***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

You asked earlier what my plan would be and honestly I had never thought about it. I have ever since though.

I would have shut everything down when they started the 15 days to slow the spread. Quarantine style. Give everyone enough time to get food and lock down.
After 3 weeks you have to test good to get out and go back to work. Anyone that doesn’t test good stays in until they do.

The healthy people would all be going back to work next week if they had done that.

But they don't have the laboratory capacity to do that. And certainly won't by next week. Lock it down 2 weeks ago - you STILL won't have the ability to test the people you want tested for a long period of time. And I presume this is on a national scale? Because if not, those that test negative will still eventually become positive as they haven't been removed as carriers.

Which is why I harp on the necessity of 'not starting the clock too soon...'

Ideally you run out of political will on the part of the population the SECOND they turn the switch on the 'infinite testing machine' that will allow that massive, across the board testing that you're advocating for. And I don't disagree with you for one second that it should be the goal. Yes, massive testing and a therapeutic treatment that reduces the length/severity of this disease will change EVERYTHING.

But that goal is still weeks away, if we get to it at all. So in the meantime I think the line should be locking down the older/vulnerable, slow-playing the younger, healthy (and buying yourself time on the 'public unrest' clock) and trying to match those respective end-points just as well as you can.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Spend much time in rural Missouri?

Harm or not, what I'm saying is that most of them will simply ignore it.

And yeah, lack of existing medical infrastructure is a concern in rural areas, but it's a concern that isn't going anywhere. Ever. So if you just try to effectively wall them off - what happens in a few months? Same thing. The 'buy time' argument in regions with significant hospital capacity that just needs to gear up and bear down - I can see that argument. I agree (partially ) with it.

But man - what's stalling for time due in Sullivan County? How are you going to appreciably alter outcomes over a real timeline by having Parson tell them to stay at home? Which they will largely ignore anyway?

What may actually HELP someplace like that could be having your impact come through now, when statewide travel is already reduced due to major counties closing their gates (thus slowing the initial influx). And when you have very few ancillary respiratory issues that would otherwise be bogging down what little hospital capacity they already have.

When stalling isn't likely to yield significant benefit to them - timing their window could be what's more important. And because of the nature of spread over distance, it will also have it slowly work through those rural counties and thus reduce the possibility of a larger outbreak when a state-wide order is lifted.

You ask what the harm is, but I struggle to see any clear benefit either. So ultimately shouldn't they be able to maintain some level of autonomy?

The issue around here is that there are no hospitals. 30 miles in either direction. Nearest trauma center is at least an hour away. There’s over 100k people easily for 2 hospitals that aren’t equipped with near what one in kc is.

Keeping everyone apart to slow the spread is all that will help imo

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Yep, they used the word "trending" based on 1 day.....except they didn't

Here is what was said...

Yeah but by looking at the numbers they only went down for one day. They didn’t have to say it

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Those rural economies are so insular, though.

They have nominal impact on the greater Missouri economy and shuttering them early would be brutal in those areas, where they're truly not equipped for it.

And let's not ignore the elephant in the room which is drug abuse in rural areas. I mentioned it with Sauto previously but until you kinda occupy the space a little, you don't understand how insidious it is in smaller rural communities.

I think some of the worries that exist in more urban regions are essentially exponentially increased in rural ones. And I think the benefits of stalling are reduced a fair amount as well (as will be any adherence to the order as it stands).

I think they need a real light touch and dropping a statewide hammer when half the counties in the state haven't been impacted yet is just not the way to do it. You need to make them come to the idea, not force the idea onto them. It's the only way to get a response that matters and it's the best way to minimize negative impacts and still trying to extract some positive ones.

A tip of the cap to ya sir you make a very compelling argument. And I must say you make me realize what a city slicker I truly am. I'll also say I'm impressed with my fellow Missourians on this board you've schooled me a little bit on the rural culture, and also learning about the rift between St.Louis & MU. I find it to be fascinating stuff.


With that said I see what you're about the light touch of the hammer but boy with how this thing hits it COULD be too late just seems like a proactive response has been the best measure just about everywhere but again you've made a sound argument why that might not be the case in MO.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by oaklandhater

it's weird how this map about how ppl in the south are still traveling corresponds directly to the locations of food deserts in this country. these 2 things are probably totally unrelated, I'm sure pic.twitter.com/nXwjCdygel

— the thicc husband & father (@lukeisamazing) April 2, 2020

I'd ask you what point you're trying to make here but I'm confident you have no idea.

I suspect it's an attempt to shit on those backwoods southern hicks again. I mean...that's not what that map actually does at all, but it's pretty much right in your wheelhouse.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

The issue around here is that there are no hospitals. 30 miles in either direction. Nearest trauma center is at least an hour away. There’s over 100k people easily for 2 hospitals that aren’t equipped with near what one in kc is.

Keeping everyone apart to slow the spread is all that will help imo

That's where I'm at when I heard Parsons mention Kemper Arena (which isnt a thing) as a makeshift hospital I thought "oh boy"

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

Yeah but by looking at the numbers they only went down for one day. They didn’t have to say it

What numbers are you claiming they are looking at since they didn't specify?

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

But they don't have the laboratory capacity to do that. And certainly won't by next week. Lock it down 2 weeks ago - you STILL won't have the ability to test the people you want tested for a long period of time. And I presume this is on a national scale? Because if not, those that test negative will still eventually become positive as they haven't been removed as carriers.

Which is why I harp on the necessity of 'not starting the clock too soon...'

Ideally you run out of political will on the part of the population the SECOND they turn the switch on the 'infinite testing machine' that will allow that massive, across the board testing that you're advocating for. And I don't disagree with you for one second that it should be the goal. Yes, massive testing and a therapeutic treatment that reduces the length/severity of this disease will change EVERYTHING.

But that goal is still weeks away, if we get to it at all. So in the meantime I think the line should be locking down the older/vulnerable, slow-playing the younger, healthy (and buying yourself time on the 'public unrest' clock) and trying to match those respective end-points just as well as you can.

The stimulus bills should be focused on buying yourself tons on the public unrest clock.

But they all want to money everywhere else also. Probably enough about that here though lol

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by petegz28

What numbers are you claiming they are looking at since they didn't specify?

Well what numbers would be used to say it’s trending down?

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by petegz28

What numbers are you claiming they are looking at since they didn't specify?

And this also makes the point that them saying that doesn’t really mean a ****ing thing.

If it was really trending down and it looked sustainable they would have shown their work...

[TLO]

Missouri cases yesterday

Cases in Missouri: 1581

Total Deaths: 18

Patients tested in Missouri (by all labs): approximately 19,430

Missouri cases today

Cases in Missouri: 1834

Total Deaths: 19

Patients tested in Missouri (by all labs): approximately 19,430 (number not updated yet today )

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I'd ask you what point you're trying to make here but I'm confident you have no idea.

I suspect it's an attempt to shit on those backwoods southern hicks again. I mean...that's not what that map actually does at all, but it's pretty much right in your wheelhouse.

The guy is a 1 trick pony and does a masterful job at flirting with the line of Non Politics.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

The issue around here is that there are no hospitals. 30 miles in either direction. Nearest trauma center is at least an hour away. There’s over 100k people easily for 2 hospitals that aren’t equipped with near what one in kc is.

Keeping everyone apart to slow the spread is all that will help imo

And so I guess our disconnect comes in our confidence of a readily available solution over the next 8-12 weeks.

IF I thought we would see a scenario where pro-active testing (even of the healthy population) and rapid results, combined with a viable therapeutic/prophylactic treatment regiment were likely to come online in a significant enough way that you could truly and permanently prevent an eventual hard spread through rural communities, I'd be inclined to agree with you.

But I'm nowhere near confident of that. And if you bank on it and it doesn't come, then you'll lose those rural communities quickly. They simply won't have the patience to deal with watching their lives crash around them while there's no active problem anywhere near them.

Then come late summer, early fall you'll see the inevitable backlash, they'll get back to 'business as usual' and then if/when it does get there, you'll see the same spread in the same area with the same lack of resources and now you'll have a doubly large problem because respiratory disease season will be inbound to further compound things.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Those rural economies are so insular, though.

They have nominal impact on the greater Missouri economy and shuttering them early would be brutal in those areas, where they're truly not equipped for it.

And let's not ignore the elephant in the room which is drug abuse in rural areas. I mentioned it with Sauto previously but until you kinda occupy the space a little, you don't understand how insidious it is in smaller rural communities.

I think some of the worries that exist in more urban regions are essentially exponentially increased in rural ones. And I think the benefits of stalling are reduced a fair amount as well (as will be any adherence to the order as it stands).

I think they need a real light touch and dropping a statewide hammer when half the counties in the state haven't been impacted yet is just not the way to do it. You need to make them come to the idea, not force the idea onto them. It's the only way to get a response that matters and it's the best way to minimize negative impacts and still trying to extract some positive ones.

This is mostly true and I live in a small town here in MO obviously. My concern is that these rural hospitals, heck even here in Clinton, can't or won't handle COVID patients. So they will send them to KC, St. Louis, Columbia or Springfield which need to handle their cities Covid infected population as well.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

The stimulus bills should be focused on buying yourself tons on the public unrest clock.

But they all want to money everywhere else also. Probably enough about that here though lol

That's another thing I thought about "oh we can just bailout those rural areas" well KC itself might not be getting federal corona stimulus money as the city population doesnt qualify. That's a real big issue....