***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Bwana]

Originally Posted by DaFace

They work, just not in the way people think. They're pretty good at keeping you from getting other people sick. They're not very good at keeping you from getting sick.

Yeah I've got a 3M industrial mask with some P100 Particulate 2097 Filters that will, but it's a real pain in the ass to wear.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

I don't know what is in their secret sauce. I know that modeling for complex stuff like this is incredibly hard. I also know, and have said it in here before, that you always lose in public health--if you make dour predictions you're an alarmist. If people heed the predictions and death rates are lower you caused a panic for nothing. If people die in large numbers you get roasted for not acting sooner.

So here is my prediction for the model tomorrow: people will bitch about it.

I predict you will be 100% correct.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Bwana

Yeah I've got a 3M industrial mask with some P100 Particulate 2097 Filters that will, but it's a real pain in the ass to wear.

I saw a woman wearing one when I got my last infusion. I admired her dedication.

[Dunit35]

Somebody brought us Blue shop towel masks with rubber bands to put around our ears at the PD.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

I don't know what is in their secret sauce. I know that modeling for complex stuff like this is incredibly hard. I also know, and have said it in here before, that you always lose in public health--if you make dour predictions you're an alarmist. If people heed the predictions and death rates are lower you caused a panic for nothing. If people die in large numbers you get roasted for not acting sooner.

So here is my prediction for the model tomorrow: people will bitch about it.

Absolutely.

And I'll be the first one bitching.

[lewdog]

I come to this thread every night for 2 reason.

To see the information Hamas is posting and for Pete to provide the lulz.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

You don't reopen the country right now as the rate of growth is slowing, otherwise there was no point to close it down in the first place. You have to start coming down the other side of the peak first.

Realistically, we probably need to wait another six weeks, but I'm sure that a number of people won't wait beyond May 1 and will likely undo much of the progress that has been made.

I’ll be interested to see the mlb serology studies and see if we can gain any info from that. Did you see the Scottish study I posted? I’ll see if I can find it again


Edit: https://figshare.com/articles/Serolo...020/12116778/2

[NewChief]

We have been wearing "masks" when at stores and such for a couple of weeks now
Nothing fancy: I wear a buff usually. My wife wears a bandana. We bought some nicer masks with filter pockets from a local seamstress who needs work as well but haven't started using those.

Main advantage of mask for me: it keeps me from touching my face and biting my nails (awful habit). That's, supposedly, as much a reason for the effectiveness of masks as anything: social/psychological engineering. They change the way you behave and think when in public.

So I wear it out. I take it off when I get home and immediately wash my hands to "decontaminate". Then I don't worry about my behavior (biting nails or touching face) again until I go out again wearing the mask. It helps as a mental cue for me to be more aware about interactions outside the house.

Oh: and lest you think we are nuts. We are also going on daily hikes and bike rides and pretty much enjoying more time with the family. It's just.. different.

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Find someone who can sew you a cloth mask. They aren't as effective as an N95, but they do provide protection.

Shit, trying to find someone who can sew these days is nearly as hard as finding the masks.

I've resorted to just using a bandana for the dust issues, wouldn't that be pretty much the same as a cloth mask?

[Bwana]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

I saw a woman wearing one when I got my last infusion. I admired her dedication.

Yeah, I mean they will do the trick, but they are heavy and uncomfortable.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Bugeater

Shit, trying to find someone who can sew these days is nearly as hard as finding the masks.

I've resorted to just using a bandana for the dust issues, wouldn't that be pretty much the same as a cloth mask?

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1720657475514

Tutorial on masks

[TLO]

FWIW

Stanford professor claims coronavirus death rate 'likely orders of magnitude lower' than first thought

Stanford University professor of medicine Dr. Jay Bhattacharya told "Tucker Carlson Tonight" Tuesday that he believes the actual death rate from the coronavirus pandemic is "likely orders of magnitude lower than the initial estimates."

"Per case, I don't think it's as deadly as people thought," Bhattacharya told host Tucker Carlson. " ... The World Health Organization put an estimate out that was, I think, initially 3.4 percent. It's very unlikely it is anywhere near that. It's it's much likely, much closer to the death rate that you see from the flu per case.

"The problem, of course, is that we don't have a vaccine," Bhattacharya added. "So in that sense, it's more deadly and more widespread than the flu, and it overwhelms hospital systems, the ways the flu doesn't."

The professor predicted that forthcoming research would give scientstists and health officials a "much more accurate understanding of how widespread this is."

"It really seems like there's many, many cases of the virus that we haven't identified with the testing regimens that we've got around the world," he said. "Many orders of magnitude more people have been infected with it, I think. I think that we realize that ... means that ... the death rate is actually lower than people realize, also by orders of magnitude."

Bhattacharya told Carlson he was less afraid of the virus than when he began his research, adding that he hoped the improved numbers would help Americans deal with their fear of the virus.

"I'm hoping to get numbers in place," Bhattacharya said. "We'll be able to really sort of quell the fear that's out there."

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by TLO

FWIW

Stanford professor claims coronavirus death rate 'likely orders of magnitude lower' than first thought

I think most us realize that CFR wasn’t going to be as high as it was predicted but even 0.4 that is still 4 x as deadly and I think the hospitalization rate is 20% compared to flu 2% ( in the article I read)

[Kidd Lex]

Originally Posted by Monticore

I think most us realize that CFR wasn’t going to be as high as it was predicted but even 0.4 that is still 4 x as deadly and I think the hospitalization rate is 20% compared to flu 2% ( in the article I read)

The hospital rate would be an order of magnitude lower as well.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by TLO

FWIW

Stanford professor claims coronavirus death rate 'likely orders of magnitude lower' than first thought

Yeah we lucked out big time w low death rate of this virus. Ebola Zaire is an example of just how bad viruses deathrate can get.