***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I am sorry I am going to go by what he said and not what you think you know.

NEW YORK CORONAVIRUS HOSPITALIZATIONS LOWEST SINCE MARCH AFTER 19 STRAIGHT DAYS OF DECLINE
https://www.newsweek.com/new-york-co...ecline-1501607

The 3 day rolling average of NEW hospitalizations was 897.

897 people average a day got hospitalized.

[R Clark]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

This is true but the statement implies 70k deaths over the course of all the infections since they started, which would not be true if it’s been here since January.

It’s a fact that it’s been here since at least early January ? I thought I read or heard that someone here in Kansas had been sick in early Jan and dr suspected covid and had them come back in and tested them recently and they tested out that they’d had it?

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Well that's just it though. Places like SK, Iceland, etc. who have populations and land mass smaller that a couple of our states put together at best are a lot easier to control, I agree.

I just don't think the virus is ever going to go away. What virus has?

No, it won't just go away. But it's FAR easier to control when you push it down to a minimum before you start easing things up.

And as for population density, it's not like that's the only driver. We talk about NYC subways, but Seoul, SK is far more dense than NYC, and they've done very well.

[Megatron96]

Certain states probably never should've locked down at all, based onthe information we have now. But what's done is done. Many states, particularly in the west/southwest should be opening back up as soon as practical.

For example, here in AZ we're seeing the curve pretty much flattened, the number of people admitted to hospitals has tailed off, the death rate has nearly zeroed out. In the four months since the virus has been tracked here in AZ, we're still under 400, and Maricopa county, the largest AZ county, is still under 200, at 168, up 7 from yesterday. Thankfully our governor isn't a complete tard, and we're opening things back up completely by the 15th, with some temporary guidelines of course.

Most of the rest of the West/Southwest/Northwest (with a couple exceptions) should be planning on the same for the sake of their economies and people.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

The 3 day rolling average of NEW hospitalizations was 897.

897 people average a day got hospitalized.

Everyone else is wrong, I get it

[Mecca]

https://www.newsweek.com/54-percent-...-shows-1501809

54 PERCENT OF AMERICANS WANT TO WORK REMOTE REGULARLY AFTER CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC ENDS, NEW POLL SHOWS

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Mecca

https://www.newsweek.com/54-percent-...-shows-1501809

54 PERCENT OF AMERICANS WANT TO WORK REMOTE REGULARLY AFTER CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC ENDS, NEW POLL SHOWS

Gee, that's a shocker Actually it is. I figured it would be higher.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by DaFace

No, it won't just go away. But it's FAR easier to control when you push it down to a minimum before you start easing things up.

And as for population density, it's not like that's the only driver. We talk about NYC subways, but Seoul, SK is far more dense than NYC, and they've done very well.

If the R0 falls below 1, it will "die" out.

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

I can't wrap my head around how anything in a timeline changes the fact almost 70k died in 2 months.


The information on dates doesn't change that fact. It never can or will.


Even if it was here for 10 years it killed almost 70 k in the past 2 months.

I’m not trying to change the outcomes on anything. But it leads to questions like what was different in the previous two months to the most recent two months? What happened to cause that rapid change in severe cases? Just bad luck on who got infected? Virus mutations?

Using your 10 year example, if the virus was here for 10 years relatively harmless then all of the sudden led to 70k deaths, you wouldn’t question what happened to cause that? Those are the types of things I think would change, the questions we ask and seek to answer.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Everyone else is wrong, I get it

Your article says 897 NEW hospitalizations a day average. Correct?

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

I’m not trying to change the outcomes on anything. But it leads to questions like what was different in the previous two months to the most recent two months? What happened to cause that rapid change in severe cases? Just bad luck on who got infected? Virus mutations?

Using your 10 year example, if the virus was here for 10 years relatively harmless then all of the sudden led to 70k deaths, you wouldn’t question what happened to cause that?

That's not the point.

You said if it's 70k dead in 4 months the thinking changes. 70k died in 2 months.

You actually moved the goals.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by DaFace

No, it won't just go away. But it's FAR easier to control when you push it down to a minimum before you start easing things up.

And as for population density, it's not like that's the only driver. We talk about NYC subways, but Seoul, SK is far more dense than NYC, and they've done very well.

Ah, one should take the South Korean numbers with at least a pinch of salt. I have dozens of family members over there and at least a dozen are doctors, and some of their information doesn't add up to what their government is telling the world. just saying.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by DaFace

No, it won't just go away. But it's FAR easier to control when you push it down to a minimum before you start easing things up.

And as for population density, it's not like that's the only driver. We talk about NYC subways, but Seoul, SK is far more dense than NYC, and they've done very well.

I won't disagree with that at all. But again what sounds good and what is feasible oftner are two different things.

SK did some things I think we should have by literally disinfecting cities. I mean I saw trucks like street sweepers going down the streets fogging the shit out of the place. NYC decided not to even sanitize the subways until 23k people died.

[Mecca]

Personally I think working from home is great, more companies should look into letting people do that.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

Your article says 897 NEW hospitalizations a day average. Correct?

New York saw a peak in hospitalizations on April 12 with 18,825, a number that has been declining ever since. Hospital bed capacity in the state is over 90,000, after Cuomo instructed hospitals to increase the previous 53,000-bed capacity.