***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Pants]

Originally Posted by Donger

The Germans just spread world wars, not viruses.

I kinda wish they had won WWI sometimes. Don't you?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Pants

I kinda wish they had won WWI sometimes. Don't you?

Ummmmm, no.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

I think it is totally fair if people believe that the Chinese hid the scale and reality of this for as long as they did and that led to the problem being worse than it should have been. You can go back and read stories from December about something being loose but the Chinese authorities saying affirmatively that it wasn’t spreading person to person.

If it was the Germans who did the same thing then it would be fair to be upset at the Germans.

At some point someone is going to try to hold the Chinese government accountable. Will be interesting to see what happens.

I saw someone that said "hey, y'know all that US debt that the Chinese hold? Tell 'em to **** themselves...."

I mean, I know in my heart of hearts that this is wildly simplistic and ultimately not a real answer for a variety of reasons. I mean, the major reason being that we had ostensibly told them to go **** themselves WELL before this. If China decided to call all their notes due, we'd have just told 'em "nah, you can come take it..."

But still - it's a cathartic thought.

Ultimately China had better tread real lightly for the foreseeable future. It wouldn't take much of a catalyst for the whole world to simultaneously decide that a regime change is in order. At this point even Russia wouldn't bother stepping in the middle.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by Donger

Ummmmm, no.

You'd be enjoying a weinerschnitzel right now.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

On a relatively good news front:

According to Cuomo, 1,167 COVID patients were discharged yesterday and 1,297 were admitted.

So only 130 more people admitted to the hospital than were discharged.

Moreover, at present there are 12,226 people admitted when IMHE - Murray model released a mere 6 days ago that we're basing so many of these those dire projections off of said NYC would be at 50K by now. 3,000 ICU patients in NYC vs 10K projected.

Again, that was a model released 6 days ago that ASSUMED continued social distancing through the end of May.

We're just whipping the wheel back and forth based on 'models' that are absolutely useless with 72 hours of being counted on for policy decisions. It's completely nutty.

Agreed. I don't fault officials for erring on the side of caution but yeah, when a model is pretty much failed 3 days after it is made then the model is bad or the numbers put into it, etc. were done to achieve a particular output.

Let the data determine the facts not the other way around.

[Chief Roundup]

Getting a little political in here.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Mecca

You'd be enjoying a weinerschnitzel right now.

Is it Friday already!?

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I saw someone that said "hey, y'know all that US debt that the Chinese hold? Tell 'em to **** themselves...."

I mean, I know in my heart of hearts that this is wildly simplistic and ultimately not a real answer for a variety of reasons. I mean, the major reason being that we had ostensibly told them to go **** themselves WELL before this. If China decided to call all their notes due, we'd have just told 'em "nah, you can come take it..."

But still - it's a cathartic thought.

Ultimately China had better tread real lightly for the foreseeable future. It wouldn't take much of a catalyst for the whole world to simultaneously decide that a regime change is in order. At this point even Russia wouldn't bother stepping in the middle.

Picking a fight with a nuclear power that has about 1.5 billion people doesn't seem like a good idea.

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Picking a fight with a nuclear power that has about 1.5 billion people doesn't seem like a good idea.

Not to mention they produce something like 80% of all pharmaceuticals or the raw materials to make those pharmaceuticals.

[petegz28]

Rate of deaths is going the wrong way but some perspective, we've had almost 3 times as many recoveries in the last 24 hours as we have had deaths.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Donger

Ummmmm, no.

Eh - you'd have just had the EU 80 years earlier and hubbed out of Berlin instead of Brussels.

The idea that Europe would've just become one giant "Greater Germany" is a complete fiction. They'd have instilled some sort of top-down imperial oversight with the respective world leaders maintaining their titles and most of their authority. FFS, they were all related. Wilhelm, George and Nicholas were cousins - you think they'd have been put on a wall and shot?

The Nazi's never come to power, the Soviet Union never happens (Nicholas was bending more towards Democracy and had approached Wilson regarding democratization efforts) and the history of Britain and France probably doesn't change substantially.

There's no argument in favor of the Germans winning WWII - but there are a bunch of REAL good arguments in favor of them winning WWI. There are plenty against it as well, but I don't think there's a clear answer here. Especially had they been able to effectuate a knockout blow early in the campaign rather than bleed Europe and Russia white for 4+ years.

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by BIG_DADDY

It's 100k - 240k total, not 240k in the next few days. People really need to quit watching fear porn. First they compared it 1918 where 20-50M died. Currently we are under 50k in the entire world. Little difference there. Then we got the predictions that went from 3M deaths in the US and has incrementally worked it's way down. I know people who have had Corona but none of them died or had any complications. On the other hand I know a ton of people who are having their life destroyed. Lost job and income. Losing their businesses.Look around you instead of at all the fear porn on TV. Lets put this in perspective.

Deaths in the US annually

Car accidents almost 40k
Heart disease 650k
Cancer 600k
Unintentional injuries 170k
Chronic lower respiratory disease 160k
Stroke and cerebrovascular diseases 147k
Alzheimers 125k
Diabetes 84k
The flu 61k
Kidney disease 52k
Suicide 50k

The Wuhan virus is killing 10's of millions of Americans but not in the way exploited by the media with their fear porn. Millions are losing their job, their homes, businesses and life savings. We do this long enough we could have a great depression, awesome. The chance that covid 19 is what's going to take you out is slightly above zero. The death rate no matter what it is projecting at this moment is a grain of sand on the beach of what could happen to the quality of life for all of us if people keep buying into this BS.

JFC

What do you think the death tolls and numbers would be if we didn’t put in all the restrictions that are currently in place?

You’re a clown.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

Not to mention they produce something like 80% of all pharmaceuticals or the raw materials to make those pharmaceuticals.

That's the lesson to take away from all of this shit. I think it's time to bring the manufacturing of our medical devices and pharmaceuticals back to this country as a concern over national security.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Mecca

You'd be enjoying a weinerschnitzel right now.

Thanks for reminding me my Oktoberfest trip to Munich is probably not gonna happen.

[petegz28]

Recovery numbers should really start taking off. We are seeing a lot of states just now starting to report their first recoveries.