***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Wasn't our death rate like 1.2% or some shit like a week ago? It's already going up. Don't think it comes close to 10% though.

It was. And it was 2.5% the weeks before that.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by petegz28

It was. And it was 2.5% the weeks before that.

So hardly consistent?

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

I understand what’s being said.


Just don’t understand the logics behind it

They think your body is better able to fight it when there is less of it in your system, working theory it didn't get into more detail.

[Shiver Me Timbers]

Good article on China Flu and exit strategy

https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/202...rles-lockwood/

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Mecca

I don't think it's very realistic to not think it's going to increase.

Okay but that doesn't make us Italy. Increase does not mean 10%.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

The rate has gone from 2.5%ish to 1.2%ish back to 2.5%ish. We have been consistently well below that of Italy.

When was it 2.5% before now?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by jd1020

So hardly consistent?

Consistently well below Italy. Not even hardly.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Chiefs4TheWin

Going to get worse before it gets better for sure.

It's just frustrating to try to plow through the noise.

Because the curve 'bends' when growth rates decline, right? And if you go back to, say, March 22 - there are a lot of days where you see gains in day over day growth. Numbers are getting bigger, obviously, but their percentage growth is getting smaller. Part of that is a larger N, but again - that's a simple reality of flattening a curve. It's a necessary first step towards stalling growth outright and a clear sign of progress.

The problem with trying to extrapolate meaningful information though, is the reporting. Put it day over day and there are a lot of 8-9% increases in growth. There are a few 2-4% increases in growth. And then there are 3 days w/ 21, 22 and 29% increases in growth.

Well shit - that has to be signal noise, right? It isn't as though one day there was ACTUALLY a 2% increase in growth and the next a 22% increase in growth. It was a reporting/testing thing.

So the best you can do is plot the whole damn thing and get yourself a trend line. I went ahead and did it and we are showing an improved trendline in growth rate. The trendline has it cut roughly in half over that 10 day period.

But its undeniably true that things will continue to get worse before they get better. Day over day raw number growth is probably going to continue to get worse for a period of time nationwide. But so long as that growth rate trendline continues down, you're continuing to bend the models and make progress. Now done exponentially or logarithmically you can see the trendline flattening out a bit later in it curve so we may see slower gains there in the relatively near term, but we're still seeing gains. And 10 data points aren't enough for a whole lot of information, but if I had added additional days on the front side, those were major growth days that will only steepen the curve and I think incorrectly.

There simply isn't going to be a VC day where we have a clear victory over Coronavirus. It's gonna be a slog.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Consistently well below Italy. Not even hardly.

You are back pedaling now. You never made the distinction of it being "consistently below Italy."

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

True, but if the goal is an R0 at/below 1, there is a level of 'heightened and modified' daily life that can be resumed.

If you aren't showing symptoms but you ARE doing things like keeping up heightened levels of hygiene, avoiding prolonged close contact w/ others and keeping yourself away from at-risk populations, you can still operate at, what, 70% normal?

I just think too many people are acting as though there's NO distinction worth drawing between the openly sick (symptomatic) and those that are asymptomatic.

I still think one of the most fascinating things I've seen on this is the distinction between case progression and initial viral load. It seems more and more likely that people who get hit with this in a big wave at the front are wholly unequipped to deal with it and those are the folks who's bodies are prone to those cytokine storms where their body just goes into overdrive trying to catch up and they end up with horrifying outcomes.

People who get this from some kind of minimal contact w/ touching a handle with small amounts of virus on it and exposing themselves to low initial viral loads are believed to handle it very well. Those that are inhaling when someone sneezes in their face...well not so much there. That's the prevailing theory on healthcare workers as well - they're just taking a constant storm early on in their body's battle with it.

Asymptomatic carriers theoretically carry an equal viral load, but they don't actually expel/expose people as heavily IF they maintain those initial precautions (hygeine, etc...). Catching it from an asymptomatic carrier is likely to yield a less extreme outcome, in other words. Again, just based on information as we're processing it and of course over large numbers. There will undoubtedly be exceptions in both directions.

I think we miss the mark if we don't recognize some pretty key distinctions in how symptomatic vs. asymptomatic appears to be operating on the ground.

Interesting... I read a theory or two on asymptomatic carriers, but that was a couple weeks ago and I know those theories are constantly evolving.

We do tend to lose focus on the basics when there's so much panic...
CDC, a few weeks ago: Wash your hands and don't touch your face.
A couple weeks ago: That's obviously too hard, better practice social distancing.
10 days ago: Ok, shut it down... dumbasses.

And I know that's generalizing it and we're still learning about how contagious it is when it comes to surface contact vs. coughing on someone vs. simply talking and breathing in close quarters, etc.

I never get general flu symptoms (not to say I wouldn't get Covid symptoms) and I'm admittedly pretty clueless on how contagious I've been or would be. This is good info, albeit info that I know could change tomorrow.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Donger

When was it 2.5% before now?

Couple weeks ago. You can go see my posts in bayon's thread in DC where I was pointing out on almost a daily basis that we were dropping. Probably could even find some in this thread. Probably even find some of you ridiculing me for pointing it out as well.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Mo is not even in the top 20 of cases. In fact, KMBC had an article this morning stating that as hospitals gear up, the virus itself is trending down in the KC metro area.

Man I hope that is right. KC instituted thier lock down what 2 weeks ago?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

i don’t get the “ initial hit has to do with how bad it gets” line.

Maybe I don’t understand enough about viruses but don’t they just multiply once they start infecting you?

They actually infect your cells a use those "machines" in there to multiply. They're sneaky ****ers.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by jd1020

You are back pedaling now. You never made the distinction of it being "consistently below Italy."

No, I am not. We have consistently been between 2.5% and 1.2% as well

[dirk digler]

BTW like daface pointed out I wouldn't pay any attention to testing\new cases numbers. I read yesterday they have backlogs of hundreds of thousands of tests.