***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

It increases up to April 20th, begins decreasing, restrictions are lifted while cases have decreased for a few days (but not the 14 recommended by the CDC) and then begins a slow ascent again.

The 14 day average is about the same as it was a few days before the re-opening. And as I asked are they testing more?

This is my problem with these arguments, Hamas. I am not saying you are making it per say but people want more testing which we know will increase the number of cases. Then when we get the expected increase people wanna go SEE! SEE!

So I have to point out that the average is relatively flat at the moment and if GA is testing more wouldn't you expect an increase in cases regardless?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by 007

No. They open in Kansas this Monday. Yet bars and taverns can't. They were all supposed to open and she changed it today.

Oh you mean this coming Monday. Yeah, I don't get the bars thing really either but then again I have thrown my hands up with all this shit. Some of this seems to be a pissing contest between states (see CA and Los Angeles) on who will be the one to say they "did it right" and some seems to be temper tantrum based like Michigan.

I say we go back to the original metric of are people flooding our hospitals or not? And right now the answer is not.

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Regarding your Georgia claim:



That's the actual rolling average.

"Georgia reopened April 24 with Phase One. Since reopening, the state has seen a steady increase in cases."

Are you even looking at the graph you posted? It is clearly NOT showing an increase.

Since you apparently can’t comprehend basic graphical evidence, I’ll provide you with the description to the graph from the website you got this from...

Link: https://www.firstcoastnews.com/mobil...b-62665d3fb257

The above graph shows the new daily cases in Georgia since March 21 until today.
The 14-day moving average started its downward trend around the third week of april, right before Phase One reopening began, marked by the red bar. The daily new cases have leveled off over the past two weeks, as seen in orange.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

Are you even looking at the graph you posted? It is clearly NOT showing an increase.

Since you apparently can’t comprehend basic graphical evidence, I’ll provide you with the description to the graph from the website you got this from...

Link: https://www.firstcoastnews.com/mobil...b-62665d3fb257

It is not showing an increase but it is leaning towards increasing if you want to nit-pick. That being said the question is why? Are they testing more and showing more cases because of that? Or are you truly getting more cases because you re-opened?

The chart is a poor argument for either.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

Are you even looking at the graph you posted? It is clearly NOT showing an increase.

Since you apparently can’t comprehend basic graphical evidence, I’ll provide you with the description to the graph from the website you got this from...

Link: https://www.firstcoastnews.com/mobil...b-62665d3fb257

FTR, testing had started to increase significantly in GA about 2 days before the re-opening and is still on it's strongest upward trajectory.

So it can easily be assumed that the number of increased cases is largely due to increased testing.

[petegz28]

Also "confirmed infections" between April 23rd (re-opening) and May 10th in GA are actually down by almost 50.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

Two weeks... i.e. the standard time-frame for when people are contagious and/or potentially become symptomatic if infected... since Georgia re-opened and every metric... rate of new cases, hospitalizations and deaths have trended downwards.

You seem intent on being irrationally negative without the basis of facts or consistent logic.

Are you required to wear a mask at the gas station where you work?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Are you required to wear a mask at the gas station where you work?

Huffing gas fumes kills the virus....true story

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by petegz28

The 14 day average is about the same as it was a few days before the re-opening. And as I asked are they testing more?

This is my problem with these arguments, Hamas. I am not saying you are making it per say but people want more testing which we know will increase the number of cases. Then when we get the expected increase people wanna go SEE! SEE!

So I have to point out that the average is relatively flat at the moment and if GA is testing more wouldn't you expect an increase in cases regardless?

Thought experiment: I give you a pill. You take it with some water. Are you absorbing the drug or getting rid of it? You're actually doing both at the same time, but the rate of absorption compared to the rate of elimination affects the amount of drug in your blood.

If you are absorbing it faster than your are eliminating it, the levels go up. If you've taken the drug for a while and I start giving you a smaller dose, even though you're absorbing the drug, your levels will go down because you're eliminating more than you're absorbing.

The population is doing the same thing.

Let's go back to our old friend R0 and let's assume that the virus goes away after 14 days and people only transmit the virus over five days.

Say I have a virus with 10,000 active cases and I institute a lockdown. It gets the R0 to 0.8. After five days, those 10,000 people infect 8,000 more and those 8,000 infect 6400 more, and those 6400 infect 5120 more and those 5120 infect 4096 more.

Over 20 days, 23616 people have caught the virus who didn't have it before for a total of 33,616 cases.

Is the epidemic getting better or worse? It looks like it's getting worse on the surface because the caseload is higher, but it's actually dying out. I only have 15,616 active cases and in another five days I'll have 3277 more, but 6400 will have recovered.

Day 25: Active cases: 18,893-6400=12,493

Now, let's say that I break the lockdown on that day and the R0 increases to 1.2

After 5 days how many active cases do I have?

Day 30: Active cases 12,493-5120+3932=11,305

I have fewer active cases on Day 30, so my epidemic is getting better right?

It's not.

What I've done with the lockdown is decrease my R0, and I've also decreased the number of infectious people, but by reopening I've increased R0 and increased infections, but the increase is being hidden by the decrease from the previous cases who are getting better, because it decreases the pool of people who can infect others, but only for a while.

After five iterations of an R0 of 0.8:

10,000 people infect 8,000 who infect 6400 who infect 5120 who infect 4096

After five iterations of R0 of 1.2

4096 infect 4915 who infect 5898 who infect 7077 who infect 8493

Now, if I look at it after two iterations, which is worse?

On the surface the R0 of 0.8, right? 6400 new infections compared to 5898.

But that's not the case.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Really interesting article published in Science about the epidemic in France

Key points:

1) The lockdown reduced the R0 from 2.9 to 0.67
2) IFR was 0.7%, increasing with age as one might expect
3) 3.6% of cases were hospitalized and of those approximately 20% die
4) They estimate 4.4% of the population is infected, which is insufficient to prevent a second wave

https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...cience.abc3517

"Assuming a basic reproductive number of R0 = 3.0, it would require around 65% of the population to be immune for the epidemic to be controlled by immunity alone. Our results therefore strongly suggest that, without a vaccine, herd immunity on its own will be insufficient to avoid a second wave at the end of the lockdown. Efficient control measures need to be maintained beyond the 11 May."

"Our model can help inform the ongoing and future response to COVID-19. National ICU daily admissions have gone from 700 at the end of March to 66 on 7 May. Hospital admissions have declined from 3600 to 357 over the same time period"

That's why countries did what they did.

[Titty Meat]

Looks like Texas has kicked ass with the reopening. Great job!

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Huffing gas fumes kills the virus....true story

You should do it then

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Really interesting article published in Science about the epidemic in France

Key points:

1) The lockdown reduced the R0 from 2.9 to 0.67
2) IFR was 0.7%, increasing with age as one might expect
3) 3.6% of cases were hospitalized and of those approximately 20% die
4) They estimate 4.4% of the population is infected, which is insufficient to prevent a second wave

https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...cience.abc3517

"Assuming a basic reproductive number of R0 = 3.0, it would require around 65% of the population to be immune for the epidemic to be controlled by immunity alone. Our results therefore strongly suggest that, without a vaccine, herd immunity on its own will be insufficient to avoid a second wave at the end of the lockdown. Efficient control measures need to be maintained beyond the 11 May."

"Our model can help inform the ongoing and future response to COVID-19. National ICU daily admissions have gone from 700 at the end of March to 66 on 7 May. Hospital admissions have declined from 3600 to 357 over the same time period"

That's why countries did what they did.

Are you seriously this dense or just intentionally myopic in your thought process?

Yes when you impose draconian social distancing measures, shutting down society and putting people under virtual house arrest you are going to slow the spread of a contagious respiratory disease.

If you ban all driving you can eliminate all car accident deaths as well.

Is it worth destroying livelihoods to achieve these goals?

Most rational people would say no.

Even with the reduced spread of the virus from the lockdown measures, that still did not prevent COVID-19 from getting into nursing homes. Also 66% of new hospitalizations from COVID-19 in New York last week were people who were social distancing at home.

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by petegz28

It is not showing an increase but it is leaning towards increasing if you want to nit-pick. That being said the question is why? Are they testing more and showing more cases because of that? Or are you truly getting more cases because you re-opened?

The chart is a poor argument for either.

Directly from the source... the Georgia Department of Public Health... the average daily increase in new cases has gone down.

Link: https://www.11alive.com/mobile/artic...6-ab32a15a1531

There have been 34,002 cases confirmed in Georgia, with the state's earliest reported case on Feb. 1. Over the last 14 days, the average daily increase in newly confirmed cases was 654.14. Over the previous 14-day period, the average daily increase in newly confirmed cases was 689.07.

[OrtonsPiercedTaint]

There are penises in my garden. With raccoons attached to them.