***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by BIG_DADDY

So what is the CDC paying our favorite football BB self-proclaimed scientist to post on the subject today?

You a conspiracy nutter now? Makes sense, I suppose.

[Fish]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

You a conspiracy nutter now? Makes sense, I suppose.

BIG_DUMMY likes to follow me around these days and call me names because he thinks I had him banned from the Science is Cool thread. It was his own typical anti-vaxx nonsense of course, and I had nothing to do with it. Regardless, he's been butthurt ever since...

[suzzer99]

https://www.businessinsider.com/new-...r-cough-2020-3

When a 35-year-old man went to a New York City hospital with a fever, a cough, and aches, emergency-room staffers put him in isolation and suited up in gowns, gloves, and goggles. He'd recently returned from a business trip to Japan, where at least 230 people have tested positive for the new coronavirus.

Doctors at the NYU Langone Health—Cobble Hill emergency department in Brooklyn suspected he might have COVID-19, the illness caused by the new virus. Tests for 20 other viruses came back negative, including five strains of flu. But the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention denied the hospital's request to test for the novel coronavirus, the man told Business Insider, because his condition wasn't severe enough to hospitalize him.

Officials even told the hospital that the patient could resume life as normal, including taking the subway to his workplace in midtown Manhattan, he said.

"They kind of left me in this state which was kind of a choose-your-own-adventure," the man said. Business Insider confirmed his identity and reviewed paperwork from his hospital visit but is keeping the man anonymous for security reasons.

"If this turns into a pandemic or whatever this is, it shouldn't come down to individual decisions," he added.

The man said his doctor did not agree with the CDC's verdict and recommended ways the patient could quarantine himself at home. He's taking the advice, though he still doesn't know for sure whether he has COVID-19.

"In New York state, the [first] person who tested positive was only the 32nd test we've done in this state — that is a national scandal," Matthew McCarthy, a Manhattan physician and assistant professor of medicine at Cornell, told CNBC on Monday.

South Korea, by contrast, has implemented free coronavirus-testing drive-thrus and tested more than 109,000 people.

What in the hell? Why can S. Korea test so many and we've only got like 1500 tests for the whole country? Is it because China won't sell us the tests or something?

[TLO]

MSNBC is touting around a 3.4% mortality rate now. Which obviously isn't fully accurate, but meh.

[Fish]

[FD]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

What in the hell? Why can S. Korea test so many and we've only got like 1500 tests for the whole country? Is it because China won't sell us the tests or something?

They have completely bungled the tests issue. It should be a major scandal.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

https://www.businessinsider.com/new-...r-cough-2020-3







What in the hell? Why can S. Korea test so many and we've only got like 1500 tests for the whole country? Is it because China won't sell us the tests or something?

If you try to answer that you will get slammed for trying to politicize the outbreak.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by TLO

MSNBC is touting around a 3.4% mortality rate now. Which obviously isn't fully accurate, but meh.

I think the real mortality rate, assuming first-world care and enough beds, is probably something like S. Korea's .5% - considering how aggressively they're actually testing.

Real mortality rate isn't even that helpful though since so many people will have it and be asymptomatic. Mortality rate once you get sick is probably what people will want to know most - controlling for age and other conditions.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

I think the real mortality rate, assuming first-world care and enough beds, is probably something like S. Korea's .5% - considering how aggressively they're actually testing.

Real mortality rate isn't even that helpful though since so many people will have it and be asymptomatic. Mortality rate once you get sick is probably what people will want to know most - controlling for age and other conditions.

Seems like a good estimate. I think we're going to see an increase in testing in the US in the coming days and weeks. Which will inevitably lead to more cases and panic amongst the masses. I'm trying to keep things in prospective right now. I don't have the energy to endlessly worry about this anymore..

[suzzer99]

I'm not that worried about myself personally - but my 79-year old Dad is a concern, and I just found out my mom has hypertension - which I didn't know. The goal imo is to keep them safe until a vaccine comes out in a year and a half or whatever. It won't fully protect them, but it may lessen the severity if they get it (assuming it works like the flu vaccine).

[BWillie]

What is the mortality rate for a 35 year old compared to the regular flu?

What is the mortality rate for a 70 year old compared to the regular flu?

Is one exponentially higher for each?

[wazu]

Originally Posted by BWillie

What is the mortality rate for a 35 year old compared to the regular flu?

What is the mortality rate for a 70 year old compared to the regular flu?

Is one exponentially higher for each?

Rates are a subject of much debate, but yes this is far more deadly than normal flu.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by wazu

Rates are a subject of much debate, but yes this is far more deadly than normal flu.

I realize this but what I'm looking to find out is how much more deadly is it than the flu for young adults or middle aged adults? If it's only say 5x more deadly than the flu for adults, but 50x more dangerous than the flu for old people then we can plan accordingly and decide how much exposure we really care about.

[wazu]

Originally Posted by BWillie

I realize this but what I'm looking to find out is how much more deadly is it than the flu for young adults or middle aged adults? If it's only say 5x more deadly than the flu for adults, but 50x more dangerous than the flu for old people then we can plan accordingly and decide how much exposure we really care about.

Your 50X number is in the ballpark. Influenza is something like .1% death rate. COVID-19 is looking more like 3%-6.5%. It also seems to be exponentially worse for old people, so for younger people it would be much lower.

There's a possibility that death rate won't be that bad long term. It sounds like most of the dead in china are elderly men who smoked most of their lives. Smoking rates are lower in other countries. That said, so far we don't have any evidence in the U.S. that the death rate will be lower.

[Strongside]

Originally Posted by wazu

Your 50X number is in the ballpark. Influenza is something like .1% death rate. COVID-19 is looking more like 3%-6.5%. It also seems to be exponentially worse for old people, so for younger people it would be much lower.

There's a possibility that death rate won't be that bad long term. It sounds like most of the dead in china are elderly men who smoked most of their lives. Smoking rates are lower in other countries. That said, so far we don't have any evidence in the U.S. that the death rate will be lower.

The mortality rates are all over the place based on country. As someone said before, it's probably closer to the .5% rate seen in Korea as they're actually texting people en masse.