***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

You are pretty insane dude. Me saying infectious disease experts have been waiting their whole life for the big one does not in any way shape or form imply they are furthering their careers off it. That's like saying smoke jumpers who have always wanted to get into the fight keep the fire going intentionally. I could give you 10 more examples but I am not wasting my time on your dumb ass. Stop making my words mean what you want them to say.

Like I said before you obviously have never worked with subject matter experts in a field that contains risk, they always err on the side of extreme caution. Always.

Go **** yourself mr 'I know better than medical experts'.

Maybe Trump should be listening to guys like you and DJ's left Nut and not Dr Fauci and his team, since you both have all the answers.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Cuomo says NY hospitalization rate is down to 529 which is the lowest in weeks if I understand that correctly

May have hit the peak 2 days early.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...erica/new-york

[stumppy]

Seems to be heading towards the political side in here.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Dr. Anthony Fauci: There are 'good signs' in US battle against coronavirus, but we're far from 'claiming victory'

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/dr...ry/ar-BB12fedO

[burt]

I just don't understand what it is about this thread that get every ones panties in a wad. Y'all are trifling!!!

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Monticore

True , which sucks because we are all looking for the right answer which can work in many fields but the medical world is filled with maybes, try this, we don't know , the human body doesn't always do what it's told.

But again, that's exactly my point.

Why COULDN'T we have tried that in areas where they are well suited for it? Boone County would've been perfect. A relatively young population that's quite diverse because of the hospital/university staff. We have a HUGE medical presence here; almost 20% of the state's ICU capacity despite only having about 180K people. There was virtually no spread at all.

This would've been a perfect spot to take measured, tailored approaches and let them breathe for a bit. And there are areas like ours in every state in the union.

I'm not saying do that everywhere. I'm not saying take NY's approach everywhere. I'm saying the opposite of both things.

I've mentioned this before, but my buddy who went to The Citadel and did a couple tours and has had a nice little Army career always emphasized this - the guy who survives is the guy that takes that half a heartbeat when shit is going crazy to simply take stock of what is happening before he acts.

Nobody ever took a half a heartbeat to take a deep breath and move forward from there. Everyone was just racing to take the next wild swing and in the process we missed an invaluable opportunity to formulate a long-term plan. And we may have cut off our noses to spite our faces if all we've done in those areas is leave a large carrier population who will still be there to be part of the next spike in cases if we try to open things back up.

This attempt to force a top down approach across the board on everyone was simply a failure on several levels.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by stumppy

Seems to be heading towards the political side in here.

We've already dumped 18 people, and there are a few others who are wearing down our patience.

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Why would it be considered an overreaction if it worked?

Because of the massive cost to the economy and society.

If unemployment goes up to 20%+ will all of this be worth it?

And now studies are coming out, questioning the effectiveness of these massive social distancing measures.

Example:

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...-20/index.html

School closures may only have a small effect on stopping coronavirus, study says

Schools around the world have been shut to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus, but one team of scientists is questioning whether the havoc the closures are causing to millions of people is actually worth it — suggesting that the impact on the pandemic might be smaller than previously thought.

A new study by researchers at University College London said recent modeling studies of Covid-19 suggest that school closures alone would prevent only 2% to 4% of deaths — far fewer than other social distancing interventions.

The research, published in The Lancet Child and Adolescent Health medical journal late on Monday, reviewed 16 studies looking at past epidemics of SARS, MERS and seasonal flu, as well as others modeling the spread of the novel coronavirus, and found that the evidence to support national closures of schools to combat Covid-19 is "very weak."

[Perineum Ripper]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

Go **** yourself mr 'I know better than medical experts'.

Maybe Trump should be listening to guys like you and DJ's left Nut and not Dr Fauci and his team since you both have all the answers.

Step away from this, you are too emotional about all this. Anytime someone disagrees with you, you make up positions they are not even making. To argue with them.


You admit over and over you don’t know enough about this or that subject, but you still make comments on them. You admit you have overreacted, but then double down on it.


You admitted you didn’t read DJs posts, but then continued to argue with him about what he was saying.


Step away for a day, relax, quit getting so emotional about it. Emotion is fine but when it causes you to repeatedly step on your dick, it’s doing you no good.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

I think some outliers like Italy and that rest home in Washington freaked people the **** out and bunch of infectious disease specialist who have been waiting their whole career for "the big one" jumped in and started a snowball effect with their doomsday models.

This turned into a "better safe than sorry" mantra which frankly isn't justification for what we have done to the global economy. At least it sure doesn't look that way right now.

Thats not really how infectious disease guys roll though.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

Dr. Anthony Fauci: There are 'good signs' in US battle against coronavirus, but we're far from 'claiming victory'

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/dr...ry/ar-BB12fedO

"Everybody who knows me know I'm very conservative about making projections,*"

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

Dr. Anthony Fauci: There are 'good signs' in US battle against coronavirus, but we're far from 'claiming victory'

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/dr...ry/ar-BB12fedO

I’m getting a real sense around here that people think this thing is beat. I know more people were out this morning & I’ve been told that state workers are going back to work next week.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

If a splinter in your finger gets infected and you cut the arm off to stop the spread like you're in a Civil War field hospital, I'd say "hey, it stopped the spread..." is probably not the right approach.

There are a thousand different circumstances where an 'overreaction that works' is still an overreaction. Shit, it has its own word, does it not? Isn't that the entire concept of 'overkill'?

C'mon.

Overkill is a common approach in medicine , (resection/chemo/radiation) might not always be needed in some situations but I would choose overkill every time.

I have seen people choose total bilateral mastectomy because they tested positive for the breast cancer gene only and I have see a lot of people die because they choose a lumpectomy instead of mastectomy .

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DaFace

We've already dumped 18 people, and there are a few others who are wearing down our patience.

{cocks head like quizzical labrador}

I KNEW I should've taken y'all up on that invitation to the moderators lounge...

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

I don't know enough about viruses and pandemics to comment. I will say this all hindsight you are posting our medical experts don't have that luxury. A lot of people could die based on their recommendations and they would have to live with that.

We have no idea how bad this could have gotten if less strict social distancing measures were not put into place. I don't know about you but it's better to be safe than sorry in that regard.

Yup plus once again I encourage everyone to go look at China and SK. They start opening things up and then have to pull back. We won't be any different.