***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

2 weeks of being inside will do that to people, it will only get worse

shit i dont stay inside...


we go drive in the sticks everyday.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Population studies during the SARS outbreak demonstrated that medical masks offered a significant protective benefit from infection.

If everyone was wearing one it would offer global protection because all the infected people are wearing them. A surgical mask gets moist after maybe an hour maybe less then it loses its protection and can even be worse, an n95 loses its effectiveness after around 7-8 hours depending on user.

I am just going with the info our hospital is giving us .

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

2 weeks of being inside will do that to people, it will only get worse

I went for a 5 mile walk last night this weather has been absolutely amazing. It's been a nice staycation.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

the issue with what you've been saying about just keep firing rounds is that you wouldnt be firing bullets, they are people's lives. not bullets.

I'm not saying hurl bodies into the grinder either.

I'm saying target your shutdowns and slowdowns. Moreover, I'm also saying that I simply don't see a way that those lives aren't going to be impacted over a 3-6 month timeline anyway.

Do you? What's your actual 3 month plan here? 6 month plan?

Do you really think we can simply ask an entire country to do nothing for 6 months? We'll have 50% unemployment. Oh, and then we'll have cold/flu season, which will further tax respiratory demand. And eventually we'll still have the spread. It will still get to them, just as its getting to China now.

Tell me what your end game is.

Mine remains the idea of Variolation. You have GOT to isolate the most vulnerable and find means to keep them isolated. And in the meantime you have to be able to slow the spread through reducing your N of eligible carriers (that's why recoveries matters). A vaccine isn't coming in a meaningful period of time so that's not how it's going to happen.

By exposing younger/healthier populations to smaller doses of it through maintining reasonable social distancing, you allow antibodies to attack a smaller initial viral load, you reduce the more severe cases and you create an ever increasing population of people who can now withstand exposure.

In so doing you HEAVILY reduce the R0, exponential spread effectively dies on the vine and now you ARE dealing with something that travels at rates similar to seasonal flu. And if you can get there by October, you have a fighting chance through the winter months.

But man if you just try to hold this wall back indefinitely, we are ****ED when the pressure just becomes too much.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by kgrund

After all of this you are still taking China's word?! Of course it is due to "outsiders coming in". They had it all taken care of until others came back. This could very well be the case, but knowing that Communists almost always lie, I also would believe they are just saying it is coming from the outside to make them look better.

Not a chance China continue their bullshit from November and not pay dearly.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I DID! I even said the suggested 'worst case scenario' of 20% unemployment was unrealistic and we would likely see worse.

Your complete inability to ****ing read anything I say and then opine on it anyway is truly remarkable.

And by all means, point out where I said anything along the lines of 'don't practice social distancing'. Never said it even once. Never said anything approaching it.

You simply refuse to read anything and then argue against your straw man version of it.

This was an OBVIOUS outcome to anyone that would actually sit back and review everything instead of scream 'JUST STAY INSIDE!!!!' without thinking about its consequences.

I don't like reading your posts because you come off as a condescending asshole in most of them. No offence.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

How the **** can you say that? you dont know...

Originally Posted by HonestChieffan

Maybe he gets his data from the Georgia Gov...

this was a discussion about the 46 Americans that are asymptomatic that live in Florida. Both the cruise lines, the people and the govenor agree they show no symptoms. They are not sick.

You act like I was saying I personally had the military fly me out to the cruise ship. Checked them all out personally. Flew back in and gave my report to Chiefs planet?

Moot point, they are all getting off now.

I’ll not be responding to either one of your posts in the future. They seem to only have one negative purpose. There’s is enough negativity and bad shit happening all over the world. I’ll not participate in your posts that serve no purpose.

[Titty Meat]

This thread has turned into a brawl lol

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

lol I'm sorry, bro. I've told you this shit before. Your disposition is just SO far from endearing. It's insane.. and I know you're so jaded you don't even really care how you come off, but I seriously have to wonder about your mental health.

[O.city]

You can only hold back for so long. At some point, you can't keep everything locked down. We're buying time. You can only buy so much.

The end game here is a percent of the population gets this and either survives to become immune or doesn't.

[SuperBowl4]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

i mean hell where is the wall celebrating everyone that came back from vietnam alive? ww2? ww1?



there arent any that im aware of. there's probably a reason for that

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

vital information that im SURE the people that need it have. why does pete need to spend every day crying about the media not talking about it?


and with the # of asymptomatic (who knows how many) people out there walking around i'm not sure the recovered rate even means anything at this point towards knowing if the carrier pool is being reduced.


we wont know that until they actually do mass testing. THATS whats going to tell us what we really need to know

Yeah, it'll help signficantly.

But there's something of a specious driver here (I'm pretty sure I'm using that term correctly) in our fog of war.

Let's say that our unknown asymptomatic carrier population is massive - okay, then our pool of unknown 'recovered' parties is also probably pretty massive - right? Now let's say we actually don't have as many unknown asymptomatic carriers as we thought we might - well then the unknown recovered carriers will also be reduced accordingly.

So what I'm saying is that the unknowns are going to change raw numbers...but will they truly change ratios significantly? Will they change the shape of the graph or merely where we are on it? I think they'll change its shape somewhat, but what they'll really change is where we sit on it.

But in either event, our behaviors probably shouldn't change a lot until we see negative growth rates. So in that sense, I think 'known recoveries among confirmed cases' gives us a fair proxy for determining how much stock we can put in those rates. It gives us numbers we can attempt to scale up or down in placing ourselves in the model, but maybe doesn't fundamentally alter the models themselves.

I simply don't think its throwaway information. And I do think it's being under-reported but I'm also past expecting any kind of evenhanded approach from a media that knows that tragedy yields ratings.

[ThaVirus]

DJLN is definitely a smug douche but at least he explains his stance. I never leave a thread wondering how he feels about something because he's already posted a ****ing dissertation.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

I don't like reading your posts because you come off as a condescending asshole in most of them. No offence.

And yet you continue to respond as though you have any idea what's actually in them.

Interesting tact.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by O.city

You can only hold back for so long. At some point, you can't keep everything locked down. We're buying time. You can only buy so much.

The end game here is a percent of the population gets this and either survives to become immune or doesn't.

Yeah and you better have a plan for when you end this lock down. I shared my idea.

It seems we really had no plan initially when this all statted.