***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[DanT]

Originally Posted by RunKC

“This is going to be our Pearl Harbor moment, our 9/11 moment,” U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams

How bad do we think this week is gonna be?

Sadly, we'll likely lose more this week than we lost in both of those events combined. According to the references in this story, we lost 2,335 military personnel in the Pearl Harbor attack and 2,977 in the 9/11 terrorist attack. For the upcoming week, the IHME model is projecting daily deaths counts from COVID-19 of at least 1,000 every day this upcoming week. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

[TLO]

Originally Posted by blake5676

Missouri was at somewhere around 2k projected deaths a few updates ago and now we're all the way down to 350ish? And last update had our peak all the way in late May and now we're back to peaking in about two weeks.

Right?? I have no idea what's happening.

[DanT]

Originally Posted by blake5676

Missouri was at somewhere around 2k projected deaths a few updates ago and now we're all the way down to 350ish? And last update had our peak all the way in late May and now we're back to peaking in about two weeks.

I believe that is because Governor Parson just issued a Stay-at-Home order, which will take effect Monday. https://news.stlpublicradio.org/post...order#stream/0

The IHME model assumes that the effect of that order will be dramatic. You can see at the IHME website what actions have been or will be taken and when.

[jerryaldini]

Originally Posted by KS Smitty

"...assuming full social distancing"

I think we all can agree that that isn't happening and I sure hope those projections are off. Just based off traffic on the roadways here very few people are truly only going out for essentials and when they do they have no regard for social distancing when they're after a specific thing.

Missouri is one of seven remaining states with an F grade for distancing using cell phone data. The others are Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Iowa, Oklahoma, Wyoming. Jackson County has a D grade. That's why there's so much upside in their data if they improve quickly.

https://www.unacast.com/covid19/soci...ing-scoreboard

[arrwheader]

Originally Posted by DanT

Sadly, we'll likely lose more this week than we lost in both of those events combined. According to the references in this story, we lost 2,335 military personnel in the Pearl Harbor attack and 2,977 in the 9/11 terrorist attack. For the upcoming week, the IHME model is projecting daily deaths counts from COVID-19 of at least 1,000 every day this upcoming week. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

This whole comparison of the virus death's to people dying in war time attacks is dumb. We don't say that about people dying from heart disease or whatever else that kills hundreds of thousands of people a day.

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Pat Robertson has always been on of the most ignorant person on the planet.

There's zero chance he's actually that ****ing stupid.

[Ninerfan11]

Originally Posted by LiveSteam

I believe projections of death are off by a factor of over 10.
I pray Im right

You might be...the models are c9onstantly changing

[srvy]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

It's cuz SRVY is a complete jackass and should kill himself.

Awe hurt some feels little boy?

Go out for a drive and stall on a RR track.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by srvy

Awe hurt some feels little boy?

Go out for a drive and stall on a RR track.

That'd probably be a death sentence for someone with your intelligence, but not for me. I'd just get out of my car and walk to safety.

[srvy]

yeah, you strike me as a real genius.

[DanT]

Originally Posted by arrwheader

This whole comparison of the virus death's to people dying in war time attacks is dumb. We don't say that about people dying from heart disease or whatever else that kills hundreds of thousands of people a day.

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

In the United States in 2017, there were 647,457 deaths from heart disease, about 1,800 per day.( https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/lea...s-of-death.htm ) The total number of deaths that year was 2,813,503 (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm), about 7,700 per day. Having a 2 or 3 thousand die in one day from a virus is notable, which is why the Surgeon General made the remarks he did. In the first source I cited, the number of "influenza and pneumonia" deaths for 2017 was 55,672, about 150 per day.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by LiveSteam

So. NY has over 200 deaths per million and California has 4.5 per million.
That. Or AM radio is lying

San Francisco and then CA shut things down quicker than NYC and NY.

Mayor of NYC was resistant, especially to closing schools.

I don't know about the whole state but the little part I see, the traffic is way way down. People generally look like they take it seriously.

There is probably some randomness with small groups getting sick at the beginning and seeding the spread. Maybe NY got unlucky.

CA is one of the least obese states so that might also be helping to keep the deaths down.

[srvy]

Originally Posted by DanT

In the United States in 2017, there were 647,457 deaths from heart disease, about 1,800 per day.( https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/lea...s-of-death.htm ) The total number of deaths that year was 2,813,503 (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm), about 7,700 per day. Having a 2 or 3 thousand die in one day from a virus is notable, which is why the Surgeon General made the remarks he did. In the first source I cited, the number of "influenza and pneumonia" deaths for 2017 was 55,672, about 150 per day.

I wonder what % of the population gets flu shots and also wonder what the number of deaths before flu shots were a thing.

[arrowheadnation]

Showing signs of turning the corner....a hint of positivity?

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by arrowheadnation

Showing signs of turning the corner....a hint of positivity?

Hopefully... See how this week goes.

Trump seems confident but medical experts are urging caution so who the **** knows honestly..

But within a week we should start to see the flattening of the curve for sure. The worst is almost over!