all for determining quality of performance. Sometimes guys play a lot because they have to and it's a really bad way of comparing guys across teams because of that. You can play a lot for a shitty team and earn yourself a pretty high AV but if you play in a limited role on a better team and are a better player than said guy on the shitty team, it won't be reflected in AV.

It has some utility, but it's pretty limited.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

Doesn't matter if they do because I'm talking to you, not them.

You could have easily posted a thread about Schwartz being a great FA signing without trying to prop it up with this shitty metric. Do better, Bitch.

I don’t care to “prop up” anyone. That’s not really my bag. I only analyze players based on cold hard data. If you want the cheerleading section, I’m afraid I’ll have to point you elsewhere.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

I don’t care to “prop up” anyone. That’s not really my bag. I only analyze players based on cold hard data. If you want the cheerleading section, I’m afraid I’ll have to point you elsewhere.

His point is that there is FAR better data to use.

AV is more akin to a usage rate than it is a barometer for quality of play.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

It isn't very good.

I’m always open to analytics. Show me more.

It had a tendency to conflate quantity w/ quality. If you take a bunch of snaps, approximate value will love you for it. It's usually most obvious w/ DBs and OL.

I’m not wedded to it. But I don’t know if any other metric. And if you browse thru team page history, the numbers definitely pass the smell test.

Austin Reiter is a pretty good example. His AV last year was 3; this year it was 8. Reiter, in his time on the field, was a better player last year than he was this year and by quite a bit. But last year he played far fewer snaps.

So in terms of contributions to the team, it's fair to say he provided 'more' to the Chiefs this season just because he took so many more snaps. But in a vacuum, you'd look at his 8 this year vs. his 3 last year and think "man, he must have been twice as good" and that's just not accurate. I don't feel like digging, but in the past I've noticed it being even more jarring for CBs. For instance, Scandrick being 'worth' 2 AV last year and Ward being worth 1 - strictly a function of Scandrick getting more snaps and in no way representative of the quality of those snaps.

Long way of saying that it isn't a very good metric at all for determining quality of performance. Sometimes guys play a lot because they have to and it's a really bad way of comparing guys across teams because of that. You can play a lot for a shitty team and earn yourself a pretty high AV but if you play in a limited role on a better team and are a better player than said guy on the shitty team, it won't be reflected in AV.

It has some utility, but it's pretty limited.

But that’s how all analytics work - the more PT you get the more value you carry, regardless of whether or not you’re “better” than the backup. It’s assuemd thru 100+ years of sports history that the coaches know better than anyone who’s better and backups in all sports universally get exposed the longer they play

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

But that’s how all analytics work - the more PT you get the more value you carry, regardless of whether or not you’re “better” than the backup. It’s assuemd thru 100+ years of sports history that the coaches know better than anyone who’s better and backups in all sports universally get exposed the longer they play

Not always. DVOA, for instance, oftentimes penalizes a guy for doing his job poorly, even over large numbers. You're a fan of WAR - WAR isn't a strictly positive metric like a counting stat. You can't get a negative RBI; you can get a negative win share.

I think AV is essentially a REALLY rudimentary WAR in that it only ratchets one direction (in practical application anyway). For instance, it's damn near impossible to put up a -AV because AV starts from pure zero rather than average. So unless you get 50 snaps all season and get blasted in tangible ways (missed tackles, fumbles, drops, ints, etc...) you won't yield a negative AV. You can go out there, rack up snaps, get beat constantly but not tangibly and still put up a solid AV. With stuff like VORP or DVOA, that doesn't happen. To get a negative VORP, you can play poorly. To get a negative AV, you have to be so bad that your team would effectively be better playing 11 on 10 vs. having you on the field.

AV just isn't very advanced at all. It's not completely useless, but there are far better places to look.

[JohnnyHammersticks]

Underrated, underappreciated. Just goes out and quietly does his job every week and does it very well. Not too many teams with a tackle combination as good as the Chiefs have with him and Fisher.

[Chris Meck]

yeah, I like Schwartz.

He's no Willie Roaf.

Willie Roaf was a free agent.

end of thread.

[Mosbonian]

You can tell how young this crowd is....one of the best tackles for the Chiefs was John Alt.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by Mosbonian

You can tell how young this crowd is....one of the best tackles for the Chiefs was John Alt.

Alt was drafted by KC. This thread is about FA's.

[Jamie]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

Willie Roaf was a free agent.

Nope, aquired in a trade. For a 3rd rounder if I recall correctly.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by Jamie

Nope, aquired in a trade. For a 3rd rounder if I recall correctly.

is that so?

you may be right. I stand corrected.

[Prison Bitch]

Roaf AV for us:

14
13
17
8 (in only 10 games, so 13 full season)



His 17 in 2004 made him the 8th best player in NFL.