***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by O.city

Which slow walk back?

100-200k is significantly less than some scary numbers that were thrown around and I'd say he was shooting high with those numbers.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Donger

I would say until the present COVID-19 pandemic runs its course.

I tend to agree.

[Redbled]

Originally Posted by Monticore

If influenza kills 60k a year with a vaccine available , having a disease with higher CFR (lets say 0.6)and no vaccine 150-200k death is not that bold of a prediction. Social distancing should help reduce that but a second wave if it happen could get us back on track.

And also a virus that very few have built up immunity too. This is why anyone who ever called this “just another flu” were known to be ignorant from the start.

[carlos3652]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

I've been tracking this for a few days now and generally the number around 1 PM is half the total for the day.

However, I don't expect that, it could just be slowness on a Sunday.

Here's hoping otherwise.

fair enough. I haven’t been able to keep an eye on it that closely - just know the number around 5/6 is what is typically closer to end of day.

It wouldn’t surprise me if it’s only 400ish today.. it seems to stay in the same zone for 2-4 days before it jumps.

[Hammock Parties]

Well if CoronaVirus don't get us, this will.

Scientists Say They Can Recreate Living Dinosaurs Within the Next 5 Years http://t.co/NCHlCVx8ad by @Geoff_Weiss pic.twitter.com/4vk36Xa13Y

— Entrepreneur (@Entrepreneur) June 16, 2015

[Bowser]

Great, Nazis riding T-Rex's with frickin laser beams. Just what we need.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Well if CoronaVirus don't get us, this will.

Scientists Say They Can Recreate Living Dinosaurs Within the Next 5 Years http://t.co/NCHlCVx8ad by @Geoff_Weiss pic.twitter.com/4vk36Xa13Y

— Entrepreneur (@Entrepreneur) June 16, 2015

The Dinosaur King.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Redbled

And also a virus that very few have built up immunity too. This is why anyone who ever called this “just another flu” were known to be ignorant from the start.

I am hoping it is a CFR closer to 0.2 but even then It’s still twice as deadly.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

100-200k is significantly less than some scary numbers that were thrown around and I'd say he was shooting high with those numbers.

I don't recall any epidemiologist throwing such numbers around previously.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by Bowser

Great, Nazis riding T-Rex's with frickin laser beams. Just what we need.

**** the Nazis bro. Ill toss jew hating asses off a T-Rex and ride it myself.

[Donger]

So the CFR is still around 1.7%?

[Donger]

There are now more than 14,000 Air and Army National Guard personnel supporting the COVID-19 response efforts at the direction of their governors, according to a news release from the National Guard.

Twenty-two states and two US territories now have the “authority to command active and reserve component troops under control of a state’s governor,” the release said.

“We are using every tool available to get through this national crisis as fast as possible and get our great American economic juggernaut back to work,” Air Force Gen. Joseph Lengyel, chief of the National Guard Bureau, said in a statement. “COVID-19 is the most immediate threat facing our nation, and the virus knows no state boundaries. What the National Guard is doing in the states is part of a nationwide war on the coronavirus.”

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by Donger

While I'm not downplaying this bug at all, can you imagine if next year during "flu season," the same kind of focus on new case growth and deaths was reported daily?

If next years flu season starts tracking to the point where the country is going to run out of ventilators and ICU beds unless Americans are freaked out into taking social distancing seriously, then I for one hope they do. Until that happens, IDGF.

If we had sufficient medical capacity for covid 19, then it wouldn't be worth cratering the economy. But we don't.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by Donger

Sorry, but based on current CFR, 100,000 deaths means ~8,000,000 cases total. I just can't see that.

Four weeks ago did you see something like the current situation in NYC happening?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan

If next years flu season starts tracking to the point where the country is going to run out of ventilators and ICU beds unless Americans are freaked out into taking social distancing seriously, then I for one hope they do. Until that happens, IDGF.

If we had sufficient medical capacity for covid 19, then it wouldn't be worth cratering the economy. But we don't.

Completely non-political response, but I hope that once this thing is contained, we end up buying a gazillion ventilators and PPE. I'm sure that's one thing that we can all agree upon.