***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[TLO]

Was just listening to the daily WHO briefing.

They mentioned that containment IS working. This virus is unique in the fact that it isn't like influenza, as if this was the case - we'd have seen many more cases by now. Top priority for all countries right now needs to be containment.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by DaFace

All of that still leaves out what is likely to be a large number of people who are infected but otherwise just treat it as a cold or who don't show any symptoms. Obviously the death rates are concerning, but you can't really compare it to similar numbers from the flu until people actually have time to study it in detail.

I haven't seen any estimates from experts that think the true death rate is above 1%.

Assuming heath care services aren't over run like they were for a while in China and I assume currently are in Iran. If people can't get treatment, the death rate and transmission rate could climb.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by TLO

Was just listening to the daily WHO briefing.

They mentioned that containment IS working. This virus is unique in the fact that it isn't like influenza, as if this was the case - we'd have seen many more cases by now. Top priority for all countries right now needs to be containment.

Yeah I'd really like to find out which factors help in transmission. So far we know 4 places where transmission and severe infection/death rates are high - China, Iran, N. Italy and the cruise ship.

Cruise ship is obvious - age and close proximity.

China had the disadvantage of not knowing what it was for a month or more. Also people live/work/commute in close quarters and at least the men tend to be heavy smokers I believe. China has one advantage in that they can put 50 million people on lockdown. Imagine if the US tried that.

Iran - I know very little about daily life in Iran. Do they smoke a lot? Do they eat with their hands regularly? Is there a lot of hugging and touching and sharing of things like hooka pipes or something? I'm assuming general food cleanliness is not up to Western/Japanese/etc standards, same goes for medical care.

Northern Italy - also probably a lot of smokers. Temps are cold, which helps other coronaviruses live on surfaces longer (unknown yet how well COVID lives on surfaces). Assuming decent food hygiene and top-notch medical care. Italians do like to kiss each other on the face as a greeting and are very touchy-feely.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Iran - I know very little about daily life in Iran. Do they smoke a lot? Do they eat with their hands regularly? Is there a lot of hugging and touching and sharing of things like hooka pipes or something? I'm assuming general food cleanliness is not up to Western/Japanese/etc standards, same goes for medical care.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by TLO

We're about 3 months into the outbreak, (worldwide) and we're at under 100 confirmed cases in the US. (A lot of those cases were people we brought home from hot spot areas) Will the number of cases go up? Almost certainly. But can we limit the cases to communities in which they appear?

I'm trying to be optimistic.. The alternative is too bleak.

I really doubt containment is going to stamp it out. But it can certainly slow things down.

The optimistic scenario is that it spread in the US is slow enough and also that the virus mostly disappears with warmer summer weather.

It would probably return next fall but there might be better treatments by then. And if people who get the disease can be spread out in time than hospitals won’t be overwhelmed.

[suzzer99]

While the city of Qom is the epicentre of #CoronaVirus in Iran, authorities refuse to close down religious shrines there.

These pro-regime people are licking the shrines & encouraging people to visit them.

Iran's authorities are endangering lives of Iranians & the world pic.twitter.com/s9o6zYhzNQ

— Masih Alinejad ��️ (@AlinejadMasih) February 29, 2020

Well the Iranian govt and their supporters seem to be behaving particularly stupidly over this.

Edit: ponied by donger.

[Donger]

Four Americans who were being monitored in the National Quarantine Unit at the UNMC/Nebraska Medical Center in Omaha were released from the quarantine unit, according to a release from the institution.

Two of the people previously tested positive for coronavirus, while two others tested negative throughout the quarantine process, the release said.

The two people who previously tested positive for the disease were released from quarantine yesterday afternoon, having tested negative for the virus in three separate tests, 24 hours apart, according to UNMC health officials. The two people who tested negative left the quarantine unit this morning.

These four Americans met all UNMC/Nebraska Medicine qualifications for release, which exceeded CDC qualifications.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

Why in the world was this decision made?

This is America, dammit!

[ChiliConCarnage]

3 more deaths reported in the Seattle area. 5 deaths out of 14 identified cases in King County. They didn't identify two as cases until after their passing. I wonder if this is that nursing home

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage

3 more deaths reported in the Seattle area. 5 deaths out of 14 identified cases in King County. They didn't identify two as cases until after their passing. I wonder if this is that nursing home

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan

I really doubt containment is going to stamp it out. But it can certainly slow things down.

The optimistic scenario is that it spread in the US is slow enough and also that the virus mostly disappears with warmer summer weather.

It would probably return next fall but there might be better treatments by then. And if people who get the disease can be spread out in time than hospitals won’t be overwhelmed.

There have been several countries that have only had a minimal number of cases that have stamped it out with containment. That's obviously not going to work for everyone though.

[Bwana]

Originally Posted by Donger

Wow, well that explains a lot.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage

3 more deaths reported in the Seattle area. 5 deaths out of 14 identified cases in King County. They didn't identify two as cases until after their passing. I wonder if this is that nursing home

I would imagine so.. When you talk about containment, making sure it DOESN'T hit these types of places is going to be key in the grand scheme of things.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by TLO

I would imagine so.. When you talk about containment, making sure it DOESN'T hit these types of places is going to be key in the grand scheme of things.

How the **** did it hit that place to start with?

[Rain Man]

Let's hope the Taliban and al-quaeda and ISIL folks all follow the licking ritual, too.