***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[banyon]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

'

Again from the study:



Those under 70 and no underlying health conditions would be several folds lower... get it.

Serious question, you really think we have only had 4.4 million infected in the US right now?

Death by age for NYC and Italy...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...new-york-city/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...gion-in-italy/

Until you stop, read, and think about my post, this isn't going to work.

Again, for the 3rd TIME:

Originally Posted by banyon

As of April 14 (because the CDC data lags) deaths under 65 were 6,501, the case count for under 65 as of April 14 was 621,953

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

About 29% of COVID cases are over 65, so I adjusted the worldometer number by that. so 621,953x.29= 441,587

That gives us current CFR of .026% for flu under 65 y/o in 17-18' and current CFR of 1.47% for COVID 19 under 65 to date.

Also:

On the second point Of course it adds up we’ve had severe lockdown measures to reduce the r0 below its natural infectivity. As I explained the first time (you apparently didn’t read it closely) I used the figure 4.4 million as of April 14. It is two weeks old. It would be higher today

Now what I used were the official numbers from CDC. The adjustments I made were explained 3 times.

If your point is "well the official number is off" then You tell me what denominator you want to use. BUT, you should also adjust the numerator, as we know the deaths are an undercount as well by up to 20-30%, plus they are lagged by two weeks.

Again, YOU made this claim that FLU deaths were higher for under 65 y/o's than COVID19. I am attempting to do the math on your claim for you. You haven't provided anything other than some generic hand waving at some links that you didn't actually run the numerical comparison on.

The links you provide here are just again generic hand waving. They DO NOT include flu deaths by age group. They are also expressed as per 100k rather than as a percentage.

But BASED on your own link you just provided, the deaths would be 128.84 (45-64 y/o) plus 14.3 (18-44) plus 0.0 (0-17)= 143.14 per 300k (the three groups added together). So divide 143.14/300000= .047%

.047 percent there is the mortality rate for the ENTIRE population of NY City of under 65 year olds, whether they are infected or not. And even that number is DOUBLE the flu number.

Let's face it, your idea that the flu is more deadly for under 65 was not well thought out. It's ok. Everyone makes mistakes.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Yes that made me laugh when I read it....

that post is CRINGE and if you laughed at it.........

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Brad doesn't want people to starve due to unemployment and foot shortages because you're afraid.

A depression will lead to poverty. Poverty will lead to crime, disease, and death.

A depression (possibly world depression) is more deadly than covid...

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Donger

I think more than 58.220 Americans were killed in Vietnam.

I get the joke, but more than that, does the usage of the "." instead of "," there imply that that was a non-American who wrote that? Seems super strange.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I get the joke, but more than that, does the usage of the "." instead of "," there imply that that was a non-American who wrote that? Seems super strange.

Seems like you nailed it.

[banyon]

Originally Posted by Rausch

Brad doesn't want people to starve due to unemployment and foot shortages because you're afraid.

A depression will lead to poverty. Poverty will lead to crime, disease, and death.

A depression (possibly world depression) is more deadly than covid...

There is also the thought that if we reopen too quickly, or hastily without enough safeguards, that we will see a new spike and that will force everyone even further into their shells and delay a productive reopening even longer.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I get the joke, but more than that, does the usage of the "." instead of "," there imply that that was a non-American who wrote that? Seems super strange.

No, I think it's just a mistake.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by banyon

There is also the thought that if we reopen too quickly, or hastily without enough safeguards, that we will see a new spike and that will force everyone even further into their shells and delay a productive reopening even longer.

Exactly there needs to be a middle ground and I think that's what our politicians are striving for.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

Exactly there needs to be a middle ground and I think that's what our politicians are striving for.

you would be wrong considering they are not coming back this week for anything.

[limested]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

Exactly there needs to be a middle ground and I think that's what some of our politicians are striving for.

Fixed post.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I get the joke, but more than that, does the usage of the "." instead of "," there imply that that was a non-American who wrote that? Seems super strange.

Or an American douche who studied abroad for a semester and now inserts little bits of another culture into things they say because they're super hip and obnoxious like that.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

Michigan for one, probably the strictest. I don't think beaches are open in Southern Florida, NJ and other places. Washington State had closed their hiking trails.

beaches arent putting a boat in a lake by yourself.


which states wont let you boat by yourself?

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by banyon

There is also the thought that if we reopen too quickly, or hastily without enough safeguards, that we will see a new spike and that will force everyone even further into their shells and delay a productive reopening even longer.

If we reopen it's possible it can spread, fill hospitals, and ruin the economy.

If we don't open it will ruin the economy.

If we reopen a percentage of people will get it and will die. If we stay closed a much lower percentage will get it and will die.

In some ways the choice is to pull off the bandage quickly and eat the pain or pull it slowly and handle one plucked hair at a much longer time. This virus will spread throughout the public. Over time we'll all be exposed. There's no avoiding that.

I wonder if we can take a mixed approach. Keep population dense places more locked down and more rural and spread out populations more open.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

beaches arent putting a boat in a lake by yourself.


which states wont let you boat by yourself?

and michigan wouldnt let you on a powered boat (so you didnt have to buy gas im assuming) but you could canoe or kayak.


you're being a little disingenuous here

[jerryaldini]

More good news on remdisivir government study. Helping markets today. The Chinese study was ended early and underpowered.

Regarding deaths and despair from economy versus virus, nobody knows. Harder to estimate than the virus itself. Why in my opinion a balanced, measured approach makes more sense (e.g. Ohio) than what GA is doing, for example

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/29/...-to-treatment/