***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Supposedly they started the HCQ type treatments early but again, supposedly

We did, but probably has more to do with space. At least from a case perspective. Our death numbers per a case or per a million is among the lowest in the nation too. So that might have more to do with HCQ.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Nah Dallas was one of few Cities to take people after they closed borders from Europe etc.

And Houston has a huge Asian population.

The real reason probably has more to do with how spaced out we are. I drive 38 miles one way to get to office that is on the very north side of down town. And I live in Houston on North side. Add in the fact we have some of the best medical facilities in the world, and a SHIT LOAD of doctors, we were just better positioned than those on NE.

Ok so I was wrong lol

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Yeah, no.....

Pete,

Sundays have lagged, as indicated by death rates.

3/29 had a death rate 150 less than the day before or after
4/5 had a death rate less than the day before or after


4/12 had a death rate less than 4/11. Hopefully, 4/13 is less, but the trend of the information is that reporting seems to lag on those days, unless for some reason people are just less likely to die on a Sunday.

Overall, the point is not to put too much info on a single data point. Wait for the trend to establish itself.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Pete,

Sundays have lagged, as indicated by death rates.

3/29 had a death rate 150 less than the day before or after
4/5 had a death rate less than the day before or after


4/12 had a death rate less than 4/11. Hopefully, 4/13 is less, but the trend of the information is that reporting seems to lag on those days, unless for some reason people are just less likely to die on a Sunday.

Overall, the point is not to put too much info on a single data point. Wait for the trend to establish itself.

The posts can speak for themselves as well as the data. No one said anything about a trend.

[BigRedChief]

This sucks. 3.7 million gallons of milk being thrown out every day. Surely we can figure out a way for the people that are out of work to get this food? Volunteers to harvest it, trucks to get it to locations where it’s needed?
—————————————————————————————————

Dumped Milk, Smashed Eggs, Plowed Vegetables: Food Waste of the Pandemic

With restaurants, hotels and schools closed, many of the nation’s largest farms are destroying millions of pounds of fresh goods that they can no longer sell.

In Wisconsin and Ohio, farmers are dumping thousands of gallons of fresh milk into lagoons and manure pits. An Idaho farmer has dug huge ditches to bury 1 million pounds of onions. And in South Florida, a region that supplies much of the Eastern half of the United States with produce, tractors are crisscrossing bean and cabbage fields, plowing perfectly ripe vegetables back into the soil.

After weeks of concern about shortages in grocery stores and mad scrambles to find the last box of pasta or toilet paper roll, many of the nation’s largest farms are struggling with another ghastly effect of the pandemic. They are being forced to destroy tens of millions of pounds of fresh food that they can no longer sell.

The closing of restaurants, hotels and schools has left some farmers with no buyers for more than half their crops. And even as retailers see spikes in food sales to Americans who are now eating nearly every meal at home, the increases are not enough to absorb all of the perishable food that was planted weeks ago and intended for schools and businesses.

The amount of waste is staggering. The nation’s largest dairy cooperative, Dairy Farmers of America, estimates that farmers are dumping as many as 3.7 million gallons of milk each day. A single chicken processor is smashing 750,000 unhatched eggs every week.

Many farmers say they have donated part of the surplus to food banks and Meals on Wheels programs, which have been overwhelmed with demand. But there is only so much perishable food that charities with limited numbers of refrigerators and volunteers can absorb.

And the costs of harvesting, processing and then transporting produce and milk to food banks or other areas of need would put further financial strain on farms that have seen half their paying customers disappear. Exporting much of the excess food is not feasible either, farmers say, because many international customers are also struggling through the pandemic and recent currency fluctuations make exports unprofitable.

“It’s heartbreaking,” said Paul Allen, co-owner of R.C. Hatton, who has had to destroy millions of pounds of beans and cabbage at his farms in South Florida and Georgia.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

This sucks. 3.7 million gallons of milk being thrown out every day. Surely we can figure out a way for the people that are out of work to get this food? Volunteers to harvest it, trucks to get it to locations where it’s needed?

Dumped Milk, Smashed Eggs, Plowed Vegetables: Food Waste of the Pandemic
With restaurants, hotels and schools closed, many of the nation’s largest farms are destroying millions of pounds of fresh goods that they can no longer sell.

Share on FacebookPost on TwitterMail
By David Yaffe-Bellany and Michael Corkery
April 11, 2020
In Wisconsin and Ohio, farmers are dumping thousands of gallons of fresh milk into lagoons and manure pits. An Idaho farmer has dug huge ditches to bury 1 million pounds of onions. And in South Florida, a region that supplies much of the Eastern half of the United States with produce, tractors are crisscrossing bean and cabbage fields, plowing perfectly ripe vegetables back into the soil.

After weeks of concern about shortages in grocery stores and mad scrambles to find the last box of pasta or toilet paper roll, many of the nation’s largest farms are struggling with another ghastly effect of the pandemic. They are being forced to destroy tens of millions of pounds of fresh food that they can no longer sell.

The closing of restaurants, hotels and schools has left some farmers with no buyers for more than half their crops. And even as retailers see spikes in food sales to Americans who are now eating nearly every meal at home, the increases are not enough to absorb all of the perishable food that was planted weeks ago and intended for schools and businesses.

The amount of waste is staggering. The nation’s largest dairy cooperative, Dairy Farmers of America, estimates that farmers are dumping as many as 3.7 million gallons of milk each day. A single chicken processor is smashing 750,000 unhatched eggs every week.

Many farmers say they have donated part of the surplus to food banks and Meals on Wheels programs, which have been overwhelmed with demand. But there is only so much perishable food that charities with limited numbers of refrigerators and volunteers can absorb.

And the costs of harvesting, processing and then transporting produce and milk to food banks or other areas of need would put further financial strain on farms that have seen half their paying customers disappear. Exporting much of the excess food is not feasible either, farmers say, because many international customers are also struggling through the pandemic and recent currency fluctuations make exports unprofitable.

“It’s heartbreaking,” said Paul Allen, co-owner of R.C. Hatton, who has had to destroy millions of pounds of beans and cabbage at his farms in South Florida and Georgia.

Again?

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Pete,

Sundays have lagged, as indicated by death rates.

3/29 had a death rate 150 less than the day before or after
4/5 had a death rate less than the day before or after


4/12 had a death rate less than 4/11. Hopefully, 4/13 is less, but the trend of the information is that reporting seems to lag on those days, unless for some reason people are just less likely to die on a Sunday.

Overall, the point is not to put too much info on a single data point. Wait for the trend to establish itself.

It’s Groundhog Day.

Pete’s has this conversation before. Let’s hope he’s right this time.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Pete,

Sundays have lagged, as indicated by death rates.

3/29 had a death rate 150 less than the day before or after
4/5 had a death rate less than the day before or after


4/12 had a death rate less than 4/11. Hopefully, 4/13 is less, but the trend of the information is that reporting seems to lag on those days, unless for some reason people are just less likely to die on a Sunday.

Overall, the point is not to put too much info on a single data point. Wait for the trend to establish itself.

Unless I'm wrong, and I'm never wrong, new cases are the thing that should be focused on as it relates to seeing the glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel. It would be fantastic if we see day-over-day new case growth trending downward for a week or so, even with a couple of outliers. Looking at Italy, we are at the same duration as they were when their trend began.

Fingers crossed.

[MahiMike]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Damn

Reported US coronavirus deaths via @CNN:

4 weeks ago: 49 deaths
3 weeks ago: 249 deaths
2 weeks ago: 1,588 deaths
1 week ago: 7,152 deaths
Right now: 18,693 deaths

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) April 11, 2020

and 90% aren't "really" for the virus...

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Donger

Unless I'm wrong, and I'm never wrong, new cases are the thing that should be focused on as it relates to seeing the glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel. It would be fantastic if we see day-over-day new case growth trending downward for a week or so, even with a couple of outliers. Looking at Italy, we are at the same duration as they were when their trend began.

Fingers crossed.

why new cases since we all know there is a huge backlog?

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Donger

Unless I'm wrong, and I'm never wrong, new cases are the thing that should be focused on as it relates to seeing the glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel. It would be fantastic if we see day-over-day new case growth trending downward for a week or so, even with a couple of outliers. Looking at Italy, we are at the same duration as they were when their trend began.

Fingers crossed.

If anything you are consistent

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

why new cases since we all know there is a huge backlog?

And there’s a ton of people not getting tested...

[Donger]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

why new cases since we all know there is a huge backlog?

Because it's a confirmed number. Any decline trend of that number is a good thing.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by MahiMike

and 90% aren't "really" for the virus...

so what are they magically dying from?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Donger

Unless I'm wrong, and I'm never wrong, new cases are the thing that should be focused on as it relates to seeing the glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel. It would be fantastic if we see day-over-day new case growth trending downward for a week or so, even with a couple of outliers. Looking at Italy, we are at the same duration as they were when their trend began.

Fingers crossed.

Given that we are unsure of the asymptomatic number and absolute infectiousness of the virus, the better indicators are hospitalizations and death rates. We obviously *want* the new cases to go down, but new case discovery is also a function of testing capacity, where as hospitalization is a function of the breadth of illness and death rates are a function of strain on the hospital system.

If you test 2,000 people and 1800 of them are positive that's lower new case growth than testing 25,000 people with 3,000 positive, but one is a much worse indicator than another.