***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

19K deaths in the next week seems unlikely.

Who said anything about 20,000 total deaths in the next week?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Part of that is they just have an older population, but have you stopped to think about why they have more deaths? We are lagging behind them on when the majority of cases have been found. Much more of their cases have a result.

JFC, you could find doom and gloom in winning the lottery. I am fully convinced of that right now.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Donger

Who said anything about 20,000 total deaths in the next week?

He said "soon"...don't start going all DC Donger again

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by DaFace

These two statements aren't consistent. You're comparing death rates - not deaths.

(You also edited your post to add the last sentence after I had already replied.)

Ok, I get it, even though it was clear what I was referring to which is deaths per 1MM total population, clearly showed Italy is 40x higher, you couldn't make the simple connection and when I explained it you couldn't just say Oh I see.

And then when I clarified you just had get snarky about it.

I got it.

[BIG_DADDY]

Originally Posted by BWillieHysterical

Where is this coming from though? If we aren't testing the asymptomatic population then how do we know? We need tangible numbers. Otherwise your 80% is just arbitrary.

Congratulations you got it.

To me this is pretty simple shit. We are already spending a ton of money to ride this out. You simply can't take out the pack for 1% of the population. My guess is the numbers in the end are going to be significantly less than that, WAY less. Even if I had to die being I am in the at risk category I would rather have that than plunge our country into a great depression. We need to get set as good as we reasonably can and get back to work ASAP.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Whoa, this data has me convinced now. I guess we'll see 20,000 deaths in this country soon.

We'll almost certainly sail past that.

Again - this isn't about 'acceptable' deaths. It's about inevitable ones.

It's a brand new damn disease unleashed on a population of 350 million people. A lot of people are going to die.

That's what a curve does, guys. It goes up. It goes way up at times. The 'flatten the curve' idea doesn't mean maintain a straight line. It recognizes the inevitability of deaths because of this and simply looks for ways to reduce how steep that curve is. And in exchange for reducing how steep it is, it makes the hump wider.

But in all instances, there ARE deaths and likely quite a few of them.

****ing pandemics suck and I just don't know what else to say about that. If the US manages to stay below 100,000 over a prolonged period of time it will be a statistical anomaly.

And maybe that's why I've seen this a bit differently than many. Perhaps there's a level of fatalism baked into my cake that others just don't have. Simply put - this is a disease that can kill people and WILL kill people. The idea that we were going to be able to take steps to yield fatality figures that wouldn't shock the conscious is simply unrealistic. That's GOING to happen.

I just hope we aren't doing things that will only prolong the inevitable and in the end make outcomes for everyone, infected or otherwise, as bad or worse.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

He said "soon"...don't start going all DC Donger again

That can mean anything. Like I said, I haven't seen anyone state that we'll have 20,000 deaths soon, or in the next week.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by Donger

Who said anything about 20,000 total deaths in the next week?

Dis doo

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

There will be around 341 deaths tomorrow.

There will be around 3800 deaths in the coming week.

Less sure but tracking to see 20,000 deaths next week.

It is math. It’s actually fairly easy to track since it’s based on trends built on hundreds of thousands of cases. You can take death rates from almost any country and work it backwards using this math.

All of the variables Pete is citing are not necessarily wrong, they just don’t factor in a meaningful way into the numbers that will determine how many people will be hospitalized, require life support, and die. Age/etc hasn’t proven to be as much of a factor as maxing out the health care system. Again, the math clearly shows this.

I said last week that people just can’t comprehend yet what’s about to hit. But the math is super easy:

Takes on average 8 days from infection to death.

The current death rate of reported cases is around 12.2% (we actually saw 9 more people than I predicted yesterday).

When the health care system is overwhelmed like in Italy that rate goes up to as high as 24%.

The 11,000+ who were infected today will result in approximately 1,352 deaths a week from now.

It is just math.

[BIG_DADDY]

Originally Posted by Donger

Who said anything about 20,000 total deaths in the next week?

We are supposed to have 5 Wuhan's going by now. How can the skies be filled with the smoke and stench of all the burning bodies if we don't at least have that many? We can't really get into the 3.3M deaths needed to meet that minimum 1% threshold unless we really get this ball rolling.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Iceland's study suggests it might be around 50%.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/...ding-covid-19/

I've seen a handful at 30-40%.

But whatever the case may be, it does appear there are loads of people who got this and showed very little. The question becomes at that point whether they have developed sufficient antibodies to actually come out of the carrier pool.

And those antibody tests are still a ways behind in terms of volume, speed and efficacy.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

But here's the thing - the only hospitals demonstrating a significant capacity issue right now are in NY and indications now are that sufficient PPE has been secured to battle this to it's apex in NY.

there are still shortages today, hospitals and nurses using the same PPE’s for a whole shift or in some cases multiple days. Google it. It’s a fact. Today, not a month ago. I would have got fired for doing this once. I understand it’s a crisis. I worked for 10 years in an environment that was always in crisis. For instance, I know the best way to get human brains out of a lab coat.

The PPE shortage is an American nationwide problem. Why would I not use the term that it shouldn’t be happening in America?

Originally Posted by Donger

Cuomo said Thursday his office has reached out to city hospitals and while there may be some spot issues with distribution, they say they have adequate personal protective equipment for now. If they find themselves short, the governor said he'd have the state send more, adding "we have enough PPE for the immediate need." But New York doesn't have enough to last much longer, given an infection rate that Cuomo said earlier this week "continues unabated."

Originally Posted by Marcellus

http://betsymccaughey.com/we-didnt-h...-for-pandemic/

Read this and take from it what you like but NY specifically was warned in 2015 they didn't have enough supplies for a pandemic and they ignored it for the most part.

I don’t care who’s fault it is. Hence the deliberate “they”. I have no idea who’s “fault” it is. FEMA, Congress, the Governor, the President, Obama’s, the States, the Hospital etc. it’s probably multiple players fault. But, here we are and it needs to get fixed immediately.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by BIG_DADDY

Congratulations you got it.

To me this is pretty simple shit. We are already spending a ton of money to ride this out. You simply can't take out the pack for 1% of the population. My guess is the numbers in the end are going to be significantly less than that, WAY less. Even if I had to die being I am in the at risk category I would rather have that than plunge our country into a great depression. We need to get set as good as we reasonably can and get back to work ASAP.

It's all about balance. If, years from now, we look back at this and see that the CFR was around 0.5%, some people will say that the response was a complete overreaction. The issue is that Italy has shown us that the CFR spikes when the healthcare system is overloaded, so doing nothing would also cause that number to skyrocket.

As for "getting back to work," the reality is that that alone isn't going to save the economy. People aren't going to keep productivity up if their grandparents are dying or when our ice hockey rinks are being used as morgues.

All I know is that all the experts in this have essentially agreed that the only way to deal with this thing is to lock everything down and that not doing so would be catastrophic.

[Pablo]

Originally Posted by BIG_DADDY

We are supposed to have 5 Wuhan's going by now. How can the skies be filled with the smoke and stench of all the burning bodies if we don't at least have that many? We can't really get into the 3.3M deaths needed to meet that minimum 1% threshold unless we really get this ball rolling.

It only took one Wuhan for you to break down mentally and financially. You really want to pile on 4 more?

[BIG_DADDY]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Dis doo

Mathleader will take us to the promised land.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I don’t care who’s fault it is. Hence the deliberate “they”. I have no idea who’s “fault” it is. FEMA, Congress, the Governor, the President, Obama’s, the States, the Hospital etc. it’s probably multiple players fault. But, here we are and it needs to get fixed immediately.

Have you considered the possibility that those workers were either having some fun and/or being dicks?