***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[mdchiefsfan]

Look at MD. The number of deaths chart is seriously out of whack. 5 days until the peak of deaths (25 deaths anticipated), which is a lower number of deaths than what occurred (and is displayed) for April 11th at 35 deaths.

Wouldn’t the peak be on the 11th then?

[KCUnited]

[Titty Meat]

KCFD lost an emt to covid

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by TLO

I thought for a while you could go back and look at past projections, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Unless I'm not able to find it on my phone for whatever reason.

Anyway, we're at +1,380 deaths today with a good portion of states reprin reporting.

They provide a spreadsheet you can download


http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads

[Titty Meat]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/h....co/FjToqbMXu6

I know we had a pretty big debate in this debate over this drug.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/h....co/FjToqbMXu6

I know we had a pretty big debate in this debate over this drug.

Bummer. That's why clinical trials exist, though.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

They provide a spreadsheet you can download


http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads

Not exactly easy to work with, but that's something at least.

So as a random point of comparison, the 4/1/20 version of the model predicted that Colorado would need roughly 8k hospital beds and 1,300 ICU beds today and that we'd see 72 deaths. The current model says 388/97/13.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/h....co/FjToqbMXu6

I know we had a pretty big debate in this debate over this drug.

I figured. Fauci didnt seem to excited about it.

[eDave]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

I figured. Fauci didnt seem to excited about it.

Yea, I haven't heard much about that "miracal" drug for a few days, which seems like months.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by eDave

Yea, I haven't heard much about that "miracal" drug for a few days, which seems like months.

Yeah that's for movies or for guys like Pete and Marcellus to believe. It's going to take time for vaccine to come, unfortunately

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/h....co/FjToqbMXu6

I know we had a pretty big debate in this debate over this drug.

Woah woah woah.... If anecdotal positive instances don't count, a study of 81 Brazilian people who were being given higher than recommend doses had to be called off shouldn't count either.

[TLO]

And no, I don't think it's a miracle drug, a cure, or anything else. This is why clinical trials are important.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by TLO

Woah woah woah.... If anecdotal positive instances don't count, a study of 81 Brazilian people who were being given higher than recommend doses had to be called off shouldn't count either.

Eh, I agree to some extent, but the difference is where the burden of proof lies.

"This treatment cures Coronavirus" requires a large sample because a vast majority of people don't die from it anyway.

"This treatment causes heart disease" doesn't require a large sample because they wouldn't otherwise have expected more than a tiny portion of people to independently develop an irregular heartbeat during the study.

But yes, a randomized trial would have been dramatically better, and this isn't the final word on whether it's a viable treatment.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/h....co/FjToqbMXu6

I know we had a pretty big debate in this debate over this drug.

Originally Posted by eDave

Yea, I haven't heard much about that "miracal" drug for a few days, which seems like months.

Originally Posted by TLO

Woah woah woah.... If anecdotal positive instances don't count, a study of 81 Brazilian people who were being given higher than recommend doses had to be called off shouldn't count either.

And TLO nails it!

A research trial of coronavirus patients in Brazil ended after patients taking a higher dose of chloroquine, one of the drugs President Trump has promoted, developed irregular heart rates......

Several clinical trials for chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are testing low doses for shorter periods of time in coronavirus patients. But the Health Commission of Guangdong Province in China had initially recommended those sick with the virus be treated with 500 milligrams of chloroquine twice daily for 10 days.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by petegz28

And TLO nails it!

I have 10 people who are sick with a common cold. I give them a drug. They all live. How confident are you that it was my drug that kept them alive?

I have 10 people who are sick with a common cold. I give them a drug. Two of them die. How confident are you that it was my drug that killed them?

The probabilities are stretched compared to COVID to make the point, but that's what we're talking about here.