***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Its also worth noting that apparently yesterday's spike in deaths was related to Sunday's reporting being inaccurate due to NY not reporting completely on Sunday. If you average the 2 days its 468 and its a decrease from Saturday.

Yeah, something about NY's Sunday numbers never sat right anyway.

Expecting the bottom to fall out over a 24 hour period just defies common sense and the law of large numbers.

We'll see a continued decline in growth rates, then we'll see a decline in growth, then we'll see what people are truly looking for and that's the decline in raw numbers.

We're still on the uphill side and while doing that, we need to be looking at rates of growth (doubling, etc...) as signs of progress. And if anything pops up in that period that looks like an outlier, it almost certainly is.

And what's also been interesting is that it appears to this point that these deaths are due to the disease as a whole, not capacity issues. I've seen no indications yet that hospitals are being forced to leave patients to die or anything. Thus far our capacity has been taxed, but not broken.

Definitely a positive thing. And seeing as how NY remains something of a worst case scenario (in terms of factors contributing to spread combined w/ raw population size), I think that's a really good sign regarding our ability to stay in front of this.

But NY is going to have to come up with a battle plan that is completely different from pretty much the rest of the country. I'm not sure what they'll need to do going forward, but if 30 days from now the US is looking for ways to try to wake back up, NY has to find a different path because they'll explode again.

[penguinz]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Doesn't bother me.

MLB players have guaranteed contracts and have done nothing in violation of them. Why shouldn't they get paid? The service time thing is a weird question because of how easily it can be manipulated. I don't really know how to address that one. For instance, should a guy like Wander Franco or Dylan Carlson, who were almost certainly going to end up on a 25 man rosters this year, get a full season worth of service time when teams were almost certainly going to wait until June to call them up? Luis Robert is a bit of a moot point because he signed a major league deal w/ his extension, but he'd have been another really interesting question.

And then someone like Rangel Ravelo or Austin Gomber, who are technically on the 25 man right now for STL but most assuredly would've been riding the Memphis shuttle back and forth for most of the year, should they get the full season? I think their argument would be that if they got hurt on day 1 and missed the full year, they would have, so why wouldn't this count the same way? But again, in a 'regular' world, Ravelo would've spent less time on an MLB roster this year than Carlson would've, but because Carlson isn't on the 40 man right now, he'll get nothing and Ravelo gets a full season?

Service time's just a real tricky question and I don't think there's a good answer.

It is total BS. Look at Mookie Betts as an example. Dodgers traded for him and he is set to make $27M this years. If they accrue a years playing time without even playing then the Dodgers will have given him $27M just for fun and he will have never played for them.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

I get that doctors etc needed masks... But if everyone would have started wearing them wouldnt there be less infected, thus more PPE for medical professionals?

I guess we (SG, maybe CDC?) said that masks won't help you at the start of this to try to prevent hoarding so that our pros wouldn't go short, but.... yeah, when I saw that, I just shook my head.

[Monticore]

They are recommending in Ontario that anybody over 70 self quarantine now , not to leave the house for store runs etc..

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

What I've read is that you would need a BILLION masks in the USA to pull that off.

And we should make that many and have them ready for next time.

[penguinz]

Originally Posted by Donger

I guess we (SG, maybe CDC?) said that masks won't help you at the start of this to try to prevent hoarding so that our pros wouldn't go short, but.... yeah, when I saw that, I just shook my head.

I remember seeing a public announcement from I think the SG telling people not to buy them because they will not work but if you already have them to donate them to the medical community so that they can stay safe.

So basically said they won't work for you but they will work for a doctor.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

It would be a little surreal, but it would also give people at home something to grab onto a bit.

And man, time is unbeaten and untied. A guy like Justin Verlander or Zack Greinke or even Clayton Kershaw - those dudes are looking at just a few years left in the league. Or at/near their peaks.

Verlander has his ring(s) but Kershaw and Greinke, if you tell them that they just don't get a shot at it this year because games without fans would be weird, you're taking away one of their last, best shots at the culmination of a lifelong dream.

And then you look at cap sports like the NBA or NHL, you've got teams that made decisions with their cap for this season that are somewhat 'all-in' and now to what effect? The Lakers only have 2-3 years left with LeBron at/near this level. The Blues have pushed hard against their cap this year (likely to the detriment of the next few years) in an attempt to defend their cup.

I think if you can play games without fans in a way that doesn't pose a direct health risk to the players (rapid testing should allow for that), I think you should go ahead and play. It would be good for the national mood, IMO and it's a better solution for those players than just telling them they won't get a shot.

Everything's just a question of finding the best of bad options at this point, but I think there are enough factors weighing in favor of playing that all leagues should be looking for ways to do so.

I agree and Cowherd was talking about the NBA trying to resume their season\playoffs in a single location with no fans and players tested prior to playing.

One of the proposals on the table is gathering the entire league in one site to conclude the season. This proposal would involve playing games without fans present, but televising the contests. That would involve a 5-to-7 game regular season, followed by the playoffs.

Sites rumored to be under consideration are Las Vegas, Orlando, Hawaii, Atlantic City, Louisville and the Bahamas. Any site would have to have basketball facilities, as well as well as plenty of room to house the teams in a closed environment.

[Boise_Chief]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

I'm with MLB on this one. Sports with no fans would be stupid.

I disagree, I think any distraction would be good for morale and mental health. I'm going to watch a PPV online race on friday with 20 some youtube stars racing crown vic's in Florida. Cleetus McFarlands Freedom 500. I hope it doesnt suck but for 10 bucks who cares really. It's a group of most of the car youtubers being stupid but should be a couple of hours of distraction.

[Why Not?]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I think the normalcy of baseball games after 9/11 did help the country move on. It was important. But, in this case, why would baseball risk it unless giving the all clear from scientists and the government to play baseball?

Question for the lawyer in ya:
If any business is open in America and not considered "essential" and your employees or customers catch coronavirus attending or patronizing their business, are they at legal risk of getting sued?

Not a lawyer, but related to a retired one. The burden of proof would make this type of lawsuit extremely difficult.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I think the normalcy of baseball games after 9/11 did help the country move on. It was important. But, in this case, why would baseball risk it unless giving the all clear from scientists and the government to play baseball?

Question for the lawyer in ya:
If any business is open in America and not considered "essential" and your employees or customers catch coronavirus attending or patronizing their business, are they at legal risk of getting sued?

I mean, the only way to not risk getting sued is to not leave your home. Ever. For anything. There's always a risk of getting sued.

Of losing biggly? Eh....really hard to say. I mean you're essentially asking to apply a strict liability analysis to it. If you opened back up and someone got sick, you're liable - regardless of what attempts you may have made to make things reasonably safe in light of events.

I think I'd have a hard time getting that sort of standard to stick. There's also some caveat emptor involved there. I mean, an employer can just lay you off right now. So if the answer is layoffs or opening and telling people 'hey, come in if you want to get paid...' well given that they were under no obligation to pay you, it's hard to say you were coerced into coming in. And if someone patronizes your establishment, again - they chose to go there.

I mean...you're talking about some real leaps in logic. Never underestimate juries and their willingness to make those leaps. And yeah, there are GOING to be instances of significant lawsuits that come of this (look at Annie Gunns in Chesterfield; 8 employees recently tested positive, IIRC). But whether or not they truly have merit? Well ultimately I'd argue it for money but I probably wouldn't be eager to pursue those on a contingency basis.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Why Not?

Not a lawyer, but related to a retired one. The burden of proof would make this type of lawsuit extremely difficult.

If you leave you ****ing house to go to a store that's on you. Not sure about the employee thing unless it's optional.

[Why Not?]

Originally Posted by Boise_Chief

I disagree, I think any distraction would be good for morale and mental health. I'm going to watch a PPV online race on friday with 20 some youtube stars racing crown vic's in Florida. Cleetus McFarlands Freedom 500. I hope it doesnt suck but for 10 bucks who cares really. It's a group of most of the car youtubers being stupid but should be a couple of hours of distraction.

Personally, I’d watch the **** outta crowd-less sports. I have the volume off half of the time anyway. However, the reality to me is becoming acceptance that basketball and hockey are done for this season. Baseball may be able to have a shortened season. I’m just hoping football is spared. Can you imagine having to wait until the fall of 2021 for football? **** that.

[dirk digler]

The Chinese Government issued a new order today restricting resumption of team sports, a heavy blow for pro basketball to return there soon as was planned. China's attempt to restart sports are being watched closely by leagues across the world. Huge issue is asymptomatic carriers

— Brian Windhorst (@WindhorstESPN) March 31, 2020

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by penguinz

It is total BS. Look at Mookie Betts as an example. Dodgers traded for him and he is set to make $27M this years. If they accrue a years playing time without even playing then the Dodgers will have given him $27M just for fun and he will have never played for them.

Which is why I believe that MLB should be doing everything it can to go out there and get games in. A 125 game season is still reasonably doable w/ some double-headers and expanded rosters.

But Mookie Betts shouldn't be forced to forego a year of MLB service time (setting his clock back another season and potentially costing him $30 million) AND give up his salary for this season.

Or flip it the other way - if I'm the Cardinals, the LAST thing I want is to have to sit on another season of the disastrous Brett Cecil or Dexter Fowler contracts. Take my money, Dex - just be gone.

The ripple effects would trickle down through all levels of baseball. I just don't see any way to press pause on this thing for a year in any manner that doesn't do massive damage to the players specifically.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

The Chinese Government issued a new order today restricting resumption of team sports, a heavy blow for pro basketball to return there soon as was planned. China's attempt to restart sports are being watched closely by leagues across the world. Huge issue is asymptomatic carriers

— Brian Windhorst (@WindhorstESPN) March 31, 2020

What are they so worried about? They have the virus 100% contained.