***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by Monticore

If proven safe you still would not get it to protect friends and family?

By the time it’s proven safe and effective long term I don’t think it will be necessary any longer.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

By the time it’s proven safe I don’t think it will be necessary any longer.

You think it will disappear or that your community acquire immunity will last forever?

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

By the time it’s proven safe and effective long term I don’t think it will be necessary any longer.

People continue to think that contracting the virus and getting permanent immunity go hand in hand.

That’s not yet proven true.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by lewdog

People continue to think that contracting the virus and getting permanent immunity go hand in hand.

That’s not yet proven true.

Though it is most likely I agree so here is the take away from all of this that everyone should have; this virus is never going away. You will get this at some point in your life just like you get the cold or the flu. It is going to happen. Unless we somehow figure out literally how to kill it, you will now learn to live with it.

We have flu vaccines and people who get them still get the flu. People get colds every year. The most we can hope for is the virus eventually mutates to a less virulent form and we develop effective treatments for it.

But again at this point in time you are probably fooling yourself thinking you are never going to get this.

And that is the take I heard from a group of medical professionals yesterday so do with it what you will.

And just to clarify as they pointed out, if you get it you will most likely not be a critical case unless you have an underlying condition or are otherwise at high risk.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Though it is most likely I agree so here is the take away from all of this that everyone should have; this virus is never going away. You will get this at some point in your life just like you get the cold or the flu. It is going to happen. Unless we somehow figure out literally how to kill it, you will now learn to live with it.

We have flu vaccines and people who get them still get the flu. People get colds every year. The most we can hope for is the virus eventually mutates to a less virulent form and we develop effective treatments for it.

But again at this point in time you are probably fooling yourself thinking you are never going to get this.

And that is the take I heard from a group of medical professionals yesterday so do with it what you will.

And just to clarify as they pointed out, if you get it you will most likely not be a critical case unless you have an underlying condition or are otherwise at high risk.

If the vaccine provides immunity for 2-3 years it's definitely feasible that you could largely eradicate it in developed countries, because it's not nearly as contagious as the measles, and anti-vax idiots aren't numerous enough to provide a sufficient reservoir.

The flu is a poor comparison because there are four strains that we vaccinate for and all have substantial antigenic shift.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Though it is most likely I agree so here is the take away from all of this that everyone should have; this virus is never going away. You will get this at some point in your life just like you get the cold or the flu. It is going to happen. Unless we somehow figure out literally how to kill it, you will now learn to live with it.

We have flu vaccines and people who get them still get the flu. People get colds every year. The most we can hope for is the virus eventually mutates to a less virulent form and we develop effective treatments for it.

But again at this point in time you are probably fooling yourself thinking you are never going to get this.

And that is the take I heard from a group of medical professionals yesterday so do with it what you will.

And just to clarify as they pointed out, if you get it you will most likely not be a critical case unless you have an underlying condition or are otherwise at high risk.

Not everyone has gotten influenza and some might never get it.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Not everyone has gotten influenza and some might never get it.

Really, that's what you are rolling with? At any other time you are saying how much more contagious this is than the flu and now you roll this out?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Really, that's what you are rolling with? At any other time you are saying how much more contagious this is than the flu and now you roll this out?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

because of the vaccine pete, with everything you have read in here there doesn't seem to be much that you retain.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

If the vaccine provides immunity for 2-3 years it's definitely feasible that you could largely eradicate it in developed countries, because it's not nearly as contagious as the measles, and anti-vax idiots aren't numerous enough to provide a sufficient reservoir.

The flu is a poor comparison because there are four strains that we vaccinate for and all have substantial antigenic shift.

Yeah well If and when. Thus the qualification of at this point in time.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Monticore

because of the vaccine pete, with everything you have read in here there doesn't seem to be much that you retain.

Well that's super except we dont have a vaccine for this and apparently this group of people weren't going to assume we are guaranteed to have one.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[POND_OF_RED]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

If the vaccine provides immunity for 2-3 years it's definitely feasible that you could largely eradicate it in developed countries, because it's not nearly as contagious as the measles, and anti-vax idiots aren't numerous enough to provide a sufficient reservoir.

The flu is a poor comparison because there are four strains that we vaccinate for and all have substantial antigenic shift.

When would you feel safe taking the vaccine? Just curious and I’m sure you’ve stated before but I’m not digging through all these pages. Most of the pharmacists I’ve worked with have been strongly against taking any vaccine that’s rushed before the end of next summer. They all obviously want one, but are very hesitant on the lack of research with anything rushed. Some of them even told me they’d want to wait at least 3 years from now.

[limested]

Originally Posted by POND_OF_RED

When would you feel safe taking the vaccine? Just curious and I’m sure you’ve stated before but I’m not digging through all these pages. Most of the pharmacists I’ve worked with have been strongly against taking any vaccine that’s rushed before the end of next summer. They all obviously want one, but are very hesitant on the lack of research with anything rushed. Some of them even told me they’d want to wait at least 3 years from now.

I will not volunteer to get a concoction injected into me that has been rushed. I would rather take my chances with the actual virus over a possibly half assed man made substance.

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by POND_OF_RED

When would you feel safe taking the vaccine? Just curious and I’m sure you’ve stated before but I’m not digging through all these pages. Most of the pharmacists I’ve worked with have been strongly against taking any vaccine that’s rushed before the end of next summer. They all obviously want one, but are very hesitant on the lack of research with anything rushed. Some of them even told me they’d want to wait at least 3 years from now.

If a vaccine does arrive there is going to be so much shaming of people who don’t want it right away.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Well that's super except we dont have a vaccine for this and apparently this group of people weren't going to assume we are guaranteed to have one.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Letting a virus run wild is not the answer for all viruses and at this point in time they are taking a cautious approach so it doesn’t get out of control to mitigate loss of life , I understand the economic impact as well , having a viruses run wild could potentially damage the economy as well they are trying to balance the two , in every Country not just yours , some are trying to find a political angle in this But I don’t think Norway or who ever is doing this with an American political agenda behind it.

What would you recommend Pete , a referendum? Flip a coin?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by POND_OF_RED

When would you feel safe taking the vaccine? Just curious and I’m sure you’ve stated before but I’m not digging through all these pages. Most of the pharmacists I’ve worked with have been strongly against taking any vaccine that’s rushed before the end of next summer. They all obviously want one, but are very hesitant on the lack of research with anything rushed. Some of them even told me they’d want to wait at least 3 years from now.

Post-marketing surveillance will bring forth rare issues you won't see in even large RCT. However, it's pretty simple to me: number needed to treat vs number needed to harm vs the fatality rate of the disease.

If the NNT is lower than NNH and the NNH translates to a lower percentage than the fatality rate for my cohort, I'd get the vaccine.