***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[tk13]

Originally Posted by petegz28

We are over counting deaths. Sorry but I just think we are. I mean if people even think the person has covid they are listing covid as the cause. Granted there are still a lot of people dying even so.

You're asking questions for the answers you want to get. It's just as likely we're undercounting them and there are probably flu and pneumonia deaths out there we're missing.

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by DaFace

My fear is that it's somewhere in the middle. If it spreads that fast, that means you need a REALLY high percentage of people to get it to reach herd immunity (i.e., 80-90% or higher). Even if we already have 20% of the population impacted (which seems like it's on the high side, but maybe), that means we still have 4-5x as many people who will die.

But I guess on the good side, social distancing won't really have much of a point if it's that high, so life will kind of go back to normal relatively quickly (aside from the death count).

"Closer" being a relative term. We thought we were nowhere near it, so yeah it's not over with by any means, but we could be several steps ahead of "nowhere near it". Again....we're all guessing at this point.



We also very well could be grasping at straws in our desperation for good news.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by tk13

We've had this argument. I think the Sweden argument is terrible because one, they are still social distancing. Two, they have way, way more cases than their neighbors. If they do end up having way more cases and deaths and Norway and Finland it's going to look horrible.

Thirdly, they are an entirely different society. Right or wrong, it's easy for people there to support this strategy because they don't have to worry about medical billing.

Fair points all around.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by tk13

Why wouldn't there be? Every nursing home, prison and meat plant this thing gets into shuts the whole place down and there are hundreds of cases. Imagine if people were working normally. We'd have millions of cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths. We already have 50K dead with most of our workplaces and entertainment options shut down and people unable to congregate in large numbers.

Deaths are lagging so the deaths were seeing right now are basically from what, right before we starting really locking down?

I don’t know about you guys, but going out and about a little bit randomly I don’t necessarily see people adhering to what we’re supposed to

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by TLO

Unless we see a drastic drop off in deaths within the next 2 week's, 100k is not out of the question. Plus we'll still have to see if deaths spike back up once we are "open for business" again.

There's so much unknown..

Yep, I am pretty confidant we will get close to 100k now but maybe we will get lucky. The original IHME model had us around 80k deaths, which now looking back is probably the correct projection

Originally Posted by O.city

You think there’d me that many deaths already?

without social distancing? Absolutely. We are social distancing now and have 52k, just imagine if we weren't. All the hospitals would be over run and every major city would be NY or Lombardy

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by tk13

We've had this argument. I think the Sweden argument is terrible because one, they are still social distancing. Two, they have way, way more cases than their neighbors. If they do end up having way more cases and deaths and Norway and Finland it's going to look horrible.

Thirdly, they are an entirely different society. Right or wrong, it's easy for people there to support this strategy because they don't have to worry about medical billing.

It's one of those that we likely won't really know until we're looking back. The theory is that they WILL reach herd immunity faster than everyone else and be done with it. Because of that, their current numbers of deaths aren't necessarily unexpected. It's mainly a matter of when they get it under control compared to everyone else.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

My fear is that it's somewhere in the middle. If it spreads that fast, that means you need a REALLY high percentage of people to get it to reach herd immunity (i.e., 80-90% or higher). Even if we already have 20% of the population impacted (which seems like it's on the high side, but maybe), that means we still have 4-5x as many people who will die.

But I guess on the good side, social distancing won't really have much of a point if it's that high, so life will kind of go back to normal relatively quickly (aside from the death count).

I don’t know about that super high R0. I think it seems like it spreads crazy because we don’t know who the hell has is or who to isolate

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by tk13

You're asking questions for the answers you want to get. It's just as likely we're undercounting them and there are probably flu and pneumonia deaths out there we're missing.

Yeah, no.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

It's one of those that we likely won't really know until we're looking back. The theory is that they WILL reach herd immunity faster than everyone else and be done with it. Because of that, their current numbers of deaths aren't necessarily unexpected. It's mainly a matter of when they get it under control compared to everyone else.

My theory on it is that they will have a higher peak now, but they’ll be done faster and can get back to life or some semblance of it

Where as these other places that locked down so hard are gonna either have a second spike and have to do this again or have a drawn out lock down. That’s gonna cause a whole host of other issues and if they end up having to lock down again, I dunno that people will handle it

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by petegz28

We are over counting deaths. Sorry but I just think we are. I mean if people even think the person has covid they are listing covid as the cause. Granted there are still a lot of people dying even so.

I bet there was deaths early in the year that were Covid so it probably evens out if they were over counting which I don't think they are.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

My theory on it is that they will have a higher peak now, but they’ll be done faster and can get back to life or some semblance of it

Where as these other places that locked down so hard are gonna either have a second spike and have to do this again or have a drawn out lock down. That’s gonna cause a whole host of other issues and if they end up having to lock down again, I dunno that people will handle it

Yep

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I bet there was deaths early in the year that were Covid so it probably evens out if they were over counting which I don't think they are.

Yeah but now there is a financial incentive to label deaths as covid. Sad, probably a discussion not for this thread but still the truth.

[lewdog]

I’m likely getting tested on Monday.

Swabbing my brain I guess.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by lewdog

I’m likely getting tested on Monday.

Swabbing my brain I guess.

Well it will be a quick test so that's a good thing...

[O.city]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I bet there was deaths early in the year that were Covid so it probably evens out if they were over counting which I don't think they are.

If that’s the case though (I think it probably is) and it was spreading then, why wasn’t any of our hospitals over run?

I think this is another thing we may have undersold a bit when we first started with all this. Our hospitals and medical system is here legitimately better than anywhere in the world