***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Again just playing Devil’s advocate ....how many people that are “not worth” losing are worth shutting everything down? No one wants to lose anyone for any reason. It’s really an argument of the few vs. the many. I hate to say it but that is just how life is unfortunately and it sucks but it is what it is.

It is a fair question and I would answer it by saying we should reopen when cases, deaths and hospitalization to this virus is minimal and that obviously varies state by state.

I just keeping coming back to the point Hamas made the other day and that our parents and grandparents sacrificed for years during WWII yet we somehow can't make the necessary sacrifices for a couple of months.

[vonBobo]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I am not either. Is it worth it to anybody to kill your parents or grandparents because you want to go back to "normal." Jobs will come back, being dead is forever.

Right! When people devalue the death toll they are expecting it to be someone else. But how many of those same people are willing to intentionally expose themselves and their families to help the herd immunity cause?

[KCUnited]

Feel like there's neighborhoods in NYC that are basically strip mall nursing homes. Attached homes overcrowded with several generations of families residing.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

It is a fair question and I would answer it by saying we should reopen when cases, deaths and hospitalization to this virus is minimal and that obviously varies state by state.

I just keeping coming back to the point Hamas made the other day and that our parents and grandparents sacrificed for years during WWII yet we somehow can't make the necessary sacrifices for a couple of months.

The guidelines for reopening make sense. 14 day trajectory of decline in new cases. Some states that are re-opening are close to that, or have achieved it.

I get that people are antsy, but re-opening while new cases are still climbing isn't logical.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Again just playing Devil’s advocate ....how many people that are “not worth” losing are worth shutting everything down? No one wants to lose anyone for any reason. It’s really an argument of the few vs. the many. I hate to say it but that is just how life is unfortunately and it sucks but it is what it is.

Let’s use your parents and family for the herd immunity theory. Bring them to my house and I’ll infect them.

Only the strong survive!!!!

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Donger

The guidelines for reopening make sense. 14 day trajectory of decline in new cases. Some states that are re-opening are close to that, or have achieved it.

I get that people are antsy, but re-opening while new cases are still climbing isn't logical.

I don't think any state has met the 14-day decline

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by vonBobo

Right! When people devalue the death toll they are expecting it to be someone else. But how many of those same people are willing to intentionally expose themselves and their families to help the herd immunity cause?

yep and the answer is None.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I am not either. Is it worth it to anybody to kill your parents or grandparents because you want to go back to "normal." Jobs will come back, being dead is forever.

Originally Posted by vonBobo

Right! When people devalue the death toll they are expecting it to be someone else. But how many of those same people are willing to intentionally expose themselves and their families to help the herd immunity cause?

Here is the thing though, the SIP orders and shutting things down wasnt supposed to keep people from contracting the virus, but to make sure hospitals didn't become over crowded and that isn't happening. In the beginning it was pretty much a given that a vast majority of the US would eventually get it. Our healthcare system handled it pretty well at first and I don't think any hospitals were completely filled to the max, so if everyone is going to eventually come down with this, then why keep the SIP orders in effect?

I think the big thing that frightened the masses is everyone saw what was happening in Italy and hearing all these reports of hospitals having to turn away people that were almost dead because the hospitals were completwly filled past capacity and that scared people. Our healthcare system seems to be able to handle it better than people expected.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Donger

I wonder how many of these asymptomatic positives end up becoming symptomatic.

They say that incubation is 2 to 14 days (last I checked) with median of ~5. So, would a person show positive for COVD-19 on, say, day 3?

I've been asking myself this same question in regards to the Triumph situation. But from my understanding a lot of these people are already going on day 7 or 8 of exposure before being tested. I imagine some of them will eventually end up showing symptoms, but I'd like to know how many.

From what I can piece together through news reports is about 5% were symptomatic out of the 2800 group. 95% asymptomatic. Hopefully they release actual numbers at some point.

(Edit: 4.6% were symptomatic)

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Let’s use your parents and family for the herd immunity theory. Bring them to my house and I’ll infect them.

Only the strong survive!!!!

Yeah cause that’s what I said...whatever lew

[O.city]

You’ve gotta define symptoms. It’s looking like for a portion of those presymptimatic, that could be an itchy throat and a runny nose. You probably wouldn’t even recognize those as symptoms

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

Here is the thing though, the SIP orders and shutting things down wasnt supposed to keep people from contracting the virus, but to make sure hospitals didn't become over crowded and that isn't happening. In the beginning it was pretty much a given that a vast majority of the US would eventually get it. Our healthcare system handled it pretty well at first and I don't think any hospitals were completely filled to the max, so if everyone is going to eventually come down with this, then why keep the SIP orders in effect?

I think the big thing that frightened the masses is everyone saw what was happening in Italy and hearing all these reports of hospitals having to turn away people that were almost dead because the hospitals were completwly filled past capacity and that scared people. Our healthcare system seems to be able to handle it better than people expected.

Because you hate people and stuff.....

Actually I agree in large part with your post

[O.city]

Human challenge trials is what I was thinking of earlier. It seems we’re at a point they’re worth considering once you get a vaccine to say stage 2.

Give them the vaccine, introduce the virus and see what happens.

Gonna have to compensate them heavily

[Donger]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I don't think any state has met the 14-day decline

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020...ses/index.html

Good data at the bottom. Montana clearly has, from a very quick perusal.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by O.city

You’ve gotta define symptoms. It’s looking like for a portion of those presymptimatic, that could be an itchy throat and a runny nose. You probably wouldn’t even recognize those as symptoms

The complete disappearance of your senses of smell and taste should be recognizable.