***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Unless something dramatically shifts to the bad in the next week, and considering the social distancing it shouldn't, we aren't going to see anything near all the crazy predictions. We haven't seen the super fast climb in deaths or new cases predicted just 10 days ago.

The whole idea of "millions" of deaths is based off 50% of the people getting it and 3% of them dying. We have already dropped down to 1.5% death rate on cases we know exist so its obviously lower if 80% of people show very little sign of illness even if they contract it.

If 10% got it and 3% died it would be about 1,000,000.
Based on our population of 327,000,000.

[Frosty]

I'm sitting in my office right now listening to a friend of the guy I work with saying that C19 isn't the flu, it's only the common cold. "100s of thousands die of the common cold every year and only 41 have died of C19 in Washington".

I would be massively face palming right now but am trying to touch my face less.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by stumppy

If 10% got it and 3% died it would be about 1,000,000.
Based on our population of 327,000,000.

Ok then its at least 20% in that scenario since the word "millions" is not singular.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by TLO

I understand this argument - but then why are people saying we're right on track with where Italy was?

A few things:

1) I'm seeing that position far less often over the last few days.

2) A lot of the people that were saying it were using arbitrary endpoints to and shifting around D-0 to make their predictions. After being '5 days behind Italy!' 2 weeks ago to being 2 weeks behind and this morning I saw someone saw we're 3 weeks behind...there's been a LOT of fudging numbers to try to find trends.

3) Some of the most egregious things I've seen done are people using one metric (say contracted cases) to establish their D-0 then using that same D-0 to apply it to deaths or critical cases. It's hard to explain without showing the exact instances but ultimately that were using their same datapoints across multiple different scales. It's REAL bad science.

4) Some folks were just working backwards to set their endpoints. Which...yeah, don't do that.

So from what I can tell, the real problem is a constant shifting of "where the US is" in regards to the virus. When you don't see the same deaths as Italy, you don't say "well we've done X to reduce deaths" you say "oh, well we must just be at D+2" even though you said we were at D+2 four days ago. I've seen some pretty bad science/stats in some of this stuff. It's been awfully disappointing when you're trying to figure out what the hell is actually happening.

But no matter what you think, we're still dealing with a MASSIVE 'Small N' problem and in the end, even 2-3 days of significant changes could spike a trendline dramatically. As I said yesterday - everything could fall to hell tomorrow.

But everything hasn't fallen to hell yet today, so I guess we can mark that box off...

[ptlyon]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

Yeah. I figure at this point I'll just keep my resume updated and if it happens officially I'll just keep working on my next IT cert until I'm employed again.

Just gotta keep moving forward.

Pros and cons of being in IT:

Pro: You most likely can work remotely

Con: You most likely can work remotely

[FAX]

Originally Posted by TLO

There's been a lot of good news about Chloroquine out there. Idk how long these trials take, but maybe we can hurry things along a bit since this drug has been around for 50 years.

Apparently, COVID-19 has difficulty infiltrating the cell wall if the human being has zinc in the human's system. The theory is that Chloroquine facilitates zinc ion uptake in the body.

Of course, you could also use a Frunutta Zinc + C tablet and dissolve it under your tongue (not for swallowing). Many people swear that the combination boosts the immune system.

If not sold out, those are available online, I believe.

FAX

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by TLO

I understand this argument - but then why are people saying we're right on track with where Italy was?

I believe as of today that would be false but I am not certain. The number of deaths is not growing in proportion to the number of new cases and definitely not in line with Italy.

Italy currently has an 8% death rate based off 31,00 cases, I can't see that happening in the US which is at 1.6%. I wouldn't expect that number to balloon to 8%.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

That's you 'getting smart"? Lord, you suck at this.

So I say something as it relates to you that is completely accurate, your response is to say something regarding my position that...isn't.

And I'm the one crying about it? Ah....got it.

By the way, you almost made it through a post without wildly misrepresenting my position. I mean...you didn't, but you almost did. So that's progress.

Like I said - if you're going to try to speak directly to something I'm saying, at least read what I'm actually saying. Or don't weigh in. It's really not that hard.

That's fine if you think at suck at 'this' whatever 'this' is. You're entitled to your opinion.

Bottom line if a Governor feels the need to shut down businesses for the safety of the public they will do so whether you or I like it or not. Personally, I think what they are doing is great. It takes a lot of courage because a lot of people obviously aren't going to like it. It could save lives.

I believe we can all agree that if they didn't do this the virus would spread at a more rapid rate at the very least more than likely cost society more lives. So lets try to stay positive here and look at the overall picture.

You can bounce back losing a job or not partying for a couple weekends but if people die from this virus they can't come back from that.

[O.city]

I called my ER doc surgeon buddy that I play golf with here in town and told him if they need any real doctors at the hospital to give me a call.

But on a serious note I did volunteer to help at the hospital if it gets swamped. I'm just a dentist so I don't wanna be doing anything real medical, maybe changing linens or something.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

I called my ER doc surgeon buddy that I play golf with here in town and told him if they need any real doctors at the hospital to give me a call.

But on a serious note I did volunteer to help at the hospital if it gets swamped. I'm just a dentist so I don't wanna be doing anything real medical, maybe changing linens or something.

Way to go!

[BWillie]

The world is about to reach 200,000 Coronavirus cases.

Scary shit going on in Italy though. They are getting demolished. 2,941 total recovered, and 2,503 deaths. 26,062 active cases without a result yet. That is an insane death rate so far.

[Donger]

Wow, now 1,700 cases in NY.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by ptlyon

Pros and cons of being in IT:

Pro: You most likely can work remotely

Con: You most likely can work remotely

I’m currently “unemployed” but it’s different with me in I.T., I’ve been doing contract work for awhile. Great pay but it’s projects. This thing hit when I was looking for the next project. So technically I’m not willingly unemployed. I don’t live paycheck to paycheck so I’ll be fine as will most I.T. Engineers that have up to date skills. Once this is over, everyone is going to the cloud on steroids fast.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by TLO

I understand this argument - but then why are people saying we're right on track with where Italy was?

And to build on this just a little bit more.

I think there were some well meaning 'overestimates' at times as well.

If I'm looking to settle a case and I need $1,000 to do it, I'm not gonna come in asking for $1,000. I'm not gonna ask for $10,000 because I've overplayed my hand and blown everything out of the water.

But I'll ask for 2. I'll overstate the circumstances by a little to ensure that the situation is taken seriously. We all do it. It happens in football discussions all the time - remember the "ALEX SMITH IS MATT CASSEL 2.0!!!" days? Nobody really thought Alex Smith was Matt Cassel, but they said he was to demonstrate that he damn sure wasn't Patrick Mahomes. Sometimes that hand gets overplayed, sometimes it gets played just right.

But I think there were a lot of people who REALLY felt like this was being taken too lightly, and perhaps with good cause. So they, consciously or subconsciously, played to the more dire consequences side of the ledger to push the responses as much as they could.

Just a theory...

[Kiimo]

I have to think NY's numbers are high thanks to public transportation. The rare case where that works against you. Some friends have been worried about the subway for weeks and welp