***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[penguinz]

Originally Posted by Monticore

We could deal with these pandemics much easier without the need for lockdowns if we made cigarettes and alcohol illegal.

because making alcohol illegal worked so well 100 years ago.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by penguinz

because making alcohol illegal worked so well 100 years ago.

Well depends on who you ask. Al Capone and the mafia seemed to enjoy it.

[Titty Meat]

Could you imagine people during this time of lockdowns without cigs and liquor?

[dirk digler]

for those wondering on the IHME model they did start out using China data but new info and how well the social distancing is working made them adjust their model.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/healt...del/index.html

When the model was first released, the only place that had reached its coronavirus "peak" was Wuhan, China, according to the IHME researchers.

But as of Monday, seven locations in Spain and Italy appear to have reached their apexes as well, providing a flood of new data for the model to analyze.

Those regions seem to have reached their peaks more quickly in the wake of social distancing measures, according to the researchers. That means that some states -- such as Florida, Virginia, Louisiana and West Virginia -- are now expected to hit their peaks earlier than previously expected, potentially giving them less time to prepare.

Beyond infusing the model with new data, researchers tweaked its methodology to better predict the spread of the virus in states that have seen few cases. And they also fine-tuned their analysis of social distancing measures after noticing that certain measures -- such as school closures -- appeared more impactful in some places than others.

Every state, and even regions within each state, have looked at the White House's guidance on non-essential travel differently, Murray said at a press conference on Monday.

Based on cell phone mobility data, for example, researchers found that "there's variability across state[s] in how mandates are being interpreted." Moving forward, researchers plan to explore whether incorporating that data will further improve predictions, Murray said.

On Thursday, for example, the model predicted that patients who needed intensive care would only stay in the hospital for eight days until being discharged. Now, they're expected to be hospitalized for 20. But patients who didn't need intensive care were originally thought to need a 15-day stay, compared to just over a week now.

As more data becomes available, those estimates -- like all of the model's projections -- will change. And importantly, they're based on the ongoing assumption that social distancing measures will continue for months, and will be implemented in places that have yet to do so.

According to Murray, the model's maker, the consequences could be dire if social distancing measures are relaxed or ignored: "The US will see greater death tolls, the death peak will be later, the burden on hospitals will be much greater and the economic costs will continue to grow."

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by Monticore

We could deal with these pandemics much easier without the need for lockdowns if we made cigarettes and alcohol illegal.

Or how about instead people just take personal responsibility for their health?

Is that too much to ask?

[Ninerfan11]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

for those wondering on the IHME model they did start out using China data but new info and how well the social distancing is working made them adjust their model.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/healt...del/index.html

IHME owned and created by Bill Gates.....no thank you.

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by Monticore

We could deal with these pandemics much easier without the need for lockdowns if we made cigarettes and alcohol illegal.

I'll ****ing end you.

[BleedingRed]

Lmao this isnt going to go on for month, I'm sure the virus will but there i ZERO PERCENT chance people can work from home and businesses can stay closed for months.

So might as well stop delaying the inevitable

[O.city]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

Or how about instead people just take personal responsibility for their health?

Is that too much to ask?

So telling the dude with leukemia he can’t leave his house for the next however long is just tough luck?

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by O.city

So telling the dude with leukemia he can’t leave his house for the next however long is just tough luck?

Telling the small business owner hes going to lose everything... Ahh tough luck

[O.city]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Telling the small business owner hes going to lose everything... Ahh tough luck

I’m cool with opening it back up

Just want to make sure we establish some rules here. If we’re willing to sacrifice some people I’d just like to know who so I can get out ahead of it

[Donger]

(CNN)An influential model tracking the coronavirus pandemic in the United States now predicts that fewer people will die and fewer hospital beds will be needed compared to its estimates from last week.

As of Monday, the model predicted the virus will kill 81,766 people in the United States over the next four months, with just under 141,000 hospital beds being needed. That's about 12,000 fewer deaths -- and 121,000 fewer hospital beds -- than the model estimated on Thursday.

A "massive infusion of new data" led to the adjustments, according to the model's maker, Dr. Christopher Murray, who serves as director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine.

[Donger]

But the newest version of the model underscores just how important social distancing continues to be: It assumes that those measures -- such as closing schools and businesses -- will continue until August, and it still predicts tens of thousands of deaths.

While the analysis has been repeatedly cited by Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House's coronavirus response coordinator, the administration's current guidelines only recommend social distancing through April 30.

[Ninerfan11]

Originally Posted by Donger

(CNN)An influential model tracking the coronavirus pandemic in the United States now predicts that fewer people will die and fewer hospital beds will be needed compared to its estimates from last week.

As of Monday, the model predicted the virus will kill 81,766 people in the United States over the next four months, with just under 141,000 hospital beds being needed. That's about 12,000 fewer deaths -- and 121,000 fewer hospital beds -- than the model estimated on Thursday.

A "massive infusion of new data" led to the adjustments, according to the model's maker, Dr. Christopher Murray, who serves as director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine.

lol, fear mongering idiots

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by O.city

I’m cool with opening it back up

Just want to make sure we establish some rules here. If we’re willing to sacrifice some people I’d just like to know who so I can get out ahead of it

if your retired stay the **** home,

Otherwise go outside at your own risk, and if you get it go to China and spit on everything