Chiefs Will Andy Reid break the all-time career record for wins as a head coach? - Page 2

**RealSNR** · 05-04-2020, 05:30 PM

The Don Shula thread got me thinking about this. Andy Reid is 125 wins behind tying Shula if you count the playoffs. RunKC mentioned in that thread the possibility that Andy would coach for another decade since he has Patrick Mahomes as his QB, so he doesn't have to spend sleepless nights figuring out how to win games with AJ Feeley as his QB.

"Andy's really fat! No way! He's gonna die!" Are you sure about that? That fat man has lasted this long as an NFL head coach and has yet to miss a single NFL game because of a health issue, fat and all. It's a super stressful job and the guy still insanely energetic. So let's throw that argument away and assume he does coach for another decade. Is that a realistic mark for him to break the record if he has Patrick Mahomes as his QB all of those years? He's 126 wins away from breaking Shula's record, and he's 62. Usually you would look at that task and go, "More than 12 wins per season for 10 straight seasons? Awfully tall task."

Well, not so fast. He gets a 17 game season for 8 or 9 of those years. Then you get the playoffs with Mahomes as your QB. And in any given year in which he comes in under the required yearly average for wins in the regular season, he'll most likely be at a 2 seed or worse, which in the new playoff structure gives him an opportunity to rack up an extra win against a theoretically easier playoff opponent.

So he DOES need to average 12.5 wins a year, but if he gets close to that number every season, the years in which he outright dominates should balance out the seasons where he doesn't hit the 12.5 wins mark.

He needs to do a lot better than his current career win percentage of .610 from here on out, but he's Andy Reid, and he's attempting this task with Patrick Mahomes, not McNabb, Garcia, Feeley, Vick, or Alex.

However, he's got one more obstacle in his way: Bill Belichick, who is 43 wins away. A couple of years ago I would have said, "He's going to shatter that." But once again, not so fast. George Halas and Marv Levy each hold the record for oldest NFL head coaches in history at 72. I know people are living longer and healthier these days, but I think I would apply that to someone like Pete Carroll. Bill Belichick? He just turned 68. And these days he probably tilts more towards the Andy Reid side of health than he does Pete Carroll. Additionally, he just handed the team over to some doofus named Garrett Shittem and didn't give him any kind of offensive support other than some extra TEs. I gather that they're going to be a run-first offense, but this is a little extreme. He might just wear out his welcome before those arbitrary 4 years he has to get to 43 wins and beyond.

Poll forthcoming

Megatron96 · 05-04-2020, 06:35 PM

I voted that he's going to do it. Why not? Think about all the records that he and Mahomes have already shattered in their short tenure together so far.

Most touchdown passes thrown through first two games of a season: 10
Most touchdown passes thrown through first three games of a season: 13
Most touchdown passes thrown through first three career games: 10
Most touchdown passes thrown through first eight career games: 22
Youngest quarterback to throw for six touchdowns in a game: 22 years, 364 days
Most consecutive road games with 3+ touchdown passes: 7
First player to throw for over 3,000 yards in his first ten games: 3,185
Most consecutive 300-plus passing yard games: 8 (tied)
Fastest player to 4,000 passing yards and 40+ touchdown passes: 13 games
Fastest to 7,500 career passing yards: 24 games

He's the only player in league history with more than 10 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in the postseason, and his playoff passer rating of 115.0 is the highest in modern NFL history by a margin of more than 12 points.

And the list goes on.

And let's not forget, through the first three games of the 2019 season, Pat Mahomes was on pace to throw for over 6,000 yds and 56 TDs.

Andy could ride the Mahomes train to an unprecedented winning percentage over the next 10 years. Say, something like average 15 wins/season? So why not? Why can't Andy surpass Shula? I'll be one of the first to just go ahead and jump on that train and say, yes, Andy's going to break that record right now.

TLO · 05-04-2020, 06:41 PM

I don't think he'll coach long enough for it to happen, unfortunately.

**srvy** · 05-04-2020, 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TLO

I don't think he'll coach long enough for it to happen, unfortunately.

Yeah I cant see Andy coaching 10+ more years. If he doesnt get control of his weight he might not get many more years in that stressful pressure cooker.

**RealSNR** · 05-04-2020, 07:44 PM

Look, I know the weight is a big deal, but sometimes people have insane genes for stamina and health. He's 62, has gone up and down in his weight like Oprah, and hasn't been at a target weight in probably over 25-30 years (apparently when he first started coaching in Green Bay he wasn't fat)

If the weight thing was going to get to him, don't you think we'd be seeing some health complications cropping up here and there? The man hasn't missed so much as a single goddamn practice due to a health concern in his 22 seasons as a head coach.

I think if he's fine, guys. If he wants to coach 10 more years, and the Chiefs keep offering him the job, he'll find a way to make it happen.

**srvy** · 05-04-2020, 07:50 PM

He is winded walking into press conferences. I know he isn't going to change but I wish he would for his sake get that weight off. I want him to coach Pat through his career.

Monticore · 05-04-2020, 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by srvy

He is winded walking into press conferences. I know he isn't going to change but I wish he would for his sake get that weight off. I want him to coach Pat through his career.

Bad knees , hips etc he has been a big dude since he was 11 and played football so it could be something minor like that.

**DaneMcCloud** · 05-04-2020, 08:17 PM

I think that it's very possible that Reid could surpass Shula but as of today, I don't think that will happen, mainly due to health reasons.

If he drops 70-80 pounds and can stay at a healthy weight, I think it's much more likely but unfortunately, I just don't think that will happen.

smithandrew051 · 05-04-2020, 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monticore

Bad knees , hips etc he has been a big dude since he was 11 and played football so it could be something minor like that.

You also forgot to mention that monster cock that he has to drag around

**cdcox** · 05-04-2020, 10:35 PM

Possible, but not at all likely.

Basileus777 · 05-04-2020, 10:58 PM

He'd need to coach another dozen years to do it. The odds are extremely low. There's a better chance Stidham puts Belichick's new record out of reach for the next few decades.

Halfcan · 05-04-2020, 11:02 PM

I hope Andy and Mahomes guide us to winning 7 of the next 10 Superbowls- then Andy retires on top.

scho63 · 05-05-2020, 02:26 AM

Not even close

PunkinDrublic · 05-05-2020, 02:28 AM

Before last season he was a borderline HOF coach. Now it’s all about cementing his legacy. Reid’s genius in his play calling is that he’s always evolving and borrowing from up and coming college OC’s. He’s like a chess grandmaster and the chiefs reap the benefits.

Mile High Mania · 05-05-2020, 07:32 AM

Andy Reid is 62 years old and is 121 wins behind Shula.

That's 12 wins on average for the next 10 years, meaning he is doing this until he is 72.

I don't see him being around that long.

Belichick is 68 years old and only 55 games behind Shula... he might make it, just depends on whether or not they fall off the absurd pace they've been on, which they likely will. Bill would have to average a 10+ wins over the next 5 years, meaning he's 73.

I just don't see either of them doing it at this point.

TomBarndtsTwin · 05-05-2020, 07:40 AM

No. Andy will retire before he could even catch Shula. And he’s not catching up with BB likely either.

Regarding BB, he might be able to catch Shula, but I don’t think he’s gonna stay in the coaching game ‘too long’ in order to do that. BB, as a much of a prick as he is, has a LOT of respect for Shula. I think there’s a part of him that doesn’t even necessarily want to pass him. Having the media spotlight on him, etc. Plus, he’s in for a rough few years with the Pats coming up. Not sure he’s gonna stick around a long time to captain that sinking ship.

View Poll Results: Does Andy Reid break the all-time record for wins as a head coach?
I think he can do it	14	11.67%
I think he can break Shula's record, but Belichick will leech on too long for Andy to surpass him	17	14.17%
Maybe. I guess? Dunno.	9	7.50%
It's probably not going to happen	80	66.67%
I have no opinion and don't care. I believe whatever Ubeja tells me to believe.	0	0%
Voters: 120. You may not vote on this poll

05-04-2020, 05:30 PM
RealSNR Special Teams ACE!!! Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Where the hell is SNR Casino cash: $-1484792	Will Andy Reid break the all-time career record for wins as a head coach? The Don Shula thread got me thinking about this. Andy Reid is 125 wins behind tying Shula if you count the playoffs. RunKC mentioned in that thread the possibility that Andy would coach for another decade since he has Patrick Mahomes as his QB, so he doesn't have to spend sleepless nights figuring out how to win games with AJ Feeley as his QB. "Andy's really fat! No way! He's gonna die!" Are you sure about that? That fat man has lasted this long as an NFL head coach and has yet to miss a single NFL game because of a health issue, fat and all. It's a super stressful job and the guy still insanely energetic. So let's throw that argument away and assume he does coach for another decade. Is that a realistic mark for him to break the record if he has Patrick Mahomes as his QB all of those years? He's 126 wins away from breaking Shula's record, and he's 62. Usually you would look at that task and go, "More than 12 wins per season for 10 straight seasons? Awfully tall task." Well, not so fast. He gets a 17 game season for 8 or 9 of those years. Then you get the playoffs with Mahomes as your QB. And in any given year in which he comes in under the required yearly average for wins in the regular season, he'll most likely be at a 2 seed or worse, which in the new playoff structure gives him an opportunity to rack up an extra win against a theoretically easier playoff opponent. So he DOES need to average 12.5 wins a year, but if he gets close to that number every season, the years in which he outright dominates should balance out the seasons where he doesn't hit the 12.5 wins mark. He needs to do a lot better than his current career win percentage of .610 from here on out, but he's Andy Reid, and he's attempting this task with Patrick Mahomes, not McNabb, Garcia, Feeley, Vick, or Alex. However, he's got one more obstacle in his way: Bill Belichick, who is 43 wins away. A couple of years ago I would have said, "He's going to shatter that." But once again, not so fast. George Halas and Marv Levy each hold the record for oldest NFL head coaches in history at 72. I know people are living longer and healthier these days, but I think I would apply that to someone like Pete Carroll. Bill Belichick? He just turned 68. And these days he probably tilts more towards the Andy Reid side of health than he does Pete Carroll. Additionally, he just handed the team over to some doofus named Garrett Shittem and didn't give him any kind of offensive support other than some extra TEs. I gather that they're going to be a run-first offense, but this is a little extreme. He might just wear out his welcome before those arbitrary 4 years he has to get to 43 wins and beyond. Poll forthcoming
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05-04-2020, 06:35 PM	#16
Megatron96 Suupraa Geniuuusss Join Date: Jan 2019 Location: North Phoenix, AZ Casino cash: $-1909600	I voted that he's going to do it. Why not? Think about all the records that he and Mahomes have already shattered in their short tenure together so far. Most touchdown passes thrown through first two games of a season: 10 Most touchdown passes thrown through first three games of a season: 13 Most touchdown passes thrown through first three career games: 10 Most touchdown passes thrown through first eight career games: 22 Youngest quarterback to throw for six touchdowns in a game: 22 years, 364 days Most consecutive road games with 3+ touchdown passes: 7 First player to throw for over 3,000 yards in his first ten games: 3,185 Most consecutive 300-plus passing yard games: 8 (tied) Fastest player to 4,000 passing yards and 40+ touchdown passes: 13 games Fastest to 7,500 career passing yards: 24 games He's the only player in league history with more than 10 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in the postseason, and his playoff passer rating of 115.0 is the highest in modern NFL history by a margin of more than 12 points. And the list goes on. And let's not forget, through the first three games of the 2019 season, Pat Mahomes was on pace to throw for over 6,000 yds and 56 TDs. Andy could ride the Mahomes train to an unprecedented winning percentage over the next 10 years. Say, something like average 15 wins/season? So why not? Why can't Andy surpass Shula? I'll be one of the first to just go ahead and jump on that train and say, yes, Andy's going to break that record right now. Last edited by Megatron96; 05-04-2020 at 06:42 PM..
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05-04-2020, 06:41 PM	#17
TLO Life is changing.. Join Date: Jul 2012 Location: NW Missouri Casino cash: $-2540000	I don't think he'll coach long enough for it to happen, unfortunately.
Posts: 43,100

05-04-2020, 07:50 PM	#20
srvy Fight, build, win! Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: KC Casino cash: $-2188750	He is winded walking into press conferences. I know he isn't going to change but I wish he would for his sake get that weight off. I want him to coach Pat through his career. __________________ "The victim stance is a powerful one. The victim is always morally right, neither responsible nor accountable, and forever entitled to sympathy."
Posts: 25,859

05-04-2020, 08:17 PM	#22
DaneMcCloud Supporter Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Hollywood, CA Casino cash: $10053648	I think that it's very possible that Reid could surpass Shula but as of today, I don't think that will happen, mainly due to health reasons. If he drops 70-80 pounds and can stay at a healthy weight, I think it's much more likely but unfortunately, I just don't think that will happen.
Posts: 88,960

05-04-2020, 10:35 PM	#24
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $-558231	Possible, but not at all likely.
Posts: 46,032

05-04-2020, 10:58 PM	#25
Basileus777 MVP Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: New Jersey Casino cash: $2245958	He'd need to coach another dozen years to do it. The odds are extremely low. There's a better chance Stidham puts Belichick's new record out of reach for the next few decades.
Posts: 9,419

05-04-2020, 11:02 PM	#26
Halfcan In Search of a Life Join Date: Aug 2005 Casino cash: $7327995	I hope Andy and Mahomes guide us to winning 7 of the next 10 Superbowls- then Andy retires on top.
Posts: 43,200

05-05-2020, 02:26 AM	#27
scho63 Politically Incorrect Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Scottsdale, AZ Casino cash: $-890000	Not even close __________________ *"The only difference between sex for free and sex for money is that sex for free costs you a WHOLE LOT more!"* ~Redd Foxx~ ~~2018 2019 2020 20212022 2023~~ 2024 Adopt a Chief - Clark Hunt and Brett Veach "The men who drafted Patrick Mahomes"
Posts: 55,069

05-05-2020, 02:28 AM	#28
PunkinDrublic Stay down bitch! Join Date: Jun 2001 Location: Plano, TX Casino cash: $4360670	Before last season he was a borderline HOF coach. Now it’s all about cementing his legacy. Reid’s genius in his play calling is that he’s always evolving and borrowing from up and coming college OC’s. He’s like a chess grandmaster and the chiefs reap the benefits. __________________ Disappointing my parents since 1976
Posts: 9,552

05-05-2020, 07:32 AM	#29
Mile High Mania #triggering Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Tejas Casino cash: $947229	Andy Reid is 62 years old and is 121 wins behind Shula. That's 12 wins on average for the next 10 years, meaning he is doing this until he is 72. I don't see him being around that long. Belichick is 68 years old and only 55 games behind Shula... he might make it, just depends on whether or not they fall off the absurd pace they've been on, which they likely will. Bill would have to average a 10+ wins over the next 5 years, meaning he's 73. I just don't see either of them doing it at this point. __________________
Posts: 30,910

05-05-2020, 07:40 AM	#30
TomBarndtsTwin MVP Join Date: Mar 2013 Casino cash: $2349883	No. Andy will retire before he could even catch Shula. And he’s not catching up with BB likely either. Regarding BB, he might be able to catch Shula, but I don’t think he’s gonna stay in the coaching game ‘too long’ in order to do that. BB, as a much of a prick as he is, has a LOT of respect for Shula. I think there’s a part of him that doesn’t even necessarily want to pass him. Having the media spotlight on him, etc. Plus, he’s in for a rough few years with the Pats coming up. Not sure he’s gonna stick around a long time to captain that sinking ship.
Posts: 10,273