***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by Donger

The report, issued Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, found that — as in other countries — the oldest patients had the greatest likelihood of dying and of being hospitalized. But of the 508 patients known to have been hospitalized, 38 percent were notably younger — between 20 and 54. And nearly half of the 121 patients who were admitted to intensive care units were adults under 65, the C.D.C. reported.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...cid=mm6912e2_w

Thanks.

I've been looking for data on this from a reasonable source.

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

I hope that argument is correct but if it is that means close to a million people have the virus so its not even remotely as lethal as we think.

No matter how you slice it it looks like shutting the country down is very questionable when compared to H1N1.

You "shut the country down" not because you will have 100% compliance, but because if you can get even 25% compliance (oftentimes by eliminating typical points of congregation) you significantly slow the transfer of the virus. It was the right move.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah, I'm not generally a 'pile on' sort as I like to tell people they're idiots in my own special way.

But c'mon - if you don't realize the impact of the restaurant and hotel industry on our economy and how devastating it will be to America when we shut those down, I think you can probably bow out of the 'WE HAVE TO SHUT IT DOWN!!!' conversation.

These are EXACTLY the concerns that so many people are trying to raise and being shouted down over.

And it's only the tip of the iceberg if we cannot find a path forward.

I was trying to find exact data on the number of employees more than the general “a lot”. Trying to find reputable numbers beyond the industry numbers. CNN said 7 million jobs lost. Pardon me for trying to find the correct number and not just accepting what the industry or CNN says.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Did you read what we were discussing?

Yes. Testing.

[BigRedChief]

Imagine spending your entire life raising a kid and this is how they turn out. https://t.co/SyKI5SvEcp

— Chelsea Handler (@chelseahandler) March 19, 2020

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

You "shut the country down" not because you will have 100% compliance, but because if you can get even 25% compliance (oftentimes by eliminating typical points of congregation) you significantly slow the transfer of the virus. It was the right move.

If we had 1MM cases of H1N1 on day 72 of the outbreak and we didn't shut the country down, and you are saying the only reason we don't have that many positives right now in the US is because of testing, how do you justify the difference?

If we have 1MM current cases then the mortality rate is in alignment with H1N1.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Donger

Yes. Testing.

So how many current cases do you think exist we don't know about?

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Some may disagree with these numbers but that's your choice...

We are currently running at a 1.45ish% death rate which as sad as it is, is actually better than it was last week by a full 1% and is eeking downwards.

And just to clarify this is based on the total number of deaths divided by total cases, active and closed.

By contrast, using the same process, Italy is running at an 8.3% rate

Yes. And as long as our hospitals don't get overwhelmed we can keep it there.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I was trying to find exact data on the number of employees more than the general “a lot”.

Okay but ultimately "a whole ****in' lot" is probably sufficient for the purposes of the conversation when the thesis is "why haven't we just closed every restaurant and bar already?!?!?!"

Even if you don't know the exact numbers, if you aren't aware of the massive scope in SOME capacity then it's a real hard conversation to meaningfully involve yourself in.

At that point you're just dogmatically espousing a position rather than actually analyzing anybody's.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Italy has now surpassed China in deaths. There is something wrong going on over there.

Its almost as if they didn't take it seriously enough and their hospitals got overwhelmed and their death rate shot up.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

So how many current cases do you think exist we don't know about?

I have no idea, but I'd guess in between 5 and 10,000. We'll never really know for certain.

[DaneMcCloud]

There is absolutely no doubt that the Federal government will need to enact a "Freeze" on mortgages, rent, utilities and loans.

Otherwise, we're going to see a massive amount of civil unreset, which may lead to far more deaths than a "contained" virus.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

So how many current cases do you think exist we don't know about?

500k to 1 mil

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Donger

I have no idea, but I'd guess in between 5 and 10,000. We'll never really know for certain.

10,000 max? I mean if that's the case the shutdown is a huge mistake.

I honestly cant come up with a justification for this craziness when you look at how fast H1N1 spread and we didn't come close to doing this to our country.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by loochy

500k to 1 mil

Then its not that dangerous of a bug.