***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

Some of that is that it was downplayed so much by the young generation that they (the media) is overplaying some young stories.

If you look at the numbers, it's still extremely rare for young healthy to have issues.

Do you have any up to date numbers regarding US cases? I can't seem to find much.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by TLO

It sounds like if you get to the point you need a respirator you're pretty much a goner anyway.

This sucks

Absolutely untrue.

[BIG_DADDY]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

Yeah lets not forget that this has just gotten started and that there is more evidence that this will not be a "winter" season virus only than there is that it will be a "winter" only virus.
Are you a non-believer or think that this is all being way over blown?

It's obviously a problem. We need to get our medical professionals all the best supplies we can. We also need to find a way to turn the economy back on in an intelligent systematic process so we don't sink the ship. I don't believe it's all one way or the other. We need to do our best on both ends.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Absolutely untrue.

Good. I'm glad to hear I'm not right in that thinking.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Here's how to save yourself right here:

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Recent flu seasons have seen CFRs close to .2, I wouldn't be surprised to see Covid-19 come in around the .2 - .5 range. We won't know accurate numbers for quite awhile (if ever).

This post isn't to disagree with yours, but just to provide additional context to the discussion.

CFR, R0, and all of the other epidemiologic parameters depend on so many things not related to the virus. R0 depends on how much social distancing is being practiced, probably population density, social customs, etc. CFR depends on the age demographics of the population, sex, blood type, and quality of medical care. So far the virus has hit hardest in economically developed countries. I think once the virus hits a high population density, economically disadvantaged area the outcome will be tragic. The one thing going for them is that the age demographics of most such areas are skewed toward younger populations.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Donger

Based on what data?

(Just to be clear I am ONLY concerned with US Covid data, hence why I only used US flu data)

Based on common sense reading of the available data. There are of course some "ifs" that go into it... here are the facts and ifs that lead me to believe in a fairly low (but higher than the flu) CFR.

IF The experts are correct that 50-80% of cases can go completely unnoticed.
IF The majority of people being tested and going into the data pool are the ones with the most severe symptoms (and celebrities)
FACT The disease has been in the US since early January and went unchecked with no social distancing or other controls for 6 weeks +
FACT Our current CFR is running around 1.5%
FACT That 1.5% is a current MAX. You almost always catch the deaths but with a disease like this you may be missing most of the cases.
IF You reasonably assume that there are at least 5 times as many cases in the wild as we are currently seeing numbers for... you can assume that the actual CFR is .3%

These aren't really pie in the sky assumptions.

Of course, things could change at any time but this is based on our current situation.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by cdcox

This post isn't to disagree with yours, but just to provide additional context to the discussion.

CFR, R0, and all of the other epidemiologic parameters depend on so many things not related to the virus. R0 depends on how much social distancing is being practiced, probably population density, social customs, etc. CFR depends on the age demographics of the population, sex, blood type, and quality of medical care. So far the virus has hit hardest in economically developed countries. I think once the virus hits a high population density, economically disadvantaged area the outcome will be tragic. The one thing going for them is that the age demographics of most such areas are skewed toward younger populations.

Yes and the age factor seems to be the single biggest one with this disease. But I just want to clarify, I am only discussing US figures to keep it simple and relatable.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

(Just to be clear I am ONLY concerned with US Covid data, hence why I only used US flu data)

Based on common sense reading of the available data. There are of course some "ifs" that go into it... here are the facts and ifs that lead me to believe in a fairly low (but higher than the flu) CFR.

IF The experts are correct that 50-80% of cases can go completely unnoticed.
IF The majority of people being tested and going into the data pool are the ones with the most severe symptoms (and celebrities)
FACT The disease has been in the US since early January and went unchecked with no social distancing or other controls for 6 weeks +
FACT Our current CFR is running around 1.5%
FACT That 1.5% is a current MAX. You almost always catch the deaths but with a disease like this you may be missing most of the cases.
IF You reasonably assume that there are at least 5 times as many cases in the wild as we are currently seeing numbers for... you can assume that the actual CFR is .3%

These aren't really pie in the sky assumptions.

Of course, things could change at any time but this is based on our current situation.

Would the fact that most of the reported positive people are early on in the fight change the numbers any?

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

(Just to be clear I am ONLY concerned with US Covid data, hence why I only used US flu data)

Based on common sense reading of the available data. There are of course some "ifs" that go into it... here are the facts and ifs that lead me to believe in a fairly low (but higher than the flu) CFR.

IF The experts are correct that 50-80% of cases can go completely unnoticed.
IF The majority of people being tested and going into the data pool are the ones with the most severe symptoms (and celebrities)
FACT The disease has been in the US since early January and went unchecked with no social distancing or other controls for 6 weeks +
FACT Our current CFR is running around 1.5%
FACT That 1.5% is a current MAX. You almost always catch the deaths but with a disease like this you may be missing most of the cases.
IF You reasonably assume that there are at least 5 times as many cases in the wild as we are currently seeing numbers for... you can assume that the actual CFR is .3%

These aren't really pie in the sky assumptions.

Of course, things could change at any time but this is based on our current situation.

I agree with most of your analysis here, except that you have omitted consideration that most US cases are in early stages, due to exponential growth of the number of cases.

[tk13]

I agree we aren't getting all the cases but we also don't know the people who were dying from pneumonia and such either.

Of course the biggest issue is still really trying to keep this from overrunning so bad that it overwhelms hospitals, regardless of how contagious or deadly it is. Even though we probably don't know the actual death rate we have plenty of evidence it can cause a lot of people to go to the hospital in a hurry.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by cdcox

I agree with most of your analysis here, except that you have omitted consideration that most US cases are in early stages, due to exponential growth of the number of cases.

yep, that is why I kept saying "current", you are correct that we may see a big shift due to lag times.

[philfree]

I've been out of the house about once a day it seems like. I travel in a small area and constantly disinfect and wash my hands and then I do it again. The wife hadn't been out of the house for 3 weeks but today she wanted sushi so we did curb side pickup. It made me nervous but I didn't want to tell her no since she was so excited. Then we've both done lots of online shopping. I try to spray down the boxes with disinfectant and then there's a constant flow of mail. I feel like my every move is a roll of the dice and If the wife gets it I don't think she'll make it.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by cdcox

I agree with most of your analysis here, except that you have omitted consideration that most US cases are in early stages, due to exponential growth of the number of cases.

If you look at confirmed cases from the 22nd (33,592) and consider that only 10% of the cases are discovered, the calculation yields a CRF of 0.006 (0.6%), which I consider my (NOT AN EXPERT) lower bound of the CFR.

This refers to the "true" CFR, accounting for all cases, not just confirmed cases.

[FloridaMan88]

Since most people in NYC live in apartments/condominiums how is it possible to realistically prevent the airborne spread of the virus among individual apartment/condo units?

If one unit has a person infected with COVID-19 wouldn’t the virus spread through the air ducts to other units?