***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[DaFace]

FWIW, here's an update I threw together of the March 25th IHME model and actual performance through April 28th:



That model was predicting 81,114 deaths through the end of July.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by limested

This is why other countries laugh at the United States.

among other things

[limested]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Exactly we will never reach herd immunity for heart disease and there will never be a vaccine.

I only bring it up to put it in perspective.

You are comparing apples to chickens.

[Pants]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

And that's how you get to herd immunity.

Yes, but you want to achieve that slowly or you risk overwhelming the medical system leading to a national disaster of massive proportions.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Exactly we will never reach herd immunity for heart disease and there will never be a vaccine.

I only bring it up to put it in perspective.

There may never be herd immunity or a vaccine for this either.

I realize many people die every day.

There's a reason those 70k dying in 2 months is a big deal.

NBA owners aren't throwing away millions for no reason. They really are ok with not seeing the season back up until the fall if at all.
NCAA didn't throw a billion in the trash for no reason.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by DaFace

FWIW, here's an update I threw together of the March 25th IHME model and actual performance through April 28th:

That actual line is ALL over the place, man...

[Baby Lee]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

just doesn't look like much social distancing is going on at least in some of those groups.

Before you start casting aspersions at legions of stupid people, read up on manipulating depth of field in photography.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by limested

This is why other countries laugh at the United States.

There is absolutely nothing invalid in what I am saying.

The point about who is most at risk, the numbers, all of it is valid discussion. I just find it interesting people lose their shit over a specific number and shrug off a greater number.

If 150K people die from this this year you are still 4x more likely to die from heart disease. I get the unknown part of it makes it scary but the truth is a very very small % of the country is at risk of dying even if they get it.

Nothing invalid about any of that. Its pragmatic.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by limested

You are comparing apples to chickens.

If all I had to go on was this thread...reading his posts he would get a wonderlic score of potato for his analogy here.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I will throw out the same argument but differently...

Why is a Covid-19 death of primarily an older person worse than a flu death of a child?

Yes, that's right. I went there. The life of a child is worth 4 lives of an elderly person.

I know the numbers aren't the same but you see what I did there to even them out.....

It isn't but the same people minimizing covid are the ones who minimize the flu and don't get their shots.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I will throw out the same argument but differently...

Why is a Covid-19 death of primarily an older person worse than a flu death of a child?

Yes, that's right. I went there. The life of a child is worth 4 lives of an elderly person.

I know the numbers aren't the same but you see what I did there to even them out.....

It's not worse. Hell if this had kids dying they would have locked everything down tight imo.


But there's a vaccine for the flu. And therapeutics.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

There may never be herd immunity or a vaccine for this either.

I realize many people die every day.

There's a reason those 70k dying in 2 months is a big deal.

NBA owners aren't throwing away millions for no reason. They really are ok with not seeing the season back up until the fall if at all.
NCAA didn't throw a billion in the trash for no reason.

And nobody is making the "no reason" argument.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

There is absolutely nothing invalid in what I am saying.

The point about who is most at risk, the numbers, all of it is valid discussion. I just find it interesting people lose their shit over a specific number and shrug off a greater number.

If 150K people die from this this year you are still 4x more likely to die from heart disease. I get the unknown part of it makes it scary but the truth is a very very small % of the country is at risk of dying even if they get it.

Nothing invalid about any of that. Its pragmatic.

Your comparison would be like if I compared people with genital warts to long term car accident victims.

[limested]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

There is absolutely nothing invalid in what I am saying.

The point about who is most at risk, the numbers, all of it is valid discussion. I just find it interesting people lose their shit over a specific number and shrug off a greater number.

If 150K people die from this this year you are still 4x more likely to die from heart disease. I get the unknown part of it makes it scary but the truth is a very very small % of the country is at risk of dying even if they get it.

Nothing invalid about any of that. Its pragmatic.

Yes there is. When heart disease becomes contagious and you can catch it by being in the same room as someone, or soon after they left the room, then you may have a valid comparison.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Donger

That actual line is ALL over the place, man...

You mean life doesn't move in a straight line all nice and neat like?