***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[carlos3652]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Is it overkill at this point if drastic measures were taken to the level of:

Suspend all air travel
All interstate travel is shut down
Require all non essential businesses to suspend business
Encourage everyone to stay at home
Ban all groupings of a certain amount of people

I can see this happening if it gets out of control in a specific state... as in no travel in or out to minimize the spread rate.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Is it overkill at this point if drastic measures were taken to the level of:

Suspend all air travel
All interstate travel is shut down

isnt that like closing the barn door after the horse has left the barn?

It’s everywhere now. We have no clue how bad it is or what areas have the largest concentration of infected people because there is no ****ing wide spread testing 4 weeks into this outbreak.

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by petegz28

The problem with testing is it's only good for that particular moment in time. I can test negative and 10 minutes later be exposed to someone who has the virus and there you have it.


We need to test but there is a lot of overrated expectations right now about what pre-emptive testing like what SK did really gets you.

Unless you lock everyone up and release them one by one as they test negative then large scale testing is going to be overrated.

Be mindful that a very small percentage of people with the virus are likely being tested and confirmed.

The people getting sick now were likely infected 1-2 weeks ago. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that we have 20 times as many cases as positive tests, because hardly anyone is being tested.

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

isnt that like closing the barn door after the horse has left the barn?

It’s everywhere now. We have no clue how bad it is or what areas have the largest concentration of infected people because there is no ****ing wide spread testing 4 weeks into this outbreak.

This is my thought as well. We have no idea who has contacted the virus at this point.

The next 2 weeks will tell us a lot. If we start to see a lot of sick people (admitted to the hospital level of sick) we will have our answer.

[zigbazah]

next 2-3 weeks will make or break. everything should be shut down as much as possible through then or it'll just get even worse.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by SupDock

Be mindful that a very small percentage of people with the virus are likely being tested and confirmed.

The people getting sick now were likely infected 1-2 weeks ago. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that we have 20 times as many cases as positive tests, because hardly anyone is being tested.

I wouldn't either. My point is a lot of people are calling for South Korean type testing which was largely pre-emptive testing. And to that point it's only worth that particular moment in which you are tested.

I have had some doctors tell me they know for a fact there are more cases than what has been reported and that is potentially a good thing. That means up until this point, if people had this they are thinking they have the flu and doing the things you do to get over the flu and we don't have large groups of people dropping dead. So potentially our mortality rate and recovery rate is better than we think.

You also run the risk of people who have died being chalked up to dying from something else but that's the down side of it.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by zigbazah

next 2-3 weeks will make or break. everything should be shut down as much as possible through then or it'll just get even worse.

That's an assumption. We have a level of hysteria going on right now that isn't productive. In the end we could very well end up telling people if you feel sick and are otherwise healthy and under the age of 75 then just stay home and take care of yourself like you would if you had the flu. Perhaps your doctor might prescribe an anti-viral but outside of being critical, there isn't a lot else you can do.

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

isnt that like closing the barn door after the horse has left the barn?

It’s everywhere now. We have no clue how bad it is or what areas have the largest concentration of infected people because there is no ****ing wide spread testing 4 weeks into this outbreak.

That’s what I’m saying.

Don’t wait for it to get worse.

Isolate this thing and suffocate it.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by SupDock

This is my thought as well. We have no idea who has contacted the virus at this point.

The next 2 weeks will tell us a lot. If we start to see a lot of sick people (admitted to the hospital level of sick) we will have our answer.

Personally I think we would have already started seeing that. Or perhaps we are but until now it was for what we thought was something else. Again, this is a very bad flu season so you have to wonder how many people are being told or think they have the flu and perhaps they have covid?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

isnt that like closing the barn door after the horse has left the barn?

It’s everywhere now. We have no clue how bad it is or what areas have the largest concentration of infected people because there is no ****ing wide spread testing 4 weeks into this outbreak.

Wide spread testing is overrated. All it takes is for 1 person who is infected to go into an area that largely tested negative to flip that scale. Testing for the sake of testing will produce a false sense of security to a degree.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by penguinz

You reduce population by killing off those who are able to reproduce. Not by killing off those who have lived their lives.

A better conspiracy is that it’s designed to reduce the American entitlements problem. Or maybe a more widespread social safety net problem in the West. Plan A is to make it look like this virus came from a wet market. Plan B is to release it in the city where China’s only top level bio lab is so they can try to pin it on the Chinese if plan A falls through. Meanwhile, an unstoppable plague blows though and cleans out the West’s post-producers (the old and unfit).

[carlos3652]

Originally Posted by patteeu

A better conspiracy is that it’s designed to reduce the American entitlements problem. Or maybe a more widespread social safety net problem in the West. Plan A is to make it look like this virus came from a wet market. Plan B is to release it in the city where China’s only top level bio lab is so they can try to pin it on the Chinese if plan A falls through. Meanwhile, an unstoppable plague blows though and cleans out the West’s post-producers (the old and unfit).

Seems reasonable too... It just amazing to me that the virus is literally doing specific / targeted damage vs say the H1N1 or MERS

[BigRedChief]

This is a damn good question

How did the Jazz get 58 coronavirus tests during a national shortage https://t.co/Sz3qsX84kB

— Lindsey Adler (@lindseyadler) March 12, 2020

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by patteeu

A better conspiracy is that it’s designed to reduce the American entitlements problem. Or maybe a more widespread social safety net problem in the West. Plan A is to make it look like this virus came from a wet market. Plan B is to release it in the city where China’s only top level bio lab is so they can try to pin it on the Chinese if plan A falls through. Meanwhile, an unstoppable plague blows though and cleans out the West’s post-producers (the old and unfit).

If I were to buy into a conspiracy theory it would be along these lines.

[carlos3652]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

This is a damn good question

How did the Jazz get 58 coronavirus tests during a national shortage https://t.co/Sz3qsX84kB

— Lindsey Adler (@lindseyadler) March 12, 2020

So are we now complaining that there is more testing being done?