***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[JohnnyHammersticks]

"Man with coronavirus seeking woman with Lyme disease"

[Carlota69]

A Northern California woman who tested positive for COVID-19 is in serious condition and has been intubated.

Rep. John Garamendi (D-Calif.), who represents the district where the woman is from, told CNN the patient is potentially unable to talk, hampering efforts to determine where she might have encountered the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has dispatched 10 officials to track down anyone who may have come in contact with the Solano County woman, whose source of infection remains a mystery. Health officials believe she could be the first case of community spread of the virus in the United States.


https://www.huffpost.com/entry/calif...b6beedb4ea48ae

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Yeah, I didn't mean that literally. I only meant to illustrate that the difference between the stated death rates and reality is likely quite large.

Somewhere around 0.1% seems about in line with what I would expect, which is in line with death rates from the flu.

Ok. Fair enough.

But it is hard to talk about low probability but high consequence events without generating hysteria and then a backlash to the hysteria.

Coronavirus is new to humans. Nobody has any previous immunity. So the number of people who could contract it is way higher than the seasonal flu.

It is unlikely but still plausible that half the world’s population could contract it over the next year. Even a 0.1% fatality rate would be 4 million people.

That on top of the panic it would cause would be really serious.

Worst case scenarios should be calmly considered and contingency plans made as appropriate.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan

Ok. Fair enough.

But it is hard to talk about low probability but high consequence events without generating hysteria and then a backlash to the hysteria.

Coronavirus is new to humans. Nobody has any previous immunity. So the number of people who could contract it is way higher than the seasonal flu.

It is unlikely but still plausible that half the world’s population could contract it over the next year. Even a 0.1% fatality rate would be 4 million people.

That on top of the panic it would cause would be really serious.

Worst case scenarios should be calmly considered and contingency plans made as appropriate.

But that's the whole issue - it's a low probability event that is getting a HUGE amount of media attention and is now bordering on causing mass hysteria. There's a chance we'll get hit by a massive asteroid in the next year and all of humanity will be wiped out. Don't think I'll change my vacation plans just yet, though.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by DaFace

But that's the whole issue - it's a low probability event that is getting a HUGE amount of media attention and is now bordering on causing mass hysteria. There's a chance we'll get hit by a massive asteroid in the next year and all of humanity will be wiped out. Don't think I'll change my vacation plans just yet, though.

Same probability?

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

Same probability?

In the next year? Sure. I'd definitely wager that it's about as likely that we get hit by an asteroid in the next year as it is that half the world's population would be infected by Coronavirus. I mean, it's been active in China for two months now, and it's now up to a whopping 0.006% of their population.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by DaFace

In the next year? Sure. I'd definitely wager that it's about as likely that we get hit by an asteroid in the next year as it is that half the world's population would be infected by Coronavirus. I mean, it's been active in China for two months now, and it's now up to a whopping 0.006% of their population.

Where are you getting “half the world’s population”? I guess I haven’t been following.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

Where are you getting “half the world’s population”? I guess I haven’t been following.

The post I was responding to.

[TLO]

Wuhan has 11 million people living there.

11 million.

I wonder what the actual tally was of those infected? The sad part is we'll never know.

[TLO]

Was the hype this bad with swine flu, SARS, etc?

[TLO]

Also - why is this story getting no attention? Seems pretty significant unless I'm missing something.

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israe...avirus-vaccine

[Chiefs4TheWin]

Originally Posted by TLO

Also - why is this story getting no attention? Seems pretty significant unless I'm missing something.

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israe...avirus-vaccine

Because that's good news. Good news doesn't sell as well.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by TLO

Also - why is this story getting no attention? Seems pretty significant unless I'm missing something.

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israe...avirus-vaccine

As I understand it, the issue isn't developing the vaccine (though I don't mean to imply that that's negligible). It's all the stuff that has to happen after that. It has to go through the trial phase to make sure it doesn't cause more harm than good, then they have to mass produce it and distribute it.

Most of the estimates I've seen have suggested early 2021 is a reasonable timeline for mass availability.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by TLO

Was the hype this bad with swine flu, SARS, etc?

There was plenty of hype, sure.

Swine flu had a low fatality rate.

SARS and MERS had a much higher fatality rate but they weren’t very infectious. So the world succeeded in isolating enough patients for the disease to fade out without going pandemic.

Corona virus looks infectious enough that it will most likely go pandemic.

The quarantines can slow it down but they won’t stamp it out. The real questions are probably:

How long before it is in general circulation like the current flu strains?

What is the fatality rate for the general population?

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by DaFace

In the next year? Sure. I'd definitely wager that it's about as likely that we get hit by an asteroid in the next year as it is that half the world's population would be infected by Coronavirus. I mean, it's been active in China for two months now, and it's now up to a whopping 0.006% of their population.

Most of the virus experts think that China has only reported a fraction actual cases. Which is good and bad news. Bad because it means it is more easily spread. Good that the actual death rate is much lower.

China has also taken draconian quarantine measures that are not going to be replicated everywhere. Now that there are hundreds of cases in Iran, and they are not taking serious measures, we will likely learn a lot fairly shortly.

I’m not in the sky is falling camp. But this is much more serious than the chance of a large asteroid strike. I would say it is more like the risk of Miami getting a direct hit from a hurricane this year or LA having the Big earthquake.