***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Sorce]

Don't know if this has been posted but you can view medical capacity and expected progression per state.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Rausch

There (of course) have been thefts of PPE equipment.

https://www.wapt.com/article/coronav...izers/31405904



https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ay/2896970001/

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/peop...r-offices.html

Yes, dirtbags are stealing the stuff from hospitals and everywhere else...

I don’t want anyone to think I’m pointing fingers at anyone. There will be plenty of time for finger pointing later. And when that does happen, it’s probably not going to be one fault line but many.

I’m sure my background is influencing my opinion. At least I had PPE to protect myself.

Shortages of PPE’s just needs to get fixed ASAP. Everyone needs to work together.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by TLO

I don't believe this is true. If no social distancing was done we were looking at up to 2 million deaths.

I think the NYC area will hit 100k by itself.

I think it's much worse but they'll slowly raise projections as time goes on to reduce panic.

I get it. I honestly don't know if it's the right or wrong way to go. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision...

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by D2112

My buddy lives in boca raton and he told me northern Florida doesn’t have too many cases. Mostly southern Florida.

And all of South Florida has been under a “safer at home” order for over a week.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by BWillie

My GF does cook but she doesn't live with me. If she caught the Ebolaids-19 I'd have no hope



Accurate. Come play me on Golden Tee. I am Golfnado. I will take you for all your fake coins are worth.



Yes. I have a large supply of chunky beef soup.

Although being fair if you are really into that game you should get that arcade machine.

[Chief Roundup]

WOW so now our task force is saying 240,000 deaths in the coming weeks.
WTF happened?

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

WOW so now our task force is saying 240,000 deaths in the coming weeks.
WTF happened?

People didn't listen?

[Pants]

Originally Posted by D2112

I know, and I understand that. But if testing people creates hysteria by the number of positive cases (and we’re testing more than the whole world) it’s still good to know the mortality rate. Who knows? Maybe our testing is more accurate than other countries?

Yeah. The more people you test, the lower the CFR will drop.

The problem is that even with a low CFR, the deaths are still going to be there just because this thing is spreading like a wildfire through gasoline-soaked grasslands.

The good news is that on a individual basis, GENERALLY speaking, your chances of dying by contracting this thing are probably much closer to the German numbers than the Italian.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

WOW so now our task force is saying 240,000 deaths in the coming weeks.
WTF happened?

The range is 100,000 to 240,000. However, Fauci made it clear yesterday that that 100,000 could be high.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

JFC, unless you are implying that CP is full of elderly posters with significant underlying health issues, most people here will likely fall in the 80% category, in terms of people who get COVID-19 and have minimal to no symptoms.

It was a joke

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Pants

Yeah. The more people you test, the lower the CFR will drop.

The problem is that even with a low CFR, the deaths are still going to be there just because this thing is spreading like a wildfire through gasoline-soaked grasslands.

The good news is that on a individual basis, GENERALLY speaking, your chances of dying by contracting this thing are probably much closer to the German numbers than the Italian.

Our CFR has actually increased with testing.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by DaFace

This is absolutely true, so I hope this doesn't come off as callous, but...

I do think it's still important - not for the purposes of driving policy necessarily, but for our own mental health - to keep in mind the context a bit. It sounds like most are now expecting this to be in the range of 100k to 200k people dead in the U.S. For context, cancer and heart disease both kill around 600k people per year, and accidents, respiratory illness, accidents, and Alzheimer's disease all kill around 150k per year. For an individual person in their 80s, this probably moves their chances of death in the next 12 months from like 15% to 20%. Is it concerning? Absolutely. Should we be taking precautions? Of course. But chances are, a vast majority of the people you know will be just fine.

All of the work we're doing is still absolutely necessary, as without doing anything we'd likely be talking about deaths in the millions. My only point is just that, if we all hunker down and do what we're supposed to do, we'll remember this time more in terms of everyone getting stuck at home and the economic impacts rather than because the number of fatalities was unfathomably horrific (and I say that as a good thing).

I'm more worried about developing countries than I am about the U.S., Italy, or Spain at this point.

True 100k - 240 k is still small % wise for a country w over 300 mil. It'll be rough but we will get through this.

[Pants]

Originally Posted by Donger

Our CFR has actually increased with testing.

There are many variables.

What do you think would happen to the CFR if we were to test every single person in the country right now and identify all of the positives?

[RollChiefsRoll]

Originally Posted by BossChief

It’s sad that as a race of people we aren’t smart enough to shut down travel (both interstate and especially across country borders) worldwide and have everyone shelter in place.

The fact the subways and airports are still open is so incredibly irresponsible that it’s unbelievable.

If we really are this stupid as a human race, we deserve the horrific outcome.

Setting aside the logistical nightmares it would entail, it’s kind of hard to shut down interstate travel when the U.S. Constitution guarantees it.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by Donger

The range is 100,000 to 240,000. However, Fauci made it clear yesterday that he hopes 100,000 could be high.

FYP.


and actually the model from washington says 83k. so thats a plus.