***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by O.city

So the New York cases and hospitalizations and such are going down very quickly. Why is it happening there? Are they just that much better at social distancing?

It seems like a lot of the "hot spots" have hit a point where things suddenly start to drop rapidly. Perhaps once things start to get really dire people start taking social distancing very seriously?

I think there's also likely SOME impact to "herd immunity" in isolated groups as well. For example, it's hard to imagine that there are many hospital workers in NYC right now who haven't already been exposed to it. Again, that doesn't necessarily help the nation as a whole unless we just let it run wild, but it might be an indicator that there's some limit to growth.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

So the New York cases and hospitalizations and such are going down very quickly. Why is it happening there? Are they just that much better at social distancing?

Something you might be interested in too - Missouri is supposed to be launching a new website this week, which is going to have a ton of Missouri specific data, including in house models Missouri has been using to base decisions on reopening the state.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Here is what Dr Fauci has repeatedly said about flattening the curve

Is this true for all viruses, say such as the flu?

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I think there's also likely SOME impact to "herd immunity" in isolated groups as well. For example, it's hard to imagine that there are many hospital workers in NYC right now who haven't already been exposed to it. Again, that doesn't necessarily help the nation as a whole unless we just let it run wild, but it might be an indicator that there's some limit to growth.

Actually I think we can already conclude that based on the rate of infection in the world.

We are at 3.6 Million confirmed cases, shouldn't that have been doubling?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

It seems like a lot of the "hot spots" have hit a point where things suddenly start to drop rapidly. Perhaps once things start to get really dire people start taking social distancing very seriously?

I think there's also likely SOME impact to "herd immunity" in isolated groups as well. For example, it's hard to imagine that there are many hospital workers in NYC right now who haven't already been exposed to it. Again, that doesn't necessarily help the nation as a whole unless we just let it run wild, but it might be an indicator that there's some limit to growth.

The thing with the "we need 60% for immunity" thing is that it assumes every is susceptible or will get it. There's a few studies creeping out that it may not be nearly that high for that to be the case.

NY might be an example of that?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Sure enjoy staying indoors for years. Lmao

Just making a correction.

Now, in the real world, you can do plenty to minimize the odds of being infected, which is precisely why mitigation efforts were introduced.

This is so simple, it boggles my mind that there are people out there who don't understand it.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Donger

Just making a correction.

Now, in the real world, you can do plenty to minimize the odds of being infected, which is precisely why mitigation efforts were introduced.

This is so simple, it boggles my mind that there are people out there who don't understand it.

You're arguing a point no one made, but /Dongerthings

Again if you think that you are going to stop the infection enjoy staying inside of years. Because this thing will continue to be spread around just like the flu every year.

I wouldn't hold out hope for a vaccine either.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I still primarily focus on deaths. It's tough because it's a lagging indicator, but cases is just too dependent on testing rates to make a lot of sense of.

Originally Posted by O.city

I've started following some of the model making types on twitter and they say the same. Something along the lines of how they're reported etc.

I have heard several say focus on deaths and hospitalizations and not necessarily cases.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Actually I think we can already conclude that based on the rate of infection in the world.

We are at 3.6 Million confirmed cases, shouldn't that have been doubling?

Well, no. That's why everyone's doing travel restrictions and social distancing. If everything were wide open still, it'd probably be close to the original pace as it continues to creep into untouched areas.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by TLO

Do you keep track of other foods you eat?

Slices of pizza?
Hot dogs?
Popsicles?

Hot dogs? Rarely. Popsicles and any thing with sugar? Never.

There's a great pizza place in Hollywood that not only bakes great pizza but does Take & Bake as well. We purchased from there 5 times last year and I probably had close to 10 pieces all year.

We're chicken, fish, vegetable and fruit people. I replaced eggs with egg whites way back in 2008 and try to eat 4 avocados a week and a green apple every day. My biggest "vice" is chips and salsa, although I've really cut back in the past 20 months or so to maybe once every 10-12 days.

Diet is directly related to health, which is probably why I haven't been sick with a cold or flu since 2015, even with kids in preschool, elementary and middle school during that time.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

You're arguing a point no one made, but /Dongerthings

Again if you think that you are going to stop the infection enjoy staying inside of years. Because this thing will continue to be spread around just like the flu every year.

I wouldn't hold out hope for a vaccine either.

It wasn't an argument. It was a statement of fact. But, like I said, perhaps it's too simple for some people to understand.

Again, if everyone did stay away from other people, this would very quickly be gone. But, that's not practical or feasible. You do realize that this is spread by human contact, right?

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by Donger

Now, in the real world, you can do plenty to minimize the odds of being infected, which is precisely why mitigation efforts were introduced.

Maybe in your fantasy world people can continue to remain shut-in at their homes, but things such as jobs, kids, etc, will require most people to re-emerge back into society and get exposed to the virus.

[ghak99]

Originally Posted by Donger

You said, "Getting infected is unavoidable." That means you think everyone will get it.

Of course you can hide from it.

For the normal person, it is. You can't control your environment to the point that it would be avoidable and still live a normal life for the next 5 decades or however long you live.

If you want to revisit this post vaccine or self destruction have at it.

[DaFace]

As an interesting hypothetical for those strongly in the "open everything up" camp:

Would you welcome a group of 10 tourists from NYC to come and dine at your favorite restaurant in your community next week? If not, what restrictions would you want to remain in place?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

Maybe in your fantasy world people can continue to remain shut-in at their homes, but things such as jobs, kids, etc, will require most people to re-emerge back into society and get exposed to the virus.

Yes, that will happen, I agree.