***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Pants

There are many variables.

What do you think would happen to the CFR if we were to test every single person in the country right now and identify all of the positives?

It would drop. But, what I stated is accurate.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

FYP.


and actually the model from washington says 83k. so thats a plus.

Not really a fix, but yes.

[Pants]

Originally Posted by Donger

It would drop. But, what I stated is accurate.

I didn't dispute the accuracy of your statement.

Do you not agree that, generally speaking, the more testing you do, the lower the CFR will drop?

Obviously, as a proportion of those who are currently sick and have already been tallied as positives inevitably die, the CFR will climb unless it's offset by even more testing.

[DJ's left nut]

I saw a 'US vs. EU' comparison and it seemed a little more apples to apples.

When you look at the EU as a whole, you the geographic spread we have in the US, you see the variety of population centers, you see different governments enacting different rules. You see different demographics within different regions and even different weather patterns. You see different lifestyles, cultures and behaviors.

Wouldn't looking at the EU and the US side by side provide the best wholesale outlook on potential outcomes?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Pants

I didn't dispute the accuracy of your statement.

Do you not agree that, generally speaking, the more testing you do, the lower the CFR will drop?

Obviously, as a proportion of those who are currently sick and have already been tallied as positives inevitably die, the CFR will climb unless it's offset by even more testing.

I already said that it would.

[Donger]

CNN)More data showing people without symptoms are fueling the spread of coronavirus have top officials rethinking whether the general public should be wearing masks.

New data out of Iceland shows 50% of those who tested positive said they were asymptomatic.

In the US, an estimated 25% of coronavirus carriers have no symptoms, said the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"One of the (pieces of) information that we have pretty much confirmed now is that a significant number of individuals that are infected actually remain asymptomatic. That may be as many as 25%," CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield told NPR.

To prevent further spread, the nation's top infectious disease expert says health officials are now re-examining guidance on face masks.

[Pants]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I saw a 'US vs. EU' comparison and it seemed a little more apples to apples.

When you look at the EU as a whole, you the geographic spread we have in the US, you see the variety of population centers, you see different governments enacting different rules. You see different demographics within different regions and even different weather patterns. You see different lifestyles, cultures and behaviors.

Wouldn't looking at the EU and the US side by side provide the best wholesale outlook on potential outcomes?

Maybe. The cultures differ WAAAAY more from country to country in Europe and the way they tackle this thing will be much more diverse, IMO. Also, Europe is just way denser than the US.

[Pants]

Originally Posted by Donger

CNN)More data showing people without symptoms are fueling the spread of coronavirus have top officials rethinking whether the general public should be wearing masks.

New data out of Iceland shows 50% of those who tested positive said they were asymptomatic.

In the US, an estimated 25% of coronavirus carriers have no symptoms, said the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"One of the (pieces of) information that we have pretty much confirmed now is that a significant number of individuals that are infected actually remain asymptomatic. That may be as many as 25%," CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield told NPR.

To prevent further spread, the nation's top infectious disease expert says health officials are now re-examining guidance on face masks.

This and the long incubation period make this thing as dangerous as it is.

What a cluster****.

Without these two factors, this would have been just another SARS/MARS/whatever. Sigh.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Pants

This and the long incubation period make this thing as dangerous as it is.

What a cluster****.

Without these two factors, this would have been just another SARS/MARS/whatever. Sigh.

Well, on the positive side, this will make it burn thru the population faster. So that will suck in the short term, but it gets us to the end game faster.

Especially if there are that many asymptomatic and mild symptom pts.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by RollChiefsRoll

Setting aside the logistical nightmares it would entail, it’s kind of hard to shut down interstate travel when the U.S. Constitution guarantees it.

They could shut down all domestic and international flights in a second.

[Donger]

Regarding Dr. Fauci's comments on the 100,000 deaths figure:

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

Well, on the positive side, this will make it burn thru the population faster. So that will suck in the short term, but it gets us to the end game faster.

Especially if there are that many asymptomatic and mild symptom pts.

I question what they mean by "mild" symptoms. 80% of people get mild symptoms. But does mild include everything up to having to be admitted to the hospital?

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by TLO

I question what they mean by "mild" symptoms. 80% of people get mild symptoms. But does mild include everything up to having to be admitted to the hospital?

Yes so if you feel like death but don't get hospitalized it's pretty mild, so you can be puking out your brain shitting on yourself and feel god awful but that's mild.

[dirk digler]

The VP in an interview this morning said the USA is most comparable to Italy.

Pence to CNN: "We think Italy may be the most comparable area to the United States at this point."

— Zeke Miller (@ZekeJMiller) April 1, 2020

[Pants]

Covidly has US up to a 3 now. So that's something.

UK still at 2.

I'm sure we will be back to 2 pretty soon too, though.